The Biggest Start/Sit Decisions for Week 7 (Fantasy Football)
Another week, another round of byes. The Bills, Jaguars, Chargers, and Commanders all get Week 7 off, which means plenty of lineups are missing Josh Allen or Jayden Daniels, Bhayshul Tuten or Stefon Diggs. The silver lining? Nobody has to talk themselves into starting Omarion Hampton or Justin Herbert this week. Honestly, that might be a relief (if you were even still starting them).
Add a 9:30 AM ET breakfast kickoff (Bonjour) and a few shaky injury reports, and Week 7 is serving up some real headaches. By combining the recommendations from the Fantasy Footballers Start/Sit tool with my weekly analysis, we are sorting out which Week 7 decisions you can feel good about.
the speech i gave to my 1-5 fantasy team this AM: pic.twitter.com/L13eoYAyN5
— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) October 22, 2026
Byes are thinning out benches across the league, so here are the matchups that matter:
Aaron Rodgers or Geno Smith?
The Retirement tour continues! This week in France. Aaron Rodgers has low-key been cooking. As Kurt Mullen pointed out in his Week 7 Streamers to Consider, Rodgers has finished as a top-12 QB in each of his last four games. Now he gets a Saints defense that, per Kurt, has allowed the sixth-most passing yards in the league. Pittsburgh is a three-point favorite with a 23.75 implied team total, and the tool projects Rodgers for 20.0 points, good for QB11. The only speed bump is the forecast: breezy and overcast, with 17-mph winds. Set the alarm, brew the coffee, and do not let the wind scare you off.
Geno Smith looks interesting on paper. The Jets are at home, favored by 4.5 points, against a Miami team that has scored the fewest points in the league. The tool also grades the Dolphins as a friendly QB matchup this week. So what is the problem? This game has a 39.5 over/under, and when your defense is a popular streamer, the path to a big passing day gets narrow. None of Andy, Mike, or Jason has him higher than QB16.
Verdict: Start Aaron Rodgers as a low-end QB1. He is hot, the matchup is soft, and the projection gap is not close. Geno is a fine QB2 in SuperFlex leagues, but he is not the guy to chase in one-QB formats this week.
Josh Jacobs or Ollie Gordon II?
Josh Jacobs was removed from the NFL’s Commissioner Exempt list this week, returned to practice, and head coach Matt LaFleur said he is good to go for Sunday. From a pure football standpoint, the setup is about as good as it gets: a 53.5 over/under in a Detroit dome, with Green Bay implied for 25.25 points. The case gets even stronger when you look at the Packers’ backfield without him. MarShawn Lloyd is averaging 2.54 yds per carry on 48 attempts, getting stuffed on 60.4% of his runs, and sitting at minus 1.72 rushing yds over expected per attempt. That is not a committee Jacobs has to fight through. The work is his. The only real question is how much Jacobs can handle in his first game back, and honestly, I do not think it is much of a question. I am treating this like Week 1. He is not coming back from an injury, and while he might not be in perfect football shape, nobody benches their RB1 in Week 1.
Where does Josh Jacobs rank among RBs for the rest of the season? pic.twitter.com/KTcun5Wsr6
— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) October 21, 2026
Ollie Gordon II has been the most efficient piece of the Miami backfield. He is averaging 5.02 yds per carry with three TDs, and his 19.5% explosive run rate nearly doubles the league average of 10.1%. Give him a man/gap concept, and he turns into a different player, averaging 6.32 yds per carry on those runs. The catch? It has been boom or bust. Gordon is playing just 47.8% of the snaps, is getting stuffed on 57.4% of his carries (league average is 46.4%), and his 38.3% success rate is well below the 48.5% average. He has also done very little as a receiver. Miami is a 4.5-point underdog with a 17.5 implied team total, and that kind of game script can wipe out an early-down back.
Verdict: Start Jacobs. You’ve held on to him this long! The wait is finally over.
Germie Bernard or Jaylen Waddle?
The Steelers’ WR room has been hit hard, with Michael Pittman Jr. and Roman Wilson both on IR, and rookie Germie Bernard has stepped right into the void. On the season, he has 24 catches on 31 targets for 227 yds and one TD. His 1.68 yds per route run is better than the league average of 1.55, and a whopping 90.3% of his targets have been catchable.
Meanwhile, Jaylen Waddle has had a frustrating first season in Denver. The volume is there: a 19% target share and a massive 34.8% share of the team’s air yards. The production is not. He has 22 catches for 228 yards and one TD on 36 targets, a 61.1% catch rate, four drops, and 9.18 fantasy PPG. Colt Williams noted in his Week 7 Matchups to Consider that Denver’s use of Waddle has not done him many favors. Now he is dealing with a chest injury, was limited in practice Wednesday and Thursday, and is listed as questionable. The frustrating part is the matchup. Denver visits Arizona in a dome, and the Cardinals have given up the fourth-most fantasy points to QBs, while the Broncos are implied for 24 points.
Verdict: Start Germie Bernard. He is healthy, his role keeps growing, and he is in a plus matchup.
Juwan Johnson or Pat Freiermuth?
We saved the best for last: two TEs, same game on National Tight Ends Day. Bonus points because it is also Pat Freiermuth‘s birthday. You cannot make this up.
Juwan Johnson has the better usage profile. He has 25 catches on 32 targets for 248 yds and three TDs, a 13.6% target share, and a 67.6% route rate. He has also seen seven targets inside the 20 and four end zone targets. His expected fantasy points (12.03 per game) are higher than his actual points (11.13 per game), so, if anything, he has been a little unlucky. He got blanked last week in a low-volume passing game.
It’s amazing how much better the Steelers offense is when it gets Pat Freiermuth the ball. Simple concept. But it’s very successful. pic.twitter.com/TxgY2zzR5J
— Andrew Fillipponi (@ThePoniExpress) October 11, 2026
Pat Freiermuth has been living in the end zone. He has 21 catches on 28 targets for 180 yds and four TDs, accounting for 33.3% of the Steelers’ receiving TDs. Here is the issue: he is scoring 10.57 fantasy PPG on just 8.74 expected, a gap that leans heavily on those TDs. His 1.12 yards per route run also trails Johnson’s 1.43, and he played through a calf injury last week. In his favor, the Saints matchup grades out as one of the best in the tool for TEs, while Johnson faces a tougher Steelers unit. The projections are basically a coin flip: Johnson at 10.7 points (TE14) and Freiermuth at 10.5 (TE15).
Verdict: Start Pat Freiermuth. It is legitimately The Muth’s birthday this Sunday, and I would be surprised if Aaron Rodgers does not get him a TD (or two) as a present. The Saints’ defense is nothing to worry about either, while the Steelers are more stingy about giving up points to the position.
Alright, Week 7 brings four teams on bye, a breakfast kickoff, and an injury report longer than my Saturday to-do list. If you are still stuck on a tough call before kickoff, hit me up on X or catch Mike live on his Sunday Start/Sit show. And do not forget about the Fantasy Footballers Start/Sit tool for any matchup not covered here. Let us survive the byes and grab another W!