The Overreaction Episode! + Best Ball Breakdown, Jungle Traps
Don’t freak out! On today’s fantasy football podcast, Andy, Mike, and Jason pick players and situations that fantasy managers are overreacting about for 2023! Find out who will be overvalued and undervalued in fantasy football drafts! Plus, the first Best Ball Breakdown of the year! Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast. — Fantasy Football Podcast for May 18th, 2023.
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SUMMARY:
Introductions 00:00
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The hosts introduce themselves as Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright.
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The show is about overreactions to fantasy football moves and best ball breakdown.
Overreaction takes 01:37
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The hosts select things they believe the fantasy football community will overreact to for the 2023 season.
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They explain that recency bias often leads to overreactions based on the previous year’s performance.
“Whatever happened last year is certainly going to happen this year, right guys?” 01:57
Megalashow and Underdog Fantasy 02:10
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They mention their upcoming Megalashow, their biggest live event, taking place on August 26th.
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They encourage people to purchase tickets if they want to attend, available at ballerslive.com.
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They also mention their sponsor for the show, Underdog Fantasy.
Ultimate Draft Kit 03:24
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They are excited about the upcoming release of the Ultimate Draft Kit on June 1st, available at ultimatedraftkit.com.
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They mention that they’re working on 100-plus player profile videos for the UDK, which is a lot of work, but they’re eager to share their findings.
“Those videos make me so much smarter.” 04:37
Dynasty Leagues and Waiver Settings 05:14
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Aaron from Oklahoma asks how to go about daily waivers and settings on game days for his very first Dynasty League startup draft coming up in June.
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The hosts suggest keeping the system simple by running waivers every morning and using a fab auction style bidding war to bid for eligible players.
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The waivers are locked on Tuesday to allow transactions for the week, and then every morning, depending on the league, waivers will run at 8 or 9 am.
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Waivers on game day, when they run, will happen in the morning and then be open waivers for the remainder of the day.
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In Dynasty Leagues, daily waivers and settings are pretty straightforward given most players remain on rosters and bench is 18 to 20 deep.
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The hosts advise there is no need to be too stressed about finding someone off of Dynasty waivers at the last minute by keeping things simple and by having the waiver run every day.
“We have open waivers after the waiver time period on in our redraft league though, or in our keeper league…when you do need to have pivot options…and with all the new Dynasty League starting up, that being this time of year, we have a new article…how to commission a Dynasty Fantasy Football League…if you already are commission, you want to find out how bad you’ve been, go read that article and step up your game.” 06:34
Overreaction to Rookie QB Anthony Richardson 09:12
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Appropriate reaction is key to successful fantasy football
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With 11 or 9 other players in a league, there will be lots of reactions, making it important to know where to buy into hype
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Potential overreaction seen in the fantasy football universe for Anthony Richardson, rookie quarterback for the Colts
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ADP shows a massive reach for Richardson, with people expecting him to perform like Josh Allen, Justin Fields, Lamar Jackson, or Jalen Hurts
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However, this is not right, and it is not a good process
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Richardson is a great prospect who might develop into a successful NFL quarterback, but he will not perform well right at the start
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Josh Allen‘s rookie year serves as a useful reference, with him performing quite poorly in the first half of the season
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Richardson has 13 college starts under his belt, and his accuracy is an area he still needs to work on to become a successful NFL quarterback
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Picking Richardson as a top 10 quarterback in the draft seems like a wasted pick, as he is likely to perform poorly in the beginning
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Although there were people who thought he was not a first-round quarterback, the talent was undoubtedly there
Anthony Richardson‘s Draft Value 13:57
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Anthony Richardson is a rookie quarterback who is receiving a lot of attention in the fantasy football world.
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Some people see him as a valuable pickup in redraft leagues, while others are more skeptical.
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Historically, even the best rookie quarterbacks have struggled, so it is important to temper expectations when drafting Richardson.
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He may be worth stashing on your bench as a long-term investment, but it’s difficult to determine where he should be drafted in redraft leagues.
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Many people may take a chance on him, but it’s important to have a solid backup plan.
“Someone’s going to say the value, the upside, the swing for the fences mentality says upside when it’s championships.” 14:37
“They will bring you at least some stability as you wait for Richardson to progress.” 16:16
Pros and Cons of Drafting Anthony Richardson 16:23
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While Anthony Richardson has a great deal of potential, there are some concerns about his ability to produce consistently.
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Many rookie quarterbacks struggle to adjust to the NFL, and Richardson is likely to have growing pains as well.
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His rushing ability could help make up for some of his shortcomings in the passing game, but he may still struggle to put up big numbers right away.
