NFL DFS DraftKings GPP Picks: Week 7 (Fantasy Football)
These are upside plays for large-field GPPs, not a complete player pool. Strong tournament lineups often pair popular cash plays with lower-rostered leverage. Use Betz’s Cash Plays (here) and DFS Rankings (here) alongside these recommendations to construct solid GPP lineups.
Note: Plays are listed by salary, not preference.
*For pOwn and Point Proj, this is from my personal weekly projections sheet that blends multiple data points along with Ballers projections.
*There are major injury concerns for Sunday, so we may need to update this through the weekend. As of this writing, here are the concerns.
- Puka Nacua: Limited Thursday with a new calf issue. Keeping him in consideration for now.
- Lamar Jackson: Limited with an ankle injury. His return remains unconfirmed.
- Christian Watson/Matthew Golden: Both limited Thursday. Their availability could shift GB’s targets.
- Breece Hall: Limited Thursday with a quad injury. His status affects Braelon Allen’s workload.
- TB: Egbuka missed practice again. Irving returned limited; Mayfield practiced fully.
- SF receivers: Evans and Deebo missed Thursday. Kirk practiced fully and could return.
- Brian Robinson Jr.: Missed Thursday with a hamstring injury. His absence could increase Bijan’s workload.
*In large-field GPPs, a player’s ceiling helps us judge whether he can deliver the kind of score that separates us from thousands of lineups. I want that upside supported by real opportunity, then weigh the chances of reaching it against his salary and ownership. That is why it is listed.
Quarterback
Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images
Joe Burrow | $6,900 | @ BAL
Projection: 20.17 DK points at 2.87% pOwn, with a 30-point ceiling.
CIN ranks second in pass rate over expectation, so I am comfortable betting on Burrow’s arm even if this game moves slowly. Higgins is my starting point when salary matters. Add Chase when the rest of the lineup can still afford strong workloads.
Jared Goff | $6,800 | vs GB
Projection: 21.10 DK points at 6.79% pOwn, with a 32-point ceiling.
Goff sits within a point of Jordan Love at well under half the ownership. I like him with LaPorta, betting on DET finishing drives through the air. Watson is my preferred bring-back, giving us access to both passing games without needing every piece to be unpopular.
Matthew Stafford | $6,400 | @ LV
Projection: 19.23 DK points at 3.92% pOwn, with a 30-point ceiling.
Plenty of people want Puka, but far fewer are clicking the guy throwing him the ball. Gimme Stafford with Puka, betting on that receiving production being part of a bigger passing day. Tucker gives us a cheaper LV return, with Bowers available when the salary works. Good luck figuring out if another Rams WR can return value.
Running Back
Derrick Henry | $7,900 | vs CIN
Projection: 19.25 DK points at 6.97% pOwn, with a 33-point ceiling.
Henry projects almost even with Kyren at roughly a third of the ownership. I like him when betting on BAL finishing its scoring drives on the ground, with Higgins available on the other side. We pay extra for that choice, so I am looking for a multiple-TD game that justifies the salary.
Chuba Hubbard | $6,700 | vs TB
Projection: 17.33 DK points at 13.23% pOwn, with a 31-point ceiling.
Hubbard has handled 48 carries in his last two appearances, giving us plenty of work to buy in this salary range. I like him as a standalone RB when I want to keep room for Puka or Chase. A heavy rushing afternoon with a couple of TDs would not suck for what feels like the most boring RB each slate.
Chase Brown | $6,600 | @ BAL
Projection: 15.48 DK points at 5.26% pOwn, with a 27-point ceiling.
Brown has 24 catches through five games, so I am comfortable pairing him with Burrow. A receiving TD would pay off both spots, and Higgins can join if we want another pass catcher. The rushing production has been uneven, so I would keep this to a smaller portion of my builds. The fantasy community’s confidence is waning because of Samaje Perine’s involvement, and it has some validity. This is a bounce-back play with plenty of risk.
Ashton Jeanty | $6,500 | vs LAR
Projection: 15.31 DK points at 5.01% pOwn, with a 26-point ceiling.
Jeanty has caught at least three passes in every game, which gives him a way to produce if LV is chasing LAR. I like him opposite Puka, betting on catches and a TD to carry the scoring. His recent rushing workload is concerning, so getting into the 14+ range would do wonders if he is efficient.
Bucky Irving | $6,100 | @ CAR
Projection: 16.19 DK points at 14.97% pOwn, with a 30-point ceiling.
Irving has seen at least 15 opportunities in every game, and CAR’s defensive issues give him more chances to do something with them (25.7 FPPG to RBs). I like him with Tet when betting on TB’s backfield and CAR’s passing game. His salary leaves room to spend on our preferred QB stack or a premium WR.
Wide Receiver
Puka Nacua | $8,400 | @ LV
Projection: 23.93 DK points at 22.51% pOwn, with a 40-point ceiling.
He has 37 receptions in four games, and I want that kind of involvement when I’m paying up. Yes, he is in the cash article, but pairing him with Stafford lets us bet on a big Puka day that also captures the passing TDs in our QB spot. That is the reason for inclusion.
Ja’Marr Chase | $8,100 | @ BAL
Projection: 20.08 DK points at 9.23% pOwn, with a 34-point ceiling.
Chase has scored four TDs across his last four games, and that is the production I want attached to Burrow. I like him as the primary receiving option when we can afford the more expensive stack. He also works opposite Henry when our QB comes from another game.
Nico Collins | $7,200 | vs NYG
Projection: 16.65 DK points at 8.88% pOwn, with a 32-point ceiling.
Nico has already delivered a 118-yard, two-TD game this season, which is the outcome I am buying at this salary. I like him as a standalone WR when our main stack comes from another game.
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Tetairoa McMillan | $7,100 | vs TB
Projection: 16.49 DK points at 6.01% pOwn, with a 30-point ceiling.
Tet projects within half a point of Coker while drawing roughly a third of the ownership. I like him opposite Irving, betting on CAR answering TB through the air. The extra $1,000 buys a different receiving bet while keeping the projection almost the same. Those are key GPP moves.
Christian Watson | $7,000 | @ DET
Projection: 17.25 DK points at 13.22% pOwn, with a 32-point ceiling.
Watson can wreck a slate without piling up short catches. His six TDs through six games give us the scoring upside I want in this matchup, and I am happy to pay for it. I like him opposite Goff and LaPorta when I bet both passing games keep the scoreboard digits climbing up.
Tee Higgins | $6,600 | @ BAL
Projection: 15.09 DK points at 9.59% pOwn, with a 30-point ceiling.
Higgins saves us $1,500 from Chase while keeping us attached to the same Burrow ceiling. Both receivers can have good games; we just need Higgins to get a larger share of the TDs. He is where I would start when the savings let me keep another strong play elsewhere. He will have a multi-TD game at some point this season, and I want it before the price follows.
Tre Tucker | $5,200 | vs LAR
Projection: 10.42 DK points at 2.42% pOwn, with a 21-point ceiling.
Tucker gives us a cheaper way to bring a Stafford-Puka stack back. He is tied for the league lead with three catches of at least 40 yards, giving him a path to pay off without needing double-digit targets. I am betting on LV needing to answer through the air.
WR Darts
Jahan Dotson | $3,700 | vs SF
Projection: 7.19 DK points at 2.84% pOwn, with a 16-point ceiling.
Dotson has 195 receiving yards over his last three games, but the catch volume still keeps him in the dart section. A downfield connection and a TD are the path here. He works as standalone salary relief when the savings let me keep the stronger pieces of my main stack. He is running hot, though, so temper expectations.
Konata Mumpfield | $3,200 | @ LV
Projection: 5.81 DK points at 1.08% pOwn, with a 14-point ceiling.
Mumpfield already has a 93-yard, one-TD game this season, and Adams’ absence gives him a clearer path to involvement. I would use him as a cheap Stafford attachment in a few builds, betting on a useful piece of the passing game where the TEs fail. I wish there was a better way to read how the WR room shakes out with Adams on the shelf.
Tight End
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Brock Bowers | $7,700 | vs LAR
Projection: 18.22 DK points at 5.30% pOwn, with a 32-point ceiling.
Bowers has topped 100 receiving yards in two of his four appearances, which is the kind of ceiling I want when paying this much at TE. I like him opposite Stafford and Puka if the remaining salaries work. His low ownership makes that expensive receiving bet more interesting.
Sam LaPorta | $4,800 | vs GB
Projection: 13.45 DK points at 13.51% pOwn, with a 25-point ceiling.
LaPorta gives us a direct bet on DET finishing drives through the air. I like him attached to Goff, with his salary leaving room for Watson on the other side. A couple of short receiving TDs would go a long way toward making this the right DET combination.
Tucker Kraft | $4,700 | @ DET
Projection: 12.77 DK points at 14.36% pOwn, with a 24-point ceiling.
Kraft has caught at least five passes in three straight games, giving us an involved receiver at a modest TE salary. I like him as a Goff bring-back or on his own when I want GB exposure. He is due for positive regression on tuddies.
DST
If DST had kids, I would wish harm upon them and that they do not get into their college of choice.
MIN ($3,500): MIN brings 8.28 projected points at 3.49% ownership against IND, making it my preferred option when the salary is available.
CLE ($2,800): CLE offers 7.43 projected points at 7.86% ownership against TEN, saving $700 from MIN while giving up less than a projected point.
MIA ($2,300): MIA gives us 7.10 projected points at 8.70% ownership against NYJ, leaving another $500 to spend on offense compared with CLE.
Last Week’s Milly Maker Winner
The Week 6 Milly winner scored 210.50 DK points with a lineup that was plenty comfortable playing the popular names. Its 164.0% combined ownership was higher than the 135.9% average across the field, yet the winning combination had no duplicates. Likely because it had Penix without Bijan Robinson and Drake London (wut?). We do not have to make every spot uncomfortable to build something the field does not have.
Between Betz’s cash article and our GPP picks, seven of the nine players appeared in our considerations. Michael Penix Jr. and Chuba Hubbard were the missing pieces, while Kenneth Walker III and KC DST represented our GPP selections. The second-place lineup shared six players with the winner and finished just 1.30 points behind.
| Player | Betz Cash Article | Cash GPP Article |
| Michael Penix Jr. | ||
| D’Andre Swift | Yes | |
| Chuba Hubbard | ||
| Xavier Worthy | Yes | |
| Malik Nabers | Yes | |
| Germie Bernard | Yes | |
| Isaiah Likely | Yes | |
| Kenneth Walker III | Yes | |
| Chiefs | Yes |
What carries into Week 7:
- Keep strong chalk: The winner used plenty of popular players. Ownership should help us evaluate combinations of strong plays and chill out on dart throws.
- Find correlation beyond the QB stack: Walker, Worthy, and KC DST gave this lineup multiple ways to benefit from KC controlling the game.
- Do not turn one winner into a rule: Penix won without an ATL pass catcher alongside him. That is an outcome worth examining but only if the rest of the lineup makes sense. I still will not have more than 1-3% of my 150s unstacked.
- Keep the FLEX open: This lineup used three RBs. Let the salaries and opportunities on this slate determine the construction rather than copying last week’s screenshot.
Milly Maker ROI/GPP Picks Review
KC DST finished at +556.78% ROI, but the first-place payout deserves some context. Removing the winning entry drops that figure to +22.37%, which still qualifies as a hit. Walker also remains profitable without the winner, moving from +164.79% to +28.13%. Unlike last week’s Tre Harris example, neither hit disappears when we remove the million-dollar lineup.
We continue to grade our featured recommendations using the same lineup-based measurement: a player counts as a hit when the lineups containing him collectively returned a positive ROI. Week 6:
| Group | Total players/picks | Positive-ROI hits | Hit rate |
| Overall rostered player pool in the export | 339 | 17 | 5.01% |
| Our GPP recommendations | 22 | 4 | 18.18% |
Year Record Update
| Position | Picks | Hits | Misses | Hit rate |
| QB | 19 | 5 | 14 | 26.32% |
| RB | 33 | 7 | 26 | 21.21% |
| WR | 51 | 12 | 39 | 23.53% |
| TE | 23 | 3 | 20 | 13.04% |
| DST | 20 | 3 | 17 | 15.00% |
| Total | 146 | 30 | 116 | 20.55% |
Positional Audit
QB: 0-for-3. Maye (-50.74%), Williams (-52.70%), and Mahomes (-81.85%) all missed. Both Maye and Williams appeared in top-10 lineups, but their overall rostered groups still lost money. That distinction is why we review more than the best screenshot.
RB: 2-for-5. Walker (+164.79%) and Cook (+6.83%) were the hits, while Taylor (-40.80%), Jeanty (-54.99%), and Corum (-49.11%) missed. Walker was our strongest RB recommendation under this measurement, and his positive return held up even without the winning entry.
WR: 1-for-8. Tucker (+29.89%) was our only hit. Dotson (-31.31%), Burden (-36.85%), Keenan Allen (-51.00%), Royals (-56.68%), Garrett Wilson (-80.54%), Adams (-81.06%), and Michael Wilson (-85.29%) missed. Tucker gave us a useful salary-saving option, but our more expensive WR pivots did not deliver profitable lineup groups.
TE: 0-for-3*. McBride (-86.88%) and Fannin (-88.56%) both missed. *Warren (-89.08%) was inactive with a groin injury, so his result reflects exported lineups that still rostered him rather than an on-field performance. He remains in this count because he was included in the published recommendation list.
DST: 1-for-3. KC (+556.78%) was the hit, while NYJ (-58.85%) and NYG (-75.02%) missed. KC also remained profitable after removing the first-place entry, so this was more than a defense getting dragged into the hit column by one winning lineup.