Fantasy Football Expected Points & Opportunity: Week 11

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Welcome to the Expected Points & Opportunity article for Week 11!

In this article, we will use my Expected Fantasy Points model to highlight the most valuable players at each position. Naturally, volume matters tremendously for fantasy football. However, it is important to remember that not every opportunity is created equal and that a player’s value will vary based on their usage and their team’s offensive ecosystem. Expected Fantasy Points will take those variables into account to quantify each player’s projected fantasy value based on the down, distance, depth, and location of their opportunities.

The key metrics used in this article are:

  • Expected Fantasy Points (or xFP): The average (or expected) fantasy value of a player’s opportunities. This metric is synonymous with volume.
  • Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE): The difference between a player’s actual fantasy production and their Expected Fantasy Points. This metric is synonymous with efficiency and is subject to regression week over week.

What do these metrics tell us?

  • My model analyzes fantasy production in terms of volume (xFP) and efficiency (FPOE).
  • Players with high xFP are more likely to produce consistently, while players who rely too heavily on FPOE may experience volatility in their production. In other words, we want to target players that rank highly in xFP.
  • xFP is by far the more stable and predictive metric. However, it is not a ranking system. It is only one part of the equation and should be used in conjunction with other metrics for a holistic view.
  • While I caution investing in players who rely on FPOE, I would NOT avoid them entirely. Players who depend on efficiency simply have a higher range of outcomes. In other words, these players can simultaneously raise the ceiling and lower the floor of your DFS lineups.
  • If you are newer to this series, be sure to check out my full series primer where I break down my Expected Fantasy Points model in more detail. The full version of this article is available only in the DFS Pass.

If you have any additional questions, feel free to reach out on X or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.

RUNNING BACKS

Running backs fantasy usage and efficiency stat table

  • Kareem Hunt is due for some positive regression coming off his most inefficient performance in Week 10. Against a tougher Broncos defense, Hunt received 24 opportunities and led the team in Expected Fantasy Points at 22.1 xFP. However, he finished with -8.6 fantasy points over expected as he finished with only 13.5 half-PPR points. In other words, Hunt could have had a much more productive performance, especially if he converted on any of his three opportunities inside the five-yard line. As a result, I fully expect Hunt to have a much more successful game in Week 11 as the Chiefs face a Buffalo Bills defense that allows the second-most schedule-adjusted points to the running back position, recently allowing top 15 performances to Jonathan Taylor and De’Von Achane. In addition, considering he is also the RB2 in my usage model with 18.9 Expected Points over the last four weeks, Hunt should be locked in for an RB1 performance in Week 11. 

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