Best Ball: WR Opportunity & Finding ADP Gold in 2023 (Fantasy Football)
In BestBall, so much attention is tied to ADP as the market ebbs and flows throughout the summer. You’re not wrong for questioning it but you also cannot and should not ignore where players are going. ADP provides a “wisdom of the crowd” that is getting sharper and sharper over the years.
However, it is easy to be tied to ADP and not consider projections and projected opportunities for players.
I foolishly mentioned on the DFS & Betting Podcast that I was curious to look at historic target & opportunity expectation numbers for where players are drafted in Best Ball and compare that with our projections in the Ultimate Draft Kit. I can’t believe I uttered that out loud! But I consider myself a man of my word and over the last week went through the last decade of data for the WR position and what we have projected in the award-winning Ultimate Draft Kit. Are there major discrepancies? Do certain players stick out as values and other as clear stay aways?
I looked at our projections in the Ultimate Draft Kit which take the average of Andy, Jason, and Mike’s team-by-team projections factoring in pace, overall pass/run volume, and boils it down to real projectable fantasy statistics.
I’ll break this article up into two categories: discount volume and volume problems. At the end, I will post a full outlook on every top-50 WR on Underdog.
Best Ball WRs: Discount Volume
Here are a few WRs that look like they are undervalued based on the historical expectation of a WR at their current ADP and our UDK projections.
Deebo Samuel, WR18
|Overall||WR ADP||Name||UDK Opps||10 Yr Avg.||Diff|
Most WRs have little to no rush attempts in their projections. Deebo is built different. For context, a Deebo Samuel rush attempt in his career is worth 1.22 fantasy points. For reference, here are some of the top RBs and their fantasy points per rush in 2022:
- Tony Pollard– 0.80 fpt per carry
- Nick Chubb– 0.74 fpt per carry
- No RB in the top-50 surpassed 0.88 fpt per carry!
The Deebo rush attempt is one of the most valuable plays in fantasy! Perhaps Best Ball drafters aren’t factoring this in with his upside? When you add in the fact he led the team in target share in the games he played with Brock Purdy, Deebo might be a cheat code in 2023.