ADP Rewind: RB Takeaways 2026 (Fantasy Football)
The best indicator for future success is past success. That is why, whenever I start my fantasy football research for the upcoming season, I look back at the previous season to see who succeeded or failed relative to expectations. Learning valuable lessons from the previous season and applying them to the next is very important for growing as a fantasy football manager.
With that being said, let’s rewind to last season and see what happened at the RB position.
Top-12 Drafted RBs in 2025
| RB | 2025 ADP | 2024 Finish | 2025 Games Played |
| Bijan Robinson | RB1 | RB3 | 17 |
| Saquon Barkley | RB2 | RB13 | 16 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB3 | RB4 | 17 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB4 | RB1 | 17 |
| Derrick Henry | RB5 | RB7 | 17 |
| Ashton Jeanty | RB6 | RB12 | 17 |
| Josh Jacobs | RB7 | RB15 | 15 |
| De’Von Achane | RB8 | RB6 | 16 |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB9 | RB2 | 17 |
| Bucky Irving | RB10 | RB33 | 10 |
| Chase Brown | RB11 | RB8 | 17 |
| Kyren Williams | RB12 | RB9 | 17 |
2025 RB Health
Last season, nine out of 12 top RBs drafted finished as an RB1, resulting in a mostly chalky season at the top for RBs. Overall health at RB was one of the biggest contributors to this outlier season. From the top-12 drafted RBs, their average games played were at 16.08. Bucky Irving was the only top-12 drafted RB to miss more than two games. While we do not like to project injuries onto individual players, part of the game is managing injury risk.
Biggest Differences in ADP vs Fantasy Finish
| RB | 2025 ADP | 2025 Finish | Differential |
| Javonte Williams | 41 | 11 | 30 |
| Travis Etienne Jr. | 31 | 10 | 21 |
| James Cook | 13 | 5 | 8 |
| Josh Jacobs | 7 | 15 | -8 |
| Saquon Barkley | 2 | 13 | -11 |
| Bucky Irving | 10 | 33 | -23 |
In past years, so many top RBs have gotten hurt that the Zero (or hero) RB draft strategies have become popular. Many fantasy managers have been burned by drafting guys like Christian McCaffrey at the 1.01, whose only question for his career has been his health. He has finished as an RB1 in every healthy year of his career up to this point. In five of his last eight seasons, CMC has finished as a top 3 RB. However, he has been detrimental to the draft at the 1.01 in those other three seasons.
Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
Top-12 RB Finishes in 2025
Weeks 1-18, half-PPR, via Consistency Charts
| RB | 2025 Finish | 2026 Ranking | 2026 ADP |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB1 | RB3 | RB3 |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB2 | RB4 | RB4 |
| Bijan Robinson | RB3 | RB2 | RB1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB4 | RB1 | RB2 |
| James Cook III | RB5 | RB5 | RB5 |
| De’Von Achane | RB6 | RB7 | RB8 |
| Derrick Henry | RB7 | RB6 | RB12 |
| Chase Brown | RB8 | RB10 | RB10 |
| Kyren Williams | RB9 | RB14 | RB15 |
| Travis Etienne Jr. | RB10 | RB23 | RB19 |
| Javonte Williams | RB11 | RB19 | RB17 |
| Ashton Jeanty | RB12 | RB8 | RB6 |
Team Success
Another takeaway from last season is that while team success is ideal for increasing red-zone opportunities and valuable carries inside the five-yard line, it is not necessary to finish as a top-tier RB. Of the top-12 RBs from last season, only four of them made the playoffs. Their average end-of-season win total was 8.75. However, some of the highly drafted RBs have built-in risks, just like these.
While Ashton Jeanty finished his rookie campaign as an RB1, the story of his season felt significantly worse than that in real time. Out of the other 11 RBs to finish in the top-12, none of them finished with a lower consistency ranking, with 58.8% of games as a top-24 RB on the week. Additionally, none of the other top-12 RBs finished with more games with fewer than seven fantasy points, with Jeanty having five, and the next highest RBs tied at two. The Las Vegas Raiders (hopefully) improved their QB room this year, with the additions of Kirk Cousins and Fernando Mendoza, which should signal the Raiders’ intentions to improve the offense and to condense work for Jeanty and Bowers.
EVERY top-10 drafted RB finished as an RB1 as a rookie. Every single one 👀 pic.twitter.com/gbdOyXuR12
— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) July 6, 2026
Jeremiyah Love is entering a situation very similar to the one Ashton Jeanty faced last year. With the Arizona Cardinals having the toughest strength of schedule and their win total currently at 3.5, Love may have a tough time getting into the end zone. While Jacoby Brissett is back practicing with the Cardinals on a new deal, he still does not understand the offense, and there is a big mess in Arizona overall.
