Fantasy Football Expected Points & Opportunity: Week 14
Welcome to the Expected Points & Opportunity article for Week 14!
In this article, we will use my Expected Fantasy Points model to highlight the most valuable players at each position. Naturally, volume matters tremendously for fantasy football. However, it is important to remember that not every opportunity is created equal and that a player’s value will vary based on their usage and their team’s offensive ecosystem. Expected Fantasy Points will take those variables into account to quantify each player’s projected fantasy value based on the down, distance, depth, and location of their opportunities.
The key metrics used in this article are:
- Expected Fantasy Points (or xFP): The average (or expected) fantasy value of a player’s opportunities. This metric is synonymous with volume.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE): The difference between a player’s actual fantasy production and their Expected Fantasy Points. This metric is synonymous with efficiency and is subject to regression week over week.
What do these metrics tell us?
- My model analyzes fantasy production in terms of volume (xFP) and efficiency (FPOE).
- Players with high xFP are more likely to produce consistently, while players who rely too heavily on FPOE may experience volatility in their production. In other words, we want to target players that rank highly in xFP.
- xFP is by far the more stable and predictive metric. However, it is not a ranking system. It is only one part of the equation and should be used in conjunction with other metrics for a holistic view.
- While I caution investing in players who rely on FPOE, I would NOT avoid them entirely. Players who depend on efficiency simply have a higher range of outcomes. In other words, these players can simultaneously raise the ceiling and lower the floor of your DFS lineups.
If you are newer to this series, be sure to check out my full series primer where I break down my Expected Fantasy Points model in more detail. The full version of this article is available only in the DFS Pass.
If you have any additional questions, feel free to reach out on Bluesky @MarvinJE or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.
RUNNING BACKS
- Tony Pollard did not make the chart above as he is currently the RB31 in points per game over the last four weeks. However, he remains an RB2 in usage value, ranking as the RB23 in Expected Fantasy Points with 11.2. Keep in mind that value is slightly deflated as the Titans were down 28 points early against the Commanders, which naturally impacted Pollard’s usage and led to an inefficient performance in Week 13. He should bounce back this week as the Titans face a Jaguars team that will be without Trevor Lawrence. That should lead to a positive game script for Pollard as Tennessee is currently favored by 3.5 points. In fact, on a per-game basis, Jacksonville allows the third-most expected fantasy points (22.9), seventh-most carries (23.1), and fifth-most fantasy points over expected (+2.47) to the running back position this season. As a result, Pollard should easily finish the week as a top-20 option, with the upside to finish as an RB1 in a very favorable matchup.
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