AFC East Breakdown + Hard Knocks Fantasy Heroes
2023 fantasy preview for the Bills, Dolphins, Patriots, and Jets on today’s fantasy football podcast! What impact will Aaron Rodgers have on the Jets offense? Plus, a new edition of Best Ball Breakdown! Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast. — Fantasy Football Podcast for July 13th, 2023.
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Summary:
Hard Knocks Jets 01:19
Ayahuasca and Dark Room 01:38
- The hosts joke about ayahuasca and being in a dark room like Aaron Rodgers. 01:38
- There is a mention of blackout curtains and wearing black shirts. 01:48
“Oh, just like Aaron Rodgers. You got the ayahuasca, you got the complete.” “Yeah, but like blackout curtains, man. It’s crazy.”
Playing Pickleball Outdoors 02:07
- The hosts discuss playing pickleball outdoors and wearing black shirts. 02:07
“Yeah, we’re soft now. We’re soft.” “And then I was like, I realized I’ve just become soft and pale because we were getting tanned along with the melanoma.” “Very bad decision. And yet Owl Borland and Jason would not play pickleball out there with light color.” “The black shirts necessary. But you guys like maybe almost died a few times.”
Ultimate Draft Kit and Dynasty Podcast 03:24
- The hosts mention the availability of the Ultimate Draft Kit and a new Dynasty Podcast episode. 03:24
“The Ultimate Draft Kit is available right now at ultimatedraftkit.com.” “We have a new Dynasty Podcast episode. Dynasty Wide Receivers that released yesterday.”
Alvin Kamara Legal Case 06:08
- Alvin Kamara pleaded no contest to a misdemeanor charge related to a fight in Las Vegas. 06:08
- The hosts discuss potential NFL consequences for Kamara. 06:35
“The big news that we’ve been waiting for, Saints, well part of it.” “This sets the stage for any potential NFL consequences.” “Roger Goodell and company often come down on it now.” “I’m confident he will get a suspension, but anywhere from two or more games, that’s TBD.”
Jonathan Taylor‘s Ankle Injury 08:02
- Colts’ Jonathan Taylor had an ankle procedure to clean up the ankle. 08:02
- The hosts discuss his recovery and potential impact for training camp. 08:45
“Colt’s owner Jim Erste said Jonathan Taylor is quote, healed up.” “It is kind of a storyline in the sense that you got to remember that he’s still recovering.”
Isiah Pacheco‘s Injury 09:09
- Isaiah Pacheco may not be clear for the start of training camp. 09:09
“Some news on Isaiah Pacheco. See if those fancy feet can get going.”
“It’s a ferocious division.” “We found out that hard knocks will be heading to the AFC East this morning.” “Oh, just like Aaron Rodgers. You got the ayahuasca, you got the complete.” “Yeah, but like blackout curtains, man. It’s crazy.” “Yeah, we’re soft now. We’re soft.” “And then I was like, I realized I’ve just become soft and pale because we were getting tanned along with the melanoma.” “Very bad decision. And yet Al Borland and Jason would not play pickleball out there with light color.” “The black shirts necessary. But you guys like maybe almost died a few times.” “The Ultimate Draft Kit is available right now at ultimatedraftkit.com.” “We have a new Dynasty Podcast episode. Dynasty Wide Receivers that released yesterday.” “The big news that we’ve been waiting for, Saints, well part of it.” “This sets the stage for any potential NFL consequences.” “Roger Goodell and company often come down on it now.” “I’m confident he will get a suspension, but anywhere from two or more games, that’s TBD.” “Colt’s owner Jim Erste said Jonathan Taylor is quote, healed up.” “It is kind of a storyline in the sense that you got to remember that he’s still recovering.” “Some news on Isaiah Pacheco. See if those fancy feet can get going.”
Injury Concerns for Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Saquon Barkley 09:17
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire played through a fracture in his thumb and a torn labrum in his shoulder. 09:17
- Despite the injuries, the speaker is not very concerned because they are not affecting his legs. 09:30
- The speaker acknowledges that a shoulder injury might not be ideal for a running back who needs to hit people with his shoulder. 09:34
- However, the speaker is still not overly concerned about Edwards-Alaire’s injuries, especially since he played through them. 09:46
- The fact that the injuries are in his upper body is a positive for a running back. 09:49
“I don’t want to say you shouldn’t pay attention to it. I’m just saying the broken bone in the thumb. Look, he played through these injuries. Right. In that respect, you know, I’m just happy it’s upper body for this running back.”
- Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs are unlikely to have a long-term deal before the franchise tag deadline. 10:55
- If a long-term deal is not reached, both players may have to make a decision about holding out. 10:51
- The fear is that they might sit out the entire season or miss a significant amount of time. 12:03
- Holding out could also result in them sacrificing the franchise tag money for that year. 12:11
- The speaker acknowledges that until a deal is signed, there is a 1% worry that Barkley might miss the whole season. 12:49
“Until it’s signed, I’ll have that 1% worry that he misses the whole season.”