Jacoby Brissett on if he knows the new Cardinals offense yet, via @BoBrack:
"Oh hell no."pic.twitter.com/t5rZEqviDR
— Underdog NFL (@UnderdogNFL) July 26, 2026
While the Arizona Cardinals‘ overall offensive success may be an issue, there are other red flags that make him a risky selection in the second round. Although Arizona invested a lot into Love by selecting him with the third pick in this year’s NFL draft, he is not the only capable RB in Arizona’s depth chart.
According to Spotrac, the Cardinals are the only team paying three RBs at least $3 million each, and are behind only the New Orleans Saints in total spending on backup RBs. Both Tyler Allgeier, who got paid $6,125,000 this offseason to support the Cardinals’ backfield, and James Conner, who will return from his broken ankle, should see enough volume to take away from Love’s ceiling.
All of this, combined with a new head coach/playcaller in Mike LaFleur, makes Love one of the riskiest picks and a potential bust candidate in early rounds of this year’s draft.
#Cardinals OC Nathaniel Hackett
on whether he sees the RB room as having a starter: “I’m really excited about it. Excited for James [Conner] to get out there and show what he’s got. I mean, all the guys.”
on Jeremiyah Love’s progression: “I mean, he’s definitely a rookie” pic.twitter.com/YcVTBfkrMV
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) July 25, 2026
De’Von Achane proved to be one of the most consistent players across fantasy football last season. He never finished with lower than RB18 in a given week, and never had less than double-digit fantasy points. The biggest fears for Achane this upcoming season are the Miami Dolphins‘ team success and Malik Willis‘ passing volume.
Typically, mobile QBs like Willis do not target RBs as much, which is a red flag for Achane. In his three starts in Green Bay, Willis gave eight total targets to RBs. Last season, Achane averaged five targets per game and ended the season with the fifth-most targets for an RB. While Achane still projects to be an RB1, this change could lead to a much more inconsistent season.
The RB1 Debate
The Bijan Robinson vs Jahmyr Gibbs debate has been discussed multiple times on recent shows, but the consensus is that both RBs are clearly above the rest of the field. While the Atlanta Falcons do have more uncertainty around their offense, such as the Tua Tagovailoa vs Michael Penix QB battle going on in camp, Bijan’s projected workload seems to be set in stone. Robinson has never missed a game in his NFL career and has finished every season with more total opportunities than the previous year, going from 300 to 376 to 390.
The big debate… who should be RB1? Bijan or Gibbs? pic.twitter.com/AZ3bWsxKuV
— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) July 24, 2026
While Jahmyr Gibbs may not represent a traditional workhorse RB to the same level as Bijan, he still makes the most out of his opportunities. Gibbs, like Bijan, has seen his total volume increase each year of his NFL career and is projected to take on an even bigger load now that Knuckles, aka David Montgomery, is gone. Last season, Montgomery had 16 5-zone attempts. If Gibbs can even take half of those attempts, there is a realistic possibility that he ends the season with 20+ total TDs, making him a favorite to finish as the RB1 overall.
QB Health
This season, the upside cases for Jonathan Taylor and Kenneth Walker III largely depend on the health and production of their QBs, who are coming off significant lower-body injuries.
The truth about Jonathan Taylor’s 2025 campaign was on pace to be one of the best in recent history, with four finishes as the RB1 overall through Week 10, more than any other RB had throughout the full season (CMC, Bijan, and Gibbs all had two each). Taylor had six games of 30+ fantasy points, leading all players across positions. However, after two relatively pedestrian games following the bye week, the Indianapolis Colts’ rest-of-season outlook changed with Daniel Jones’ torn Achilles. After having five performances with over 100 rushing yards before his Week 11 Bye week, he finished the season with that total. Defenses were able to focus 100% on Taylor, with Riley Leonard and Phillip Rivers at QB to end the season.
Heading into this season, if Daniel Jones is 100%, the Colts’ offense should be competent again, helping Taylor see softer boxes. Tyler Warren’s rookie season and Alec Pierce’s contract are reasons to believe that the Colts’ offense can continue to get better around Taylor, making his job much easier.
Daniel Jones is BACK from his Achilles injury and will be a "full-go" for the start of training camp 👀
(via: @PatMcAfeeShow) pic.twitter.com/TZzPI8lssd
— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) July 27, 2026
Breakout Candidates
Kenneth Walker should bring a new look of explosiveness into the Kansas City Chiefs’ offense. Kansas City’s offense has not been nearly as good as it once was for years at this point. It may be because of the departure of Tyreek Hill, the miss of a first-round selection on Clyde Edwards-Helaire, or the NFL potentially figuring out how to limit big plays across the board with increased two-high looks. However, the return of a familiar face in Kansas City might be able to bring explosive plays back.
The Chiefs have struggled to consistently generate explosive plays in the last three seasons – particularly in the run game.
For the past couple of seasons, the Chiefs explosive play rate has been closer to the Browns than the Bills or Ravens. pic.twitter.com/eBlwy89U1y
— Start Sit 'Em (@StartSitEmFF) May 22, 2026
Eric Bieniemy was the offensive coordinator for the Kansas City Chiefs from 2018-2022, during which they finished no lower than sixth in total points or yards over a five-year span. Although Reid has been in charge of the playcalling, Bieniemy’s impact was shown in the before/after of the Chiefs’ offense. Since he left for the Washington Commanders in 2023, the Chiefs have not finished higher than 15th in total points and have only been in the top 10 in total yards once. If everything goes right for Walker, from Mahomes’ health to Bieniemy bringing back big plays to Kansas City and overall team success for the Chiefs, Ken Bone can easily finish as an RB1, something he has yet to do so far in his NFL career.
The other AFC West breakout candidate at RB is Omarion Hampton. Both Hampton and Walker are listed as breakouts in the UDK. For Hampton, part of the excitement comes with the change the Los Angeles Chargers made at OC this offseason, replacing Greg Roman with Mike McDaniel. McDaniel’s success in the run game has been highlighted since 2021, when he was able to maximize a backfield of Elijah Mitchell and sometimes Deebo Samuel in San Francisco. As the head coach of the Miami Dolphins, he led an offense that produced three top-6 fantasy finishes in four years. We know the opportunity and system are aligned for Hampton to break out this year, so barring a repeat of injuries for the Chargers’ offensive line as a whole, Hampton is set up to be a league-winning selection.
Can Saquon Bounce Back?
Last season, Saquon Barkley was a regression candidate because of the volume of opportunities he had during the Philadelphia Eagles’ Super Bowl run. He had 345 rushing attempts in the regular season and added another 91 in the playoffs. Since 2010, there have only been five seasons where an RB reached 345 rushing attempts, and in the following season, those RBs’ production dipped.
Dropoff in Production
Fewer Games Played
Fewer Rush Attempts
Fewer Rush Yards
Fewer Rush TDs
4
145
853
6
However, there is hope for Saquon Barkley to bounce back this season. Of the five seasons following regression, all RBs bounced back and at least made the Pro Bowl (which is becoming a less meaningful accolade by the year). While part of the total increase in stats was due to injury, per-game and per-touch production also increased in four of five seasons. All of this, plus the departure of A.J. Brown, puts Saquon as a bounce-back candidate this season.
Bounce Back in Production
More Rush Attempts
More Rush Yards
More Rush TDs
116.6
570.4
2.2
Something to note is that while Christian McCaffrey did not reach the total rushing attempts needed to hit this criterion last season, he did have 311 carries, along with 102 receptions, putting his total workload at a similar number.
Repeat Seasons
It should be more of the same for James Cook and Chase Brown, who saw little change in their offenses this offseason. While the Buffalo Bills fired Sean McDermott as head coach and replaced him with Joe Brady, not much should change on offense, as Brady had been the OC for two years before this promotion. For Chase Brown, the only concern is the lack of draft capital or financial commitment attached to his name, but when looking at the Cincinnati Bengals’ offseason moves, there is no reason to believe they plan to move on from Brown.
The Bills' offense under Joe Brady:
🥇 1st in EPA/play
🥇 1st in scoring drive rate
🥇 1st in points scoredYour new head coach, Buffalo fans pic.twitter.com/icZj8BblPL
— PFF (@PFF) January 27, 2026
Last season, we saw an outlier year in terms of health at the top of the RB position in fantasy football, so this year it will likely be more important to hit on mid-late round values and breakouts at RB. Who will be this year’s Javonte Williams or Travis Etienne Jr.?
While not every top-end RB from last season played for a great offense, 12/14 playoff teams had a top-25 RB in points per game.
The lone NFC offense without a top-25 RB is the reigning Super Bowl Champion Seattle Seahawks. Jadarian Price was selected by the Seattle Seahawks in the first round of this year’s NFL draft and has a FELIX score of 85.23, which ranks 15th in the past five seasons. Training camp reports will likely dictate where Price’s ADP ends up by the start of the NFL season. Recent reports that Zach Charbonnet could play in Week 1 and George Holani‘s buzz heading into camp may keep Price at a reasonable cost come draft season.
The Seahawks are high on George Holani and plan to give him a good chunk of the work alongside No. 32 overall pick Jadarian Price, per @BradyHenderson pic.twitter.com/CuYcr1ghlP
— SleeperSeahawks (@SleeperSeahawks) July 23, 2026
While they may not project to be a Super Bowl favorite like the Seattle Seahawks, the Dallas Cowboys should be elite. I do not have to make the case for Javonte Williams to break out in 2026 because he already did it last season. Everything about the Cowboys’ offense is the same as last year. The Cowboys made no meaningful additions at RB this offseason and are running it back with Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and George Pickens. While Williams may not have the upside to finish as a top-5 RB this season, he is a value in drafts at his current ADP of RB17.
Takaeaways
In fantasy football, RBs are one of the most valuable positions because of their scarcity. While there are only 32 starting RBs, most fantasy leagues have two RB slots, along with a flex slot. This gives the decision to draft the right RB and navigate ambiguous backfields more weight than drafting a streamable QB or TE. Minimizing risk while targeting opportunities and projected playoff teams in drafts should lead to success at RB.