Fantasy Football Expected Points & Opportunity: Week 10

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Welcome to the Expected Points & Opportunity article for Week 10!

In this article, we will use my Expected Fantasy Points model to highlight the most valuable players at every position over the last few games. As you already know, volume matters tremendously for fantasy football. However, it is important to remember that not every opportunity is created equal and that a player’s value will vary based on their unique usage and offensive ecosystem. Expected Fantasy Points can help quantify each player’s projected fantasy value based on a variety of factors – such as the down, distance, depth, and location of their opportunities.

The key metrics used in this article are:

  • Expected Fantasy Points (or xFP): The average (or expected) fantasy value of a player’s opportunities. This metric is synonymous with volume.
  • Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE): The difference between a player’s actual fantasy production and their Expected Fantasy Points. This metric is synonymous with efficiency and is subject to regression week over week.

What do these metrics tell us?

  • My model analyzes fantasy production in terms of volume (xFP) and efficiency (FPOE).
  • Players with high xFP are more likely to produce consistently, while players who rely too heavily on FPOE may experience volatility in their production. In other words, we want to ideally target players that rank highly in xFP.
  • xFP is by far the more stable and predictive metric. However, it is not a ranking system. It is only one part of the equation and should be used in conjunction with other metrics to get a complete picture of a player’s value.
  • While I caution investing in players who rely on FPOE, I would NOT avoid them entirely. Players who depend on efficiency simply have a higher range of outcomes. In other words, these players can simultaneously raise the ceiling and lower the floor of your lineups.

If you are newer to this series, be sure to check out my full series primer where I break down my Expected Fantasy Points model in more detail. The full version of this article is available only in the DFS Pass.

If you have any additional questions, feel free to reach out on X or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.

RUNNING BACKS

  • Javonte Williams has quietly put together a pair of RB2 performances, one of which he finished as the RB9 in half-PPR scoring. More importantly, his usage continues to improve as he set season-highs in total opportunities in back-to-back games. Since Week 7, Williams has been the RB5 in Expected Points with 16.5 xFP and the RB2 in Opportunity Share at 45.8%. In addition, we have seen him slowly become more involved in the passing game, averaging a 16.8% Target Share and a 37% route participation in his last two games – ahead of Samaje Perine and Jaleel McLaughlin in both metrics. Finally healthy and dominating the backfield touches, Williams should be much more productive going forward. And in Week 10, he gets to face a Bills defense that’s allowed the 12th most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to the running back position and the fourth-highest yards per carry, making Williams an intriguing play on Monday Night Football.

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