Players Who POP: Regression and Bounce-Back Candidates for Week 7 (Fantasy Football)

Welcome back to Players Who POP for Week 7 of the 2024 season, where we try to identify bounce-back players who can give our fantasy teams a much-needed boost or players who may be due for a bit of a fall from grace from a production standpoint. We got some exciting trades this week, and that means we need to be careful about our interpretation of some of these metrics. As the old adage goes, “All models are wrong, some are useful.” Let’s make sure we use POP scores the right way. You’ll even see me go against the recommendation of the numbers with a few of my choices for this week. Let’s dig into it.

Methodology

Each week, we use machine learning to predict rest-of-season average fantasy scoring. You can read the complete strategy behind POP, and why it’s different than other expected points metrics here but here’s the tl;dr: The two best-performing metrics for predicting player fantasy points per game were player share of team opportunity value and teammate fantasy points per game. This model understands that team strength – measured in teammate fantasy production – does in fact play a factor in an individual’s fantasy success, albeit at roughly one-third the importance of a player’s opportunity according to variable importance tests. What is opportunity value, you ask? Without getting too far into the weeds (the linked article goes deep if you’re curious), we’re using a machine learning strategy called “stacking” – using several sub-models (like expected receptions, expected rushes, etc.) as predictors in a new model. Each sub-model is also a machine learning model, but they are rolled up (or “stacked”) into one metric in order to improve predictions within this final model.

Note: The original article refers to this roll-up metric as “expected fantasy points,” but that’s a bit of a misnomer. Instead opportunity value is a more appropriate renaming for this volume metric created in the feature engineering phase of the model-building process.  The metric is distinctly different than pre-existing expected fantasy points metrics like the one expertly analyzed in our Expectation Report series.

Running Backs

Bounce-Back Candidate: Josh Jacobs

Jacobs has been serviceable for fantasy this season but hasn’t exactly blown the doors off either, with just two top-12 finishes at the position thus far. The volume has been excellent, however. When Jordan Love has started, Jacobs has logged 19, 20, and a season-high 21 opportunities last week against Arizona. He also had his second game of the season with three or more targets in Week 6, adding to both his floor and ceiling. The upcoming schedule looks promising too, as he gets Houston in Week 7 (just above average against running backs in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed) and then Jacksonville in Week 8, who rank 29th in that same metric, before a likely shootout against Detroit in Week 9. Despite just one touchdown so far, Jacobs has plenty of TD upside in the weeks to come.

Regression Candidate: David Montgomery

Montgomery has been an absolute beast this year, scoring more than 14 fantasy points in every single game, and hasn’t had a game with fewer than 13 opportunities all season. Yet he’s scoring like a guy seeing 20 opportunities per game. He’s found the end zone in every game this season, including two touchdowns last week in the Lions’ 47-9 shellacking of the Cowboys. So this is really a pure touchdown regression play. Yes, this bruiser role in Detroit’s backfield has been fantasy gold for years now, but Montgomery is still scoring above what his opportunity value suggests. With tough matchups on the horizon — at Minnesota and then against Tennessee — I wouldn’t be shocked if we see his production dip at least a little bit.

Bounce-Back Candidate & Trade Target: D’Andre Swift

This is where we can’t just blindly trust the numbers. Yes, it looks like Swift has overperformed compared to expectations of late. But if your team is a playoff contender, you should be making a move for D’Andre Swift during his Week 7 bye. Since Week 4, he’s looked like a completely different player, putting up three straight top-10 fantasy finishes at the position. During that stretch, he’s seen 23, 23, and 21 opportunities, averaging over five yards per carry in two of those contests, while also averaging more than four targets per game as well. Interestingly, the team is keeping him fresh most games, they’re not leaning on him in pass protection, which means he’s only playing on about 64% of the snaps, yet he still has a top-10 opportunity share among all running backs. With matchups against Washington and Arizona in Weeks 8 and 9, two bottom-five defenses in all phases, Chicago has a real shot to run up the score just like they did against Jacksonville in Week 6.

