DFS Pace of Play for Week 4 (Fantasy Football)

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It’s Week 4! Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. For every 5 seconds difference in terms of per play, a team runs 15 more plays per game. In DFS world, that’s a massive considering volume is king. In 2019, on average, teams ran a play 0.8 seconds per play slower in positive game scripts than they did in neutral game script.

Each week I’ll highlight five statistics that will affect matchups this week, five games worth stacking, and five dart throws for tournaments.

Make sure to check out the DFS Podcast where Betz and I breakdown the main slate and highlight some of our favorite plays of the week. 

Five Stats to Know

1. I still can’t quite figure out the identity of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers through three weeks. While Tom Brady and company sit at 2-1, they rank 3rd in seconds per play while leading but 24th in neutral game situations. The Chargers have faced the 3rd highest pass rate from their opponents yet only allowed six 20+ yard passing plays, 3rd fewest in the NFL. Despite injuries on both sides (Chris Godwin & Chris Harris Jr.), I don’t love the 25.5 team implied total for the Bucs. If Godwin is out, it will be up to Scotty Miller, rookie Tyler Johnson, and Justin Watson to pick up the slack opposite of red-zone only Mike Evans. On the Bucs side, Ronald Jones II ($5,600) is somewhat intriguing given the fact Leonard Fournette missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday. Austin Ekeler looked incredible last week and he’s still a value on FanDuel at $6,900.



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Comments

MNKicks says:

If I am playing in GPP’s where I am limited to 15 entries but there are only 500 or so total entries, how much variation do I need in my lineups? Should I be building lineups more like cash games?

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