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It is important to weigh the risks and rewards of drafting Richardson, and to have realistic expectations about his potential production.
“I think there will be success rookie season, but it’s not going to be a good draft pick.” 17:13
“And I think the, like if, if Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts and Justin Fields didn’t just happen, if those guys, nobody would be drafting Anthony Richardson like this.” 17:27
“Do you guys think though, so that 600 yard mark, do you think Richardson will make it past that?” 17:29
Richardson’s Rushing Potential 17:35
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Despite some concerns about his passing ability, Anthony Richardson has the potential to be a major producer in the running game.
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With his exceptional athleticism, he could be a force as a rusher, particularly when things get tough in the NFL.
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Richardson could top 600 rushing yards as a rookie, which would be a significant accomplishment.
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It remains to be seen just how much he will rely on his legs as a quarterback, but it is certainly a factor to keep in mind.
“I have them about almost 800 yards on the ground.” 17:38
DJ Moore‘s Fantasy Outlook 18:00
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DJ Moore is a talented wide receiver who has had a difficult time producing consistently in the NFL.
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He has been in some challenging situations, including underperforming quarterbacks and coaching changes.
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However, many people still believe in his talent and potential, and are hoping that he can finally break out in the coming season.
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With a stronger quarterback situation in Carolina this year, Moore may have a chance to succeed and become a valuable fantasy asset.
Fantasy football wide receivers on the Chicago Bears 18:30
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Justin Fields is a good quarterback for fantasy football, but not because he is an elite passer yet.
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Justin Fields ranks 28th in deep adjusted completion percent last year, which is not good.
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DJ Moore is being drafted high in best ball right now, but his upgrade is not there.
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The volume is not going to be there, and DJ Moore has only scored more than 12 points twice last year.
“Last year, DJ Moore, sixth in deep targets, Justin Fields last year ranks 28th and deep adjusted completion percent last year… That is in fact near the league bottom.” 19:38
Bears wide receivers in fantasy football 19:57
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The wide receivers’ group in the Chicago Bears only averages 18 fantasy points per game.
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They do not have a wide receiver one, and their combined numbers in the past year do not show a dominant receiver.
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In best ball for underdog fantasy, DJ Moore is being drafted as the wide receiver 21, ahead of names such as DeAndre Hopkins and Keenan Allen.
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DJ Moore has big games, but touchdowns are difficult to predict.
“Great player that has big games, hard to predict when those are going to be. Touchdowns are very difficult for him to reach, you know, thresholds that are relevant for fantasy… potential bust.” (1296, 1351)
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People are hoping that DJ Moore‘s upside might come through with a Bears uniform.
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Analogues such as Stefan Diggs, Josh Allen, AJ Brown, Deandre Hopkins, and Kyler Murray are mentioned, but DJ Moore is shaping up to be a potential bust.
Brian Schottenheimer and Kellan Moore coaching changes 23:00
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Kellan Moore, who oversaw the Dallas Cowboys‘ offense, was fired after many years, and Brian Schottenheimer was added to their coaching staff.
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Brian Schottenheimer’s name may not be very popular or attractive.
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Brian Schottenheimer has only finished with a top 15 offense once, out of the 12 years he has been an offensive coordinator.
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There is a fear that Dallas would be more focused on running and become way more run heavy.
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Some people are saying that this move might have a negative impact on CD Lamb, who was one of the best receivers in football.
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Dallas already ran the ball a lot in the past years and had the highest rate in McCarthy’s career, so they may not run more than 45% of the time.
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CD lamb was the heart of the offense in the previous year, and he received 107 receptions on 26% of his routes, which is seventh-best in football.
Analyzing top Wide Receivers 27:18
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The commentator identifies a player as a top-10 wide receiver due to his talent.
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The player he’s referring to is “the clear number one” receiver for his team.
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The quarterback of this team is Dak, who, in the commentator’s opinion, is “a good quarterback.”
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Though the wide receiver has tremendous talent, the commentator has fears that if the volume comes down, his efficiency might go up.
“Yeah, I’ve still got him as a top 10 wide receiver because he’s so talented.” 27:18
Breaking down Deck’s options 27:31
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The commentator says that the Dallas Cowboys team that Deck is in has better options this season to throw the ball to than they did last year.
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One of the additional options is healthy, a certain Michael Gallup, and there is an additional player the commentator calls “an additional Brandon Cooks.”
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The commentator uses the metaphor of “crackers,” discussing options for Deck beyond their top receiver.
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In his opinion, “Saltines” and “Ritz” are not the best options, being too salty, and puts Triscuits as somewhere in the middle between a biscuit and Tricycle.
