DFS Pace of Play for Conference Championship Week
For each playoff matchup, I’ll discuss the pace of play and implications of game flow which affects how we stack and correlate in DFS. I’ll also mention my percentage of exposure in tournaments and which games potentially could be faded. At the end, I’ll give my favorite dart throws of the week.
Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. For every 5 seconds difference in terms of per play, a team runs 15 more plays per game. In the DFS world, that’s a massive difference considering volume is king. In 2019, on average, teams ran a play 0.8 seconds per play slower in positive game scripts than they did in a neutral game script.
Make sure to check out the DFS Podcast where Betz and I breakdown the main slate and highlight some of our favorite plays of the week.
For this 2-game slate, pace of play needs to be taken with a grain of salt. For example, I mentioned last week in the divisional pace of play article that Green Bay’s statistics are a bit deceiving. You might see 32nd and assume that they are slow and methodical. Instead, I mentioned that stat in context reveals how efficient they are and how often they’ve played with a lead. All four of these teams were elite in protecting their QBs. Tampa Bay (3rd), Kansas City (4th), Buffalo (5th), and Green Bay (6th) all rank inside the top-6 which is an incredible feat. Our advice has been the same all year: pick a game flow and run with it.
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||Green Bay Packers|
|Pace of Play||9th||32nd|
|Neutral Game Script||4th||32nd|