Wide Receivers

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Bounce-Back Candidate: Amari Cooper

Just a quick note to say he’s going to absolutely eat with Josh Allen. The new situation for Cooper is arguably more enticing for fantasy purposes than Davante Adams (he’ll be fine) since Garrett Wilson will still absolutely get his in the Jets’ offense. Cooper, however, will move into a bonafide alpha WR1 role with as big of a quarterback upgrade as a receiver could possibly get. It may take a few weeks of ramp-up, but this is going to be fireworks in Buffalo.

Regression Candidate: Chris Godwin

Godwin has been nothing short of fantastic this season, and it’s fitting he’s right next to Ja’Marr Chase in the charts above, giving you a crystal clear picture of how much he’s exceeded expectations. He had another long touchdown against the Saints last week, en route to a WR1 overall finish and third top-12 fantasy finish this season, earning a season-high 13 targets in the process. With Baker Mayfield playing as efficiently as ever, this Tampa Bay offense certainly isn’t one you want to bet against the rest of this season, but that said, I still think more of the offensive production shifts back toward Mike Evans and the other weapons in the coming weeks. Both Evans and Cade Otton look like bounce-back candidates according to POP. Currently, Godwin is sitting at 8.8 targets per game and is likely a low-end WR1 the rest of the way, but I’m not convinced that volume doesn’t dip at some point.

Bounce-Back Candidate: Ladd McConkey

They clearly want Ladd McConkey to be a thing in L.A., and honestly, he just might be by season’s end. He took a big hit at the one-yard line last week while trying to score and ended up missing some snaps, then missed more time for an unrelated injury later in the game, so his status is worth monitoring. But McConkey’s been consistently involved, with six or more targets in four of five games, including a season-high eight targets against Denver last week despite the missed drives. What’s more, he’s getting solid red zone usage for a primarily slot receiver, with at least one red zone look in every game but one this year. This week, he faces Arizona, which ranks in the bottom five in points allowed per play. And going forward, despite some tough games on the horizon, I think McConkey has a real chance to sneak into the top 24  of fantasy wide receivers in the rest of the season.

Regression Candidate: Josh Downs

The situation shifts significantly for Downs in Week 7 as the Colts move back to Anthony Richardson under center. During Joe Flacco‘s (nearly) three-game stint, Downs racked up nine, 12, and nine targets, finishing as a top-16 fantasy wide receiver twice and never finishing lower than WR28. However, in his lone game with Richardson this season, he saw just five targets and managed a mere 22 yards. And next up is a tough matchup against Miami, who rank top five in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. The silver lining here is that Downs is still getting open, boasting the second-best route win rate against man coverage in the NFL, which means it’s at least in Richardson’s best interest to try and get Downs the ball. The concern is whether Richardson will allow Downs to be a reliable fantasy option going forward. I’m not currently convinced.

Tight Ends

Bounce-Back Candidate: Brock Bowers

Another quick blurb related to the two big wide receiver trades that occurred this week as Bowers emerges as arguably the biggest winner from the Davante Adams debacle. Bowers, who has already finished as a top-10 tight end in four of six games, including three games in the top five, could easily contend with George Kittle for the TE1 overall the rest of the season. The usage, which was already juicy with games of eight, nine, 10, and 12 targets already under his belt, could hit stratospheric levels. He could *average* over 10 targets per game the rest of the season. Good luck finding that anywhere else at the position.

Regression Candidate: Zach Ertz

Ertz is going to be a thing all season long. If his quarterback is already this good, and the team is scoring on as many drives as it is, then a tight end earning six or more targets per game is going to become an every-week fantasy starter. He’s averaging 6.5 looks per game since Week 5, and now gets the Carolina Panthers in Week 7, who allow the second-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing offenses in the NFL. The 33-year-old veteran may not have a 30-point outburst in his range of outcomes, but weekly double-digit fantasy scoring (or close to it) is a real possibility.

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POP Scores (Previous Opportunity-Based Projection) – Week 7