“I do think that the options that Deck has to throw the ball to are better this season than they were last season. You’ve got a healthy Michael Gallup. You have an additional Brandon cooks because their depth chart last year was like CD lamb and crackers… Saltines and Ritz on the joint. It’s got to be the wheat then… Wheat thins are definitely in the cracker aisle. What else would it be? A thin?” 29:07
Overreactions from Underdog Best Ball Drafts 29:49
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The commentator identifies the overreaction on the top tight ends picks from the underdog best ball draft.
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Comparing the picks of last year to this year, the commentator says Travis Kelsey is worth his value even if his draft position is in the middle of the first round.
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The commentator believes that if what happened last year to Travis Kelsey happens again this year, he is worth being the one-on-one pick.
Tight End Position Outlook 31:05
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The tight end position in Fantasy Football is not going to be the same as it was last year.
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While people may be inclined to spend high draft capital to acquire players like Travis Kelce, his current perceived value may be overinflated.
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There is recency bias in people’s outlook on the tight end position.
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It’s important to note that what happened last year was an outlier.
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Andrews, Waller, and Hawkinson are back to being healthy and could provide good value.
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Kyle Pitts is considered by some experts to have potential for a breakout year.
Comparing Kelce and Andrews as top tight ends 35:13
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Kelce and Andrews are both top tight ends, and while Andrews carries risk, Kelsey is a player who can win a week.
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Kelce can get it done repeatedly and has had multiple games with multiple touchdowns whereas Andrews has only had one.
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Kelce is locked in as the best tight end, while Andrews is projected to be the tight end two.
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Andrews can lose target share depending on healthy players such as Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, and Odell Beckham Jr.
“Travis Kelce isn’t just the best tight end. Travis Kelsey is a player who can win you a week…He gave me three weeks out of the year where he caught three touchdowns. He caught four touchdowns in a week this past year. So, that’s where I’m okay going on Kelsey that early.” 36:29
Overreaction to choosing Kelsey in the first round 37:40
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People are overreacting to selecting Kelsey in the first round.
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Kelce was chosen over other players (Tyreek Hill, Austin Eckler, Diggs, AJ Brown, Devonte Adams, Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson) in a recent draft.
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There are some names to keep an eye on, such as Goddard, Njoku, or a potential breakout by Pitts.
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Going in on Kelce early removes the flexibility in choosing other potential breakout tight ends.
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The advantage Kelce provides might not be the same if tight end two through five ends up being what it was in the past.
Draft strategy – Tight Ends 39:17
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If you don’t draft Travis Kelce, your emergency parachute is Mark Andrews.
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The round will go through quickly and your plan may blow up.
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Missing out on Andrews could ruin your strategy.
Overreaction: Calvin Ridley 39:42
“So the market is saying we are so super confident that Calvin Ridley who hasn’t played football in seven hundred days is the number one that we are taking as the wide receiver seventeen. And I think that that is not just a mistake. I think that is an egregious where do you have.” 42:34
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Calvin Ridley‘s ADP is too high considering he hasn’t played football in almost 700 days.
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Ridley was suspended for a year due to betting on a football game.
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In the five games Ridley played in the season before his suspension, he had an average of 27% target share and only finished inside the top 24 once.
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The last time we saw Ridley play, he left the game due to mental health issues, which may have affected his performance on the field.
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Ridley is being drafted as WR17, but there are concerns about his ability to perform as the number one wide receiver for the Atlanta Falcons.
Calvin Ridley‘s Risk and Potential 43:27
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Jason expresses his anti-Calvin Ridley views, but Mike believes there are strong arguments to have Ridley ranked highly.
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Despite acknowledging Ridley’s risk, Mike notes that there’s a world where Ridley, a talented player with a high ceiling, could be a WR1.
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Andy points out Mike’s ranking discrepancy between Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk, however.
“There are risks involved with Calvin Ridley. No question about it. You’re taking a lot of projection and a lot of hope, and you’re mixing it together and saying man, this would be great if it comes out on top.” 44:06
“I think Calvin Ridley could be…a wide receiver one this year. I’m not projecting them there, but at wide receiver sixteen, I’ve taken a handful of Calvins in my recent drafts.” 44:53
Discussion on Calvin Ridley‘s Upside and Risk 45:30
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There are narratives regarding Calvin Ridley‘s potential as a player despite playing on the other side of Julio Jones.
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His ability to rack up yardage and be a touchdown guy multiple seasons is a sign of his skills.
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Despite being at the riskier end, Calvin Ridley is still a player with a lot of upside.
