DFS Thursday Night Football: DraftKings Showdown for Week 5
Before we get into the specifics of this matchup and how to approach it for the DraftKings showdown slate, I want to point people back to a few pieces of evergreen content that I think are extremely valuable if you’re serious about winning showdown all season. I’d recommend reading/listening to this content before proceeding, especially if you’re new to showdown.
1. How to Win Showdown Contests: A detailed article looking at the data and strategy behind winning showdown lineups.
2. DFS Showdown Strategy Podcast: A thorough discussion on how to beat showdown, looking at the game theory and how to leverage the field.
DraftKings Sportsbook Lines
Spread: Rams -2.5
Total: 54.5
Team Totals: Rams (28.5), Seahawks (26.0)
Game Outlook
This Thursday night’s game should be a barn burner between two NFC West division rivals. The 3-1 Rams travel to Seattle to play the 2-2 Seahawks at Century Link Field in front of the 12’s with this game featuring a healthy 54.5-point total. When this game opened, the line was 53.5 and has been bet up a full point, suggesting this should make for a fun fantasy environment on Thursday Night.
Through the first month of the season, the Rams have leaned heavily on the right arm of Matthew Stafford, operating at a 59% pass rate in neutral situations with Los Angeles showing a willingness to dial up the run game when winning by 7+ points. Their pass rate drops to just 52% when winning by 7+ points, and as a result, projecting game script here will be crucial in deciding how to attack Rams players for Thursday night’s slate.
Seattle continues to get it done on offense thanks to efficiency, rather than volume. Seattle ranks dead last in plays per game, yet heads into Thursday’s game ranking 10th in scoring through the first month of the season. If the Seahawks’ efficiency takes any step back in this matchup, we could see Seattle players underperform in this contest due to projected lower play volume.
Given the 2.5-point spread, I’ll be building most of my lineups around what these offenses want to do in neutral situations, but in large field GPPs, feel free to create different game scripts and adjust accordingly. What Seattle wants to do, or at least what they’ve done so far when games are close is run a near even split, throwing at a 55% clip while using a committee backfield to run 45% of the time and controlling the clock with a slower pace of play.
Pace Stats
Plays per game: Rams (26th), Seahawks (32nd)
Neutral Situation Pace: Rams (13th), Seahawks (22nd)
Injury Outlook
Seahawks
- RB Chris Carson (Neck): Game-time decision
- WR D’Wayne Eskridge (Concussion): Out
- TE Gerald Everett (Covid-19 list): Questionable
Gerald Everett has tested negative for COVID-19 2x this week, but one was rapid Mesa test, only one was the more extensive PCR test that gets flown to lab in Burbank for results 12-18hrs. #Seahawks are awaiting results of his second PCR test in as many days to know if he can play
— Gregg Bell (@gbellseattle) October 6, 2021
Rams
- No players listed on final injury report
Captain Selections
Cooper Kupp $18,600
Kupp is the most expensive player on the slate, which is surprising given the QB names in the player pool this week, but how can you argue against the ceiling we’ve seen from Kupp? He leads all NFL players in targets through the first month of the season and has seen 10+ targets in every game. Kupp’s hot start to the year has included 26.8, 39.8 and 30.6 DraftKings points before a down week in Week 4. If he posts anything similar to those numbers on Thursday night, it’ll be difficult for any player to beat him as the optimal captain. Seattle has been blow torched by Deebo Samuel (8/156/2), Julio Jones (6/128/0), Justin Jefferson (9/118/1), and Adam Thielen (6/50/1) to start the year, so this definitely looks like an eruption spot for Stafford’s breakfast buddy. Just know, he’s going to be the most popular player on the slate, so in large field GPPs, it may make sense to be underweight on Kupp in order to create leverage on the field.
Stack Idea: Cpt Cooper Kupp + Matthew Stafford, Bring back with Chris Carson
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