2017 Rookie Landing Spots: QBs
Editor’s Note: Be sure to check out other Rookie Landing Spots: RBs Part 1 & Part 2, Reception Perception: Round 1 WRs, Round 2 & 3 WRs, and TEs.
Mitchell Trubisky to Chicago Bears
Round 1, Pick 2 (2nd Overall)
College Production:
2017 Competition:
1) Mike Glennon
Analysis:
Before the draft, it seemed like Mitchell Trubisky would be the talk of the league for good reasons. Possibly being taken 1st overall by the Browns but at least ending up in a solid landing spot. Instead, Chicago paid a huge price to move up one pick to select Mitch, and both Trubisky and the Bears are feeling the heat. The questions around him are more based on experience. He couldn’t play his way on to field early in college but was very good when he got his shot. He can make the throws and protects the ball well. His new home, however, is less than ideal. Trubisky finds himself in a situation that at best can be described as murky, at worst it can be described as the Chicago Bears.
Seemingly learning nothing from the Osweiler/Texans debacle, the Bears paid Mike Glennon $45 million over 3 years and then decided to one up Houston by immediately drafted his replacement. They have serious questions at WR, both OT positions. and they are very young at just about every other position. No Bears QB has finished as a fantasy QB1 since 2009. Read that again. Since 2012, the year when Andrew Luck, RG3, and Russell Wilson made being a rookie QB look easy, only one rookie has finished as a QB1, that was Dak Prescott last year. I wouldn’t bet on Trubisky adding his name to that list.
Patrick Mahomes to Kansas City Chiefs
Round 1, Pick 10 (10th Overall)
College Production:
2017 Competition:
1) Alex Smith
2) The immense feeling of safety he has being around Alex Smith
Analysis:
Another 1st round QB, another trade, but a totally different narrative. The Chiefs know that can’t depend on Alex Smith forever, though if there is anyone in this universe that one could depend on forever, it would be Alex Smith. Smith knows that if he maintains a balanced diet and doesn’t throw the ball too hard, he could play for at least the next 15 years. Kansas City has made other plans.
In Patrick Mahomes, they draft a guy who led college football in passing yards per game last year, while their own QB was bottom 5 in that category. They get a guy who scored 22 rushing TDs over the last 3 seasons. Smith has 8. Yes, Mahomes is a gunslinger. He’s not afraid to try any throw and he trusts his arm. Andy Reid is the perfect coach for that. He worked with Brett Favre and Donovan McNabb on those same issues. Alex Smith has never fired a gun, too loud. Speaking bluntly, in build and playstyle, Mahomes reminds me of McNabb. I won’t go as far to say he will reach that level of play but he is in the right situation.
I should note that no Andy Reid QB has finished as a QB1 since 2012 when he was with Philadelphia. You know, back when he had athletic QBs who could throw the ball a ton? Like Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes may not have much value in 2017 but he could have the best career of any of these guys.
Deshaun Watson to Houston Texans
Round 1, Pick 12 (12th Overall)
College Production:
2017 Competition:
1) Tom Savage
2) Brandon Weeden
(in other words, he has very little competition)
Analysis:
I haven’t done the research but I bet that after their playoff loss last season if you polled Houston fans about who they wanted to QB the team in 2017, the winner by a landslide would have been “Not Brock Osweiler.” I bet if you told them they would get a Heisman Trophy winner and National Champion as the 3rd QB off the board they would have said: “Not Brock Osweiler…wait, what?” Alas, that is the situation Houston found themselves in and they made the right pick.
If you’re looking for year 1 fantasy value, here it is. Deshaun Watson finds himself in the best situation of the 3 first round QBs. He has a strong arm, he is athletic, and he has been in (and expertly handles) pressure situations. The Texans have weapons around him and he doesn’t have great competition for the job. I don’t love rookie QBs in fantasy but if Watson is there late, and you need a QB, you could do much worse.