“I understand there’s narratives about playing on the other side of Julio Jones, but it’s the yards per catch, the ability to pile up yardage, and the ability to be a touchdown guy in multiple seasons, 10, 7, and 9…So that’s why he’s at the tippy-top of the upside of this wide receiver room to me, despite the fact he has that risk.” 45:42
Deconstruction of Chris’s Prediction of the Arizona Cardinals 47:19
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The team has dealt with plenty of negative press this off-season and has a lot to prove.
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Players like Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, and Budda Baker are highly skilled and the team could still potentially find success given the situation.
Deandre Hopkins‘ Value in Fantasy Football 48:45
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Deandre Hopkins is a very talented player who should not be overlooked in drafts.
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Before his injury, Kyler Murray was averaging over 20 fantasy points per game.
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Even without Murray, Hopkins had a 29% target share and was averaging almost 11 targets and 75 receiving yards per game.
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Hopkins is still one of the best pure receivers in football and should be targeted heavily by whoever comes in as quarterback.
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Hopkins is being drafted lower than players such as Mike Williams, Christian Watson, Calvin Ridley, and DJ Moore, making him a potential steal in drafts.
“Deandre Hopkins is still an NFL alpha, he’s like one of the best wide receivers in the league.” 50:45
Changes in Best Ball Draft Tendencies 53:37
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Best ball is a type of fantasy football where players draft a roster, but do not set lineups each week. The platform automatically chooses the players who score the most points for each position.
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Many wide receivers are going off the board in the early rounds of best ball drafts.
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There has been a change in draft tendencies between 2022 and 2023 in best ball leagues.
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More running backs are being drafted in the earlier rounds compared to previous years.
Best Ball Fantasy Football 54:00
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Best Ball Fantasy Football is a great way for players to draft a team and follow it along through the season.
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You don’t need to do waivers, start/sit lineup, or make any moves after your draft.
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This is a great way to get better at fantasy football and understand different strategies used by other players.
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Players put money down to win in these tournaments ranging from three dollars to twenty-five dollars.
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If a user wants to do something other than a 12 man league, they can try Best Ball Mania.
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Best Ball Mania is a giant tournament with 15 million dollars in prizes that will be going to the regular season champion (one-third of the total prize money).
“Best Ball Fantasy Football is so good for getting better at fantasy, for knowing what are the strategies being used.” 54:53
Quarterbacks in Best Ball 55:50
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Quarterbacks have been pushed up immensely in Best Ball Fantasy Football.
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The top three quarterbacks, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, and Patrick Mahomes, have had a huge impact on the draft.
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The last couple of years, four to five quarterbacks have been drafted in the first five rounds, but this year eight are going within the first five rounds.
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However, the premium price for those three players has pushed up the value of the next five quarerbacks too high.
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The hosts suggest taking one of the three great quarterbacks early on or going with a cheaper alternative such as Derek Carr or Mac Jones.
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Be aware that there may be differences between Best Ball ADP data and redraft arguments.
The changing value of running backs 58:49
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In 2020, 14 running backs were taken off the board in the top 20 picks, but currently there are only five running backs in the top 20 picks (as of the time of recording).
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Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, and Dalvin Cook are top running backs in current fantasy football drafts.
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The third round traditionally been referred to as the “dead zone” for running backs in fantasy football as all starters are gone, but there are still some fantasy QBs who will go for a running back in the first two rounds.
“Now because they’re getting pushed down in the third round, you’ve got Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, Rhamondre Stevenson–I couldn’t resist the names–that’s outrageous value to get a running back of that caliber in the third, and then in the fourth…it’s not necessarily as great but Jammere Gibbs, high upside. Najee Harris…he’s not an elite first round running back but he’s not a dead zone running back, he’s a guy that you should be super happy to have as a stable running back. [Kenneth] Walker in the late fourth.” 59:52
Constructing a successful roster 01:00:34
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Researched drafting strategies to construct a successful fantasy football roster.
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Suggests going wide receiver, wide receiver if you can get one of the top running backs in the third round.
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Want a strategy so that you can have a plan for your first round pick.
“You just need to have a strategy when you’re taking that first-round pick and you say, ‘Okay, this is the way that I’m gonna play this specific draft,’ because you can have hundreds of these drafts if you want, or dozens, or two or three and play in hundreds. You play with your builds, and as we ramp up and get closer to fantasy season, we’re gonna be giving you guys tips and lay of the lands and all sorts of information on basically how to construct your roster and be good at this because we want you guys to succeed and have fun, like we’re doing.” 01:00:51
Best Ball Breakdown 01:01:48
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Best Ball is a fantasy football variation where your lineup is automatically optimized so you get the best possible score.
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Presenting a Best Ball Breakdown on the podcast