DFS Pace of Play for Week 17
Get ready for the wildest DFS week of the year… which just so happens to be Week 17. With so many games (15!) on the main slate this week, I’ll give you a couple of games in different categories of stacking likelihood as well as a few correlation plays and dart throws I like.
Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. For every 5 seconds difference in terms of per play, a team runs 15 more plays per game. In the DFS world, that’s a massive difference considering volume is king. In 2019, on average, teams ran a play 0.8 seconds per play slower in positive game scripts than they did in a neutral game script.
Make sure to check out the DFS Podcast where Betz and I breakdown the main slate and highlight some of our favorite plays of the week.
THE Games to Stack
Tennessee @ Houston: Get ready for the Yeti! Everyone is going to want to play Derrick Henry one more time this year and why not against the WORST RUN DEFENSE IN THE NFL?! They’ve allowed the most RB fantasy points, the most 10+ yard runs, and the 2nd most yards per play in the NFL. J.J. Watt gave an emotional speech to his team citing their lack of discipline on defense but I don’t think this will prepare them to stop a steamroller. This is among the boldest calls of the DFS season: do you dare fade Henry in this spot with the Titans in a win-and-get-in situation? You need Henry to hit 35+ points to pay off. The Titans rank 3rd in pace of play and 4th in neutral game situations. Ryan Tannehill is also in a great spot and while you can definitely go that route, the key to this game is Deshaun Watson‘s status. If he doesn’t play, the Houston side will dip in roster percentages but he told reporters he’ll be in. Luckily, the Titans’ secondary is quite generous allowing the 5th most passing yards, lowest pressure and sack rate, and opposing WRs are being targeted at the highest rate in the NFL. Brandin Cooks is finally priced up so Keke Coutee and Chad Hansen are the cheap options worth considering. David Johnson has back-to-back awesome weeks and the Titans rank 28th against fantasy RBs. He’s the perfect in-game pivot from Henry that will come in at 1/4 of the rosters.
Recommended GPP Stacks/Correlation Plays: