Targets Per Route Run Report: Week 5 (Fantasy Football)

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@ajpassman

Welcome back to the TPRR report. Let’s recap how things went for us in Week 3:

  • Courtland Sutton made good this week and added a touchdown to go along with his high target rate.
  • I hope you avoided Jahan Dotson, as Dallas Goedert led the Eagles in receiving for the second week in a row.
  • Drake London was peppered with 12 targets, but neither he nor Darnell Mooney made much of a fantasy impact in a week where the Falcons’ DST scored two touchdowns. I’ll say it was a miss, but I still like the underlying metrics.
  • A week after I called Rashee Rice a league winner, he’s out for the season. That’s on me.
  • Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle saw more targets in Week 3, but it won’t amount to much with Miami’s offense in shambles.

As a refresher, Targets Per Route Run, or TPRR, is a metric that quantifies a player’s efficiency in earning targets. For wide receivers, a target is the most important underlying metric to predict consistent fantasy output, so a player’s ability to earn those targets at a high rate is key. Historically, a 20% TPRR is a good minimum threshold we want to see, and the best of the best consistently see TPRRs north of 30%.

Let’s take a look at this week’s leaders. As always, TPRR is part of the story. The number of routes run for each player is an important indicator of game script and a team’s propensity to throw.

Week 4 TPRR stat table

Week 4 Reactions

Diontae Johnson is back

Since Andy Dalton took over for Bryce Young, Diontae Johnson (35% TPRR) has seen 14 and 13 targets in Weeks 2 and 3, respectively. He was a target magnet before the Kenny Pickett era in Pittsburgh, and the Carolina offense under Dalton is suddenly a lot more fantasy-friendly. Xavier Legette (24% TPRR) is also worth a shoutout as long as Adam Thielen is sidelined.

Jakobi Meyers Worth a Look During Bye Weeks

With the Davante Adams trade drama starting back up, Jakobi Meyers (39% TPRR) steps in as the top receiver in Las Vegas. That’s not saying much, but Meyers was targeted 10 times against Cleveland and could provide PPR value in the weeks to come.

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Team Focus: Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars have struggled in 2024, and there will be weeks where you don’t get much from their offense. Through four games,  Trevor Lawrence is averaging 182 passing yards per game, so Christian Kirk, who topped the Jaguars in TPRR this week, and the exceptional Brian Thomas Jr. (33% TPRR) will need to score. I’m concerned the pie isn’t big enough to count on week to week.

Team Focus: Green Bay Packers

It’s good to have Jordan Love back. The Packers were playing catch-up against the dominant (I still can’t believe it) Minnesota Vikings, so we may not see that much passing every week. However, both Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks had phenomenal stat lines, but Wicks (29% TPRR) saw 13 targets to Reed’s (18%) eight. Wicks is only rostered in 20% of Sleeper leagues. With Christian Watson possibly out for multiple weeks, Wicks could be a much-needed starter as the bye weeks begin.

Targets Per Route Run – Through Week 4 (Min 50 routes)
Rank Player Team Routes Targets TPRR + /-
1 Cooper Kupp LA 70 27 38.6% 0
2 Malik Nabers NYG 152 51 33.6% 1
3 Rashee Rice KC 91 29 31.9% -1
4 Wan’Dale Robinson NYG 123 37 30.1% 6
5 Diontae Johnson CAR 127 38 29.9% 2
6 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET 130 38 29.2% -2
7 Ladd McConkey LAC 84 24 28.6% -2
8 Michael Pittman Jr. IND 101 28 27.7% 5
9 Nico Collins HST 157 42 26.8% 8
10 Justin Jefferson MIN 113 30 26.5% -1
11 Dontayvion Wicks GB 83 22 26.5% 8
12 Deebo Samuel SF 92 24 26.1% -6
13 Jauan Jennings SF 104 27 26.0% 2
14 Tyreek Hill MIA 116 30 25.9% 2
15 Rashid Shaheed NO 97 25 25.8% 6
16 DeVonta Smith PHI 110 28 25.5% -2
17 Drake London ATL 124 31 25.0% 15
17 George Pickens PIT 112 28 25.0% 6
19 Courtland Sutton DEN 138 34 24.6% 9
20 Chris Olave NO 99 24 24.2% 10
21 Adonai Mitchell IND 54 13 24.1% 5
21 Jordan Whittington LA 54 13 24.1% #N/A
23 Chris Godwin TB 133 32 24.1% -15
24 Christian Kirk JAX 124 29 23.4% 28
25 Terry McLaurin WAS 124 28 22.6% 21
25 DeAndre Hopkins TEN 62 14 22.6% 13
27 Garrett Wilson NYJ 151 34 22.5% -15
28 Tee Higgins CIN 67 15 22.4% 44
29 Brian Thomas Jr. JAX 117 26 22.2% 18
30 CeeDee Lamb DAL 140 31 22.1% 10
31 D.K. Metcalf SEA 159 35 22.0% -2
32 Marvin Harrison Jr. ARZ 123 27 22.0% -5
33 Khalil Shakir BUF 89 19 21.3% -9
33 Quentin Johnston LAC 89 19 21.3% 0
35 Stefon Diggs HST 150 32 21.3% -1
36 Greg Dortch ARZ 94 20 21.3% -18
37 Tutu Atwell LA 67 14 20.9% -18
38 Mike Evans TB 130 27 20.8% 21
39 Jayden Reed GB 106 22 20.8% -15
40 Davante Adams LV 126 26 20.6% -5
41 DJ Moore CHI 157 32 20.4% -5
42 Zay Flowers BLT 118 24 20.3% -11
43 Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA 163 33 20.2% -1
44 Jakobi Meyers LV 141 28 19.9% 25
45 Tyler Johnson LA 76 15 19.7% -2
46 Amari Cooper CLV 173 34 19.7% -7
47 Xavier Legette CAR 95 18 18.9% 24
48 Darnell Mooney ATL 123 23 18.7% -3
49 Jameson Williams DET 129 24 18.6% -12
50 Brandon Aiyuk SF 130 24 18.5% -1
51 Jerry Jeudy CLV 162 29 17.9% 9
52 Tyler Lockett SEA 140 25 17.9% -5
52 Ray-Ray McCloud III ATL 112 20 17.9% 12
52 Noah Brown WAS 56 10 17.9% -12
55 Michael Wilson ARZ 114 20 17.5% 22
56 Allen Lazard NYJ 137 24 17.5% -3
57 Jaylen Waddle MIA 115 20 17.4% 18
58 Tank Dell HST 105 18 17.1% -3
59 Gabe Davis JAX 126 21 16.7% -3
60 Jonathan Mingo CAR 105 17 16.2% -9
61 Ja’Marr Chase CIN 143 23 16.1% 2
62 DeAndre Carter CHI 75 12 16.0% 3
63 Tre Tucker LV 126 20 15.9% 21
64 Josh Reynolds DEN 109 17 15.6% 6
65 Joshua Palmer LAC 65 10 15.4% 15
66 Romeo Doubs GB 124 19 15.3% 8
67 Tyler Boyd TEN 112 17 15.2% 0
68 Calvin Ridley TEN 119 18 15.1% -10
69 Alec Pierce IND 100 15 15.0% -15
70 Adam Thielen CAR 74 11 14.9% 6
71 Nelson Agholor BLT 54 8 14.8% 23
72 Ja’Lynn Polk NE 91 13 14.3% 24
73 Brandin Cooks DAL 135 19 14.1% 12
74 Rome Odunze CHI 151 21 13.9% 8
75 K.J. Osborn NE 87 12 13.8% #N/A
76 Demario Douglas NE 102 14 13.7% 3
77 Calvin Austin III PIT 73 10 13.7% -27
78 Lil’Jordan Humphrey DEN 95 13 13.7% -17
79 Christian Watson GB 59 8 13.6% 10
80 Andrei Iosivas CIN 128 17 13.3% -12
81 Keon Coleman BUF 83 11 13.3% 10
82 Xavier Worthy KC 106 14 13.2% -1
83 Demarcus Robinson LA 130 17 13.1% 3
84 Jalen Tolbert DAL 133 17 12.8% 6
85 Jalen Nailor MIN 87 11 12.6% 8
86 Rashod Bateman BLT 111 14 12.6% 1
87 Elijah Moore CLV 153 18 11.8% -4
88 Mike Williams NYJ 86 10 11.6% 13
89 Darius Slayton NYG 135 15 11.1% 9
89 Dyami Brown WAS 54 6 11.1% 5
91 Mack Hollins BUF 93 10 10.8% 20
92 Luke McCaffrey WAS 75 8 10.7% 0
93 Justin Watson KC 76 8 10.5% 7
94 Van Jefferson PIT 83 8 9.6% 3
95 Treylon Burks TEN 73 7 9.6% 7
96 Parris Campbell PHI 63 6 9.5% 16
97 Robert Woods HST 53 5 9.4% #N/A
98 Kalif Raymond DET 54 5 9.3% 7
99 Tyquan Thornton NE 58 5 8.6% 7
100 Brandon Powell MIN 70 6 8.6% 7
101 Jalen McMillan TB 86 6 7.0% 7
102 JuJu Smith-Schuster KC 58 4 6.9% -3
103 Jahan Dotson PHI 129 8 6.2% 11
104 Braxton Berrios MIA 72 4 5.6% 5

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