DeShone Kizer to Cleveland Browns
Round 2, Pick 20 (52nd Overall)
College Production:
2017 Competition:
1) Cody Kessler
2) Kevin Hogan
Analysis:
If not for the Browns’ lack of offensive firepower, Kizer’s situation could be better than Watson’s. Kizer is big, athletic, and has a monster arm. His poor judgment with the ball got him benched a few times last year and that will need to be Hue Jackson’s primary focus. But Hue Jackson is why I love DeShone’s potential. During his time in Cincinnati as offensive coordinator, Jackson greatly improved Andy Dalton‘s decision making. This is reflected in Dalton’s improved completion percentage and TD-to-INT ratio in 2015, Jackson’s last year with the Bengals. While we haven’t seen that kind of improvement in Cleveland yet, maybe he just needed the right QB. The Browns have a good offensive line and have added firepower in the last 2 drafts with Corey Coleman and David Njoku. If Kizer proves coachable, Hue may finally have his guy in Cleveland.
Davis Webb to New York Giants
Round 3, Pick 23 (87th Overall)
College Production:
2017 Competition:
1) Eli Manning
2) Geno Smith
Analysis:
Great spot for Davis Webb to land. Webb is a big guy (6’5″, 230lbs) and is built for the pros. He needs to learn the game for a couple of years and playing behind Eli will allow that. His biggest knock seems to be decision making, playing behind Eli will not help that. If McAdoo can coach him up, he should be a decent QB in 2-3 years.
C.J. Beathard to San Francisco 49ers
Round 3, Pick 40 (104th Overall)
College Production:
2017 Competition:
1) Brian Hoyer
2) Matt Barkley
Analysis:
I’ll be honest, I had to go look C.J. Beathard up. He was not a player I heard a lot about coming into the draft. Basically what I learned is that he played in a pro-style offense, is undersized, and is a smart kid. He’ll need to be smart to get a grip on Kyle Shanahan complicated offense. It’s not an ideal situation for a rookie QB and he’s not a name you need to know on fantasy draft day.
Joshua Dobbs to Pittsburgh Steelers
Round 4, Pick 29 (135th Overall)
College Production:
2017 Competition:
1) Ben Roethlisberger
2) Landry Jones
Analysis:
It would have been easy to write this pick off seeing as Dobbs will be playing behind an elite NFL QB, but with Roethlisberger’s injury history and contemplated retirement, he could be relevant sooner than later. Dobbs played well enough in his Sophomore year to put a fellow rookie, Nathan Peterman, out of job. He is true dual-threat QB and will beat you with his legs. His size makes you wonder if he can take the beating that running QBs take at the next level. But the long and short of it is this; Roethlisberger has missed 6 games over the last 2 years and the Steelers offense has been putrid without him. I’m concerned that we’ve never truly seen this coaching staff develop a rookie but, ready or not, Dobbs may see the field in 2017.
Nathan Peterman to Buffalo Bills
Round 5, Pick 28 (171st Overall)
College Production:
2017 Competition:
1) Tyrod Taylor
2) Cardale Jones
Analysis:
Nathan Peterman is a guy who would have done better landing elsewhere. While the Bills aren’t enamored with their current QBs, I just don’t see Peterman outplaying either one. He’s a solid QB who needs time to grow and I don’t know if he’ll get the attention he needs in Buffalo.
Brad Kaaya to Detroit Lions
Round 6, Pick 32 (215th Overall)
College Production:
2017 Competition:
1) Matt Stafford
2) Jake Rudock
Analysis:
Kaaya is a 3-year starter from Miami, a very pro-ready system. Detroit is a great spot for him. He will have a couple of seasons to learn under Jim Bob Cooter and behind Matt Stafford. Plus, with Stafford injury history, he may see the field sooner than some guys taken ahead of him.
Chad Kelly to Denver Broncos
Round 7, Pick 35 (253rd Overall)
College Production:
2017 Competition:
1) Paxton Lynch
2) Trevor Siemian
Analysis:
Not too often there is more to say about a 7th round pick than some of the guys taken ahead of him. Kelly played great as a Junior but took a step back in 2016. His year ended early due to a knee injury but his stats weren’t shaping up that great anyway. To top it off he can’t seem to stop making negative headlines off the field. The last thing a backup QB is allowed to be is a distraction (see: Colin Kaepernick.) The thing is, Denver doesn’t seem to love either of their young QBs and if Kelly were to play well in the preseason he could throw his name into the brewing QB competition.
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