Fantasy Football Expected Points & Opportunity: Week 12
Welcome to the Expected Points & Opportunity article for Week 12!
In this article, we will use my Expected Fantasy Points model to highlight the most valuable players at each position. Naturally, volume matters tremendously for fantasy football. However, it is important to remember that not every opportunity is created equal and that a player’s value will vary based on their usage and their team’s offensive ecosystem. Expected Fantasy Points will take those variables into account to quantify each player’s projected fantasy value based on the down, distance, depth, and location of their opportunities.
The key metrics used in this article are:
- Expected Fantasy Points (or xFP): The average (or expected) fantasy value of a player’s opportunities. This metric is synonymous with volume.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE): The difference between a player’s actual fantasy production and their Expected Fantasy Points. This metric is synonymous with efficiency and is subject to regression week over week.
What do these metrics tell us?
- My model analyzes fantasy production in terms of volume (xFP) and efficiency (FPOE).
- Players with high xFP are more likely to produce consistently, while players who rely too heavily on FPOE may experience volatility in their production. In other words, we want to target players that rank highly in xFP.
- xFP is by far the more stable and predictive metric. However, it is not a ranking system. It is only one part of the equation and should be used in conjunction with other metrics for a holistic view.
- While I caution investing in players who rely on FPOE, I would NOT avoid them entirely. Players who depend on efficiency simply have a higher range of outcomes. In other words, these players can simultaneously raise the ceiling and lower the floor of your DFS lineups.
If you are newer to this series, be sure to check out my full series primer where I break down my Expected Fantasy Points model in more detail. The full version of this article is available only in the DFS Pass.
If you have any additional questions, feel free to reach out on Bluesky @MarvinJE or Twitter @FF_MarvinE
RUNNING BACKS
- Tyrone Tracy has been a focal point of the Giants’ offense since taking over the starting job earlier this season. Since then, Tracy has received at least 15 opportunities in five of his last six games, ranking within the top 25 in Expected Fantasy Points since Week 8. As you can see above, that led to an average of 14.7 half-PPR points, as Tracy finished as an RB1 twice in that timespan. As a result, I expect another productive performance out of Tracy as the Giants host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a team that has allowed the sixth most fantasy points per game to running backs this season. In addition, Tampa Bay also ranks in the bottom six in EPA per Play (0.03) and Success Rate (43.1%) allowed to the running back position. Of course, the wildcard in this matchup will be Tommy DeVito and his ability to sustain drives, hopefully giving Tracy enough opportunities to produce. On a positive note, when DeVito was a starter last year, he targeted the running back position at a 21% rate—which should bode well for Tracy who leads the Giants’ backfield in route participation (52%) since taking it over. As a result, while DeVito does lower the floor of this offense, I still expect Tracy to produce in what should be a favorable matchup.
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