DFS Pace of Play for Week 15
Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. For every 5 seconds difference in terms of per play, a team runs 15 more plays per game. In the DFS world, that’s a massive difference considering volume is king. In 2019, on average, teams ran a play 0.8 seconds per play slower in positive game scripts than they did in neutral game script.
Each week I’ll highlight five statistics that will affect matchups this week, five games worth stacking, and five dart throws for tournaments.
Make sure to check out the DFS Podcast where Betz and I breakdown the main slate and highlight some of our favorite plays of the week.
Five Stats to Know
1. Much has been made this past week in the Bills’ willingness to trust Josh Allen and develop him as a passer en route to a 70 percent completion rate. Buffalo has the 2nd highest pass success rate (56%) and runs 3-WR sets 92% of the time, the highest in the league. In other words, why not keep chucking it with a young Brett Favre (not saying he’s there but willing to throw with the gun he has) who has the 3rd most passing yards and 3rd most 20+ yard passing plays in the league. But, I bet you didn’t know the Bills actually have the highest 1st down percentage from rushes (29.6) in the NFL. They pick their spots running essentially throwing to set up the run so they can run play-action passing. This game might fly under-the-radar but with a 50-point total, I’m willing to make a few simple one-off plays perhaps with a Zack Moss against a Denver defense that is allowing the highest percentage of opponent TDs on the ground (51.5%) in the league.