DFS Pace of Play for Week 13 (Fantasy Football)
Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. For every 5 seconds difference in terms of per play, a team runs 15 more plays per game. In DFS world, that’s a massive difference considering volume is king. In 2019, on average, teams ran a play 0.8 seconds per play slower in positive game scripts than they did in neutral game script.
Each week I’ll highlight five statistics that will affect matchups this week, five games worth stacking, and five dart throws for tournaments.
Make sure to check out the DFS Podcast where Betz and I breakdown the main slate and highlight some of our favorite plays of the week.
Five Stats to Know
1. It’s wild to see a New Orleans/Atlanta game with such a “low” total. The line started out at 47.5 and has been bet down to 46. Falcons and Saints games historically have been barn-burners in the Matt Ryan–Drew Brees era but if you take a look, seven of the last eight games have been 48 points or fewer. With Taysom Hill at the helm, the Saints are trying to simplify the game for him as he’s being sacked on 30 percent of his pressured dropbacks but completing 67 of his passes under pressure. He can get outside the pocket but his aDOT is low as he’s averaging a “deep attempt” on just 5.1 percent of his attempts, dead last among starters the last two weeks. His presence nerfs Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas‘ upside. If Julio Jones plays, there could be some more firepower at stake and I’ll be more interested in a stacking perspective.
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