Impact of Holdouts on Players’ Performance and Draft Confidence 11:19
- A player who skips the conditioning and acclimation period of training camp may have a higher risk of injury. 13:10
- This is especially concerning for players who are already at a higher risk of injury due to the nature of their position. 13:14
- If players are not in football shape by week one, there may be reason for concern. 13:18
- Uncertainty surrounding holdouts can negatively impact draft confidence for higher capital picks. 13:43
- Joe Mixon and Alvin Kamara are examples of players whose draft positions might be lower due to uncertainty. 13:43
“I think their injury rate is a bit higher. So they are already a risky position for injury and draft costs.”
Outlook for the Buffalo Bills in the AFC East 14:05
- The Buffalo Bills had an impressive season last year with a 13-3 record and dominant offense. 14:15
- Despite media pessimism, the speaker sees no reason why the Bills should take a step back this year. 16:02
- The offense, led by Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs, should continue to be highly productive. 16:05
- The team’s win total has come down slightly, but the speaker attributes this to offseason changes and not a decline in the team’s ability. 15:31
- The core pieces remain intact, and opportunities for younger players like Gabe Davis and Dalton Kincaid are present. 16:36
“Their offense should just be full steam ahead this year. I don’t see any reason why it should take a step back.”
Concerns for the Bills’ Defense and Future Outlook 14:44
- The Bills’ defense was highly effective last season, but sometimes teams with strong defenses can have limitations on offense. 14:39
- However, the speaker does not see this as a concern for the Bills, as their offense and defense were able to perform well together. 14:44
- Despite a strong performance last year, the Bills are facing a slight air of pessimism, possibly due to the team’s playoff disappointment. 16:29
- The speaker does not believe the window is closing for the Bills and expects them to have a successful season. 15:48
“I don’t see that. Obviously, Diggs is getting older. If we’re talking dynasty leagues, maybe you start getting worried… But their offense should just be full steam ahead this year.”
Impact of Holdouts on Drafting Players 12:39
- The fear of a player holding out is not just about missing training camp but also the possibility of sitting out the entire season. 12:03
- Players who hold out may sacrifice the franchise tag money for that year. 12:11
- Le’Veon Bell‘s holdout and subsequent contract with the Jets is used as an example of a player who lost money in the process. 12:13
- The uncertainty of holdouts can make it tough to draft players, especially when there is a fear of them missing significant time. 12:49
“Until it’s signed, I’ll have that 1% worry that he misses the whole season.”
Impact of Skipping Training Camp on Injury Risk 13:10
- Players who skip the conditioning and acclimation period of training camp may have a higher injury risk. 13:10
- This is especially true for players who are already at a higher risk of injury due to the nature of their position. 13:14
- The speaker suggests keeping an eye on players who may not be in football shape by week one. 13:25
- Skipping training camp can raise concerns and decrease confidence in drafting these players. 13:43
“I think their injury rate is a bit higher. So they are already a risky position for injury and draft costs.”
Overview of AFC East Teams in the Previous Season 14:09
- Buffalo Bills finished the previous season with a 13-3 record, dominating the division. 14:15
- Miami Dolphins had a 9-8 record, New England Patriots 9-8, and New York Jets 7-10. 14:18
- The Bills had an impressive offense, with Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs as key fantasy producers. 14:54
“The Bills were unbelievable last year… they just kicked butt.”
Expectations for the Buffalo Bills‘ Offense in the Upcoming Season 16:05
- The Buffalo Bills‘ offense is expected to continue being highly productive. 16:05
- Despite media pessimism, there is no reason to believe that the team will take a step back. 16:02
- Key players such as Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs should maintain their fantasy relevance. 16:34
“Their offense should just be full steam ahead this year. I don’t see any reason why it should take a step back.”
Concerns Surrounding the Buffalo Bills‘ Defense 14:39
- Strong defenses can sometimes limit the fantasy production of an offense. 14:39
- However, the speaker does not believe this will be an issue for the Buffalo Bills. 14:44
- The speaker believes the Bills’ offense and defense can continue to perform well together. 14:44
“Sometimes you get concerned when their defense is too good. But Josh Allen, Stefan Diggs, that wasn’t the case.”
Dolphins Offense Changes 16:59
- Dolphins had a change in offensive coordinator last year, but it didn’t matter much.
- They added Damian Harris and Latavius Murray at running back.
- Deontay Hardy and Trent Schurfield are new wide receivers.
- Jameson Crowder, Isaiah McKinsey, and Cole Beasley were lost.
