DFS Pace of Play for Week 16
Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. For every 5 seconds difference in terms of per play, a team runs 15 more plays per game. In the DFS world, that’s a massive difference considering volume is king. In 2019, on average, teams ran a play 0.8 seconds per play slower in positive game scripts than they did in neutral game script.
Each week I’ll highlight five statistics that will affect matchups this week, five games worth stacking, and five dart throws for tournaments.
Make sure to check out the DFS Podcast where Betz and I breakdown the main slate and highlight some of our favorite plays of the week.
Five Stats to Know
1. What type of SEA-LAR game are we going to see? If you look through the game logs since Sean McVay took over in 2017, it’s been quite drastic in terms of how things have played out between these division rivals.
|Game 1 SEA-LAR||16-10||31-33||30-29||16-23|
|Game 2 SEA-LAR||7-42||31-36||12-28||??|
The common thread is Russell Wilson under pressure. He’s been sacked on average four times a game against this team and recently teams have figured him out. In games against elite pass rushes, Wilson has underwhelmed for DFS against Washington (13.04 DK pts) last week, the Giants (17.02), Eagles (14.4), and these Rams (12.92) back in Week 10. Turnovers can be a positive for DFS if they lead to quick scores. The issue with this game is who is in the driver’s seat. If the Rams take control, you’ll likely see Darrell Henderson Jr. smash into the line 20+ times and pay off in lineups. With the highest early down success rate and highest 3rd down success rate in the league, I like the Rams to get back on track after somehow losing to the Jets last week.