“They lost some slot players, added some slot players, and then Dalton Kincaid is the real difference in the offense.”
Dalton Kincaid 17:13
- Dolphins’ first-round tight end pick.
- Hyped for his excellent pass-catching ability, ball skills, and athleticism.
- Draft videos showed Dolphins trading up to get him, indicating high expectations.
- He has the potential to make an impact on Josh Allen and add more passing touchdowns.
“They’re saying the tight end falls to him?…Yeah. Well, you could argue that that’s extra hype on Dalton Kincaid, because they’re just saying the tight end and they all knew who they were talking about.”
Gabe Davis Potential 19:31
- Gabe Davis is considered a post-type sleeper.
- Despite some disappointment in his performance last year, he finished as the WR27.
- He was inconsistent, but there’s belief that he can improve.
- Being the WR2 in a high-powered offense gives him an opportunity for more targets and production.
“I believe he’s going to be a really good value this year because there’s not a lot of… That’s just a great opportunity.”
Other Dolphins Wide Receivers 21:52
- Cole Shakir is an interesting slot wide receiver.
- Deontay Hardy is a speedy receiver who can make occasional big plays.
- It remains to be seen if the team supports Gabe Davis or if they hype up other wide receivers.
“But for a, when you were talking about Dalton Kincaid improving things for Josh Allen, there’s going to be three to five times that, that Hardy hits with a, with a, with like a 40. Yeah.”
Running Backs Outlook 22:46
- James Cook has potential but didn’t get enough opportunities last year.
- Damien Harris and Latavius Murray were added, which might affect their workload.
- Dolphins’ running backs have generally been unreliable for fantasy football.
“I don’t think there’s enough fantasy points to go around for the running backs, generally speaking.”
James Cook vs. Damien Harris 23:51
- James Cook‘s potential usage and volume are uncertain, as he is not a physically big player.
- Damien Harris is considered a good running back and could potentially be the goal-line guy for the team.
- The key question is how much passing work James Cook will get.
- Neither running back seems desirable as a later-round pick, but there is ambiguity in the running back position that could lead to opportunities.
“I don’t think either of them is really desirable as a later-round running back, but there is ambiguity… at a running back position.”
James Cook‘s Potential 24:16
- James Cook has shown good vision and the ability to find empty space on the field.
- He has the potential to be an explosive athlete in a great offense.
- Despite limited opportunities last year, Cook demonstrated his playmaking ability and averaged 7.8, 4.6, and 9 yards per carry in his best games.
- The hope is that Cook can become a significant part of the offense and be a 55-60% snap player.
“If there’s gold to be mined in these hills, it’s not going to come from just a goal-line opportunity… it’s going to come from being an explosive athlete in a great offense who has enough opportunity to break off big run after big run chunk plays.”
Miami Dolphins Running Back Situation 31:13
- The podcast hosts are skeptical about relying on Devon A-chain as a fantasy running back for Miami.
- They believe the situation is ambiguous and prefer to take late chances on Jeff Wilson or Rahim Moser.
- All three running backs are available after the 10th round, making them potential value picks.
- A high-powered offense with a primary running back would provide a significant reward for a double-digit round running back.
“So it would just, it would surprise me if Devon A-chain is truly the running back that you want on your fantasy teams from Miami.” 31:13
“But for me, it’s Jeff Wilson, who I have ranked the highest of the three.” 31:31
Outlook on Devon Achane as a Rookie 31:59
- Devon A-chain is a rookie running back for the Miami Dolphins.
- The hosts have him ranked in the fifties and see him as a better weapon on the football field than in fantasy rosters.
- They note that he lacks volume and Jason has him well ahead of ADP at RB 24.
“I want to take some chances on.” 31:25
“Mike and I have him in the fifties. We see him as a weapon that is probably better on the football field than he is in your fantasy roster.” 32:12
Comparison of A-chain to Other Running Backs 32:26
- One of the hosts draws a parallel between cautious views on A-chain and previous discussions about players like Javante Williams and Dalton Kincaid.
- They discuss the need for a special argument to predict A-chain as a top 24 running back and consider factors such as the usage of Mike McDaniel, belief in Jeff Wilson and Rahim Moser, and contract renewals for Moser and Wilson.
“I heard your argument against A-chain and it reminds me a lot of kind of why you were cautioning people about Javante Williams.” 32:26
“I bet completely against running backs at 100 and sub 90 pounds. It just doesn’t work out. Historically, evidence is against it.” 34:23
Assessment of A-chain’s Speed and Potential 34:04
- The hosts discuss the exceptional speed of both Rahim Moser (4-4-3) and Devon A-chain (4-3-2).
- They view A-chain as an outlier with the capability to excel in a one-cut system alongside Tyreek and Jalen Waddle.
- While acknowledging the risk of his size, they believe A-chain’s special situation and talent could lead to big plays.
“Devon A-chain is other world. He’s 4-3-2. So when you talk about, he is an outlier.” 34:12
“That’s just what I see here. I see a 4-3-2 guy who landed in the perfect one-cut system with Tyreek and Jalen Waddle.” 34:29
Analysis of the Miami Dolphins and AFC East 34:52
- The hosts express excitement about watching the Miami Dolphins and suggest they could potentially battle the Buffalo Bills for the division later in the season.
- They provide a contrasting description of the New England Patriots as a team with a desaturated environment and a malaise feeling.
- Concerns are raised about New England’s quarterback situation, subtraction of key players, and the lack of excitement surrounding Mac Jones.
“Like I’d like, this is a team that I think, you know, if you talk about pessimism or the win total for Buffalo, like, there’s a world where we’re talking about Miami and Buffalo battling for this division later in the season.” 34:52
“If Buffalo is like a beautiful meadow that you’ve hung on in your hallway… the Patriots feel like the upside down.” 35:13
The bet against New England based on their tough schedule 38:10
- New England has the hardest strength of schedule, according to Warren Sharp.
- Their difficult division and lack of offensive talent are also factors.
“The bet is against New England, though, based upon the fact that they have the hardest strength of schedule, according to Warren Sharp. They have probably the most difficult division to play in and not a lot of talent on the offensive side.”
Fantasy outlook for New England Patriots 38:29
- New England’s defense is regarded as strong.
- They ranked eighth in yards allowed and allowed the fewest rushing touchdowns.
- The defense is a key factor in their hopes of winning.
“But this is a good defense too. There are eighth and yards allowed. Fewest rushing touchdowns allowed. That’s the recipe. That’s the only way to win. So they’re not bringing sexy back is what I’m saying.”
Speculation about the Patriots’ running back situation 38:54
- There is disagreement within the podcast regarding Ramon Dre Stevenson’s ranking.
- Damien Harris, a good running back, has departed the team.
- Time on Gumry, who has been in the league since 2015, might still be in contention.
- Pierre Strong and Kevin Harris are also on the roster.
“No, Mike does have Ramon Dre ridiculously high in his rankings. I do. Because you mentioned the player they lost, Damien Harris is gone and Damien Harris is a good running back. The other guys that are on this roster, we’re talking about time on Gumry, who maybe he’s in the plans… And then it’s Pierre Strong and Kevin Harris to later round guys.”
Uncertainty and concerns about the Jets and Dolphins’ running back situation 40:46
- Concerns arise if Ramon Dre Stevenson of the Patriots goes down due to lack of depth.
- The Miami Dolphins are rumored to have made an offer to Dalvin Cook.
“Sorry, just to go back also to the dolphins, cause we were having a big running back discussion. There was a rumor out there that Dalvin Cook has an offer currently from the Miami Dolphins… If he signs, then what we said about taking a shot on the other guys, just throw that away.”
High expectations for the New York Jets 41:24
- The New York Jets are considered a polarizing and interesting team.
- High anticipation for the team’s appearance on the show Hard Knocks.
- Several players, including Zach Wilson, Garrett Wilson, and Sauce Gardner, are of interest.
- The coaching staff, including Robert Saleh, adds to the excitement.
“I think three teams in this division could win the Super Bowl. I really do. I think the jets, the dolphins and, and Buffalo could win the Super Bowl. You’re going to make a lot of people happy when you say that… Well, not the Patriots fans.”
Evaluating the Jets Offense 45:04
- The Jets’ offense struggled last year after losing one of the best receivers in the game.
- The absence of Devonte Adams affected the performance of quarterback Zach Wilson.
- Comparisons can be made to Patrick Mahomes losing Tyreek Hill, but it is unclear if the impact was the same.
- Wilson’s performance on the field seemed to decline without Adams.
“I just thought he looked not as good. Not as great.”
Best Ball Breakdown 52:52
- This segment focuses on the ADP price check for round seven of best ball drafts in basketball.
- The hosts discuss players with potential upside and value in this round of the draft.
“To get a starting running back who could be seeing 16 plus carries and four plus targets per week, that’s an outrageous level of volume that could show up potentially in the seventh round.”
Rachaad White – Starting RB for Buccaneers 53:46
- Rashad White, the starting running back for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, is mentioned as a potential target in the seventh round.
- While his production was limited last year, his volume suggests a significant opportunity for fantasy points.
- His role may change with a different offensive system, but he is expected to be the lead back to start the season.
“A starting running back in the seventh round who saw 50 plus receptions and one of 11 rookie running backs over the last decade to do that.”
Jahan Dotson – Wide Receiver 54:49
- John Dotson is highlighted as a wide receiver worth considering in the seventh round.
- The hosts believe Dotson has the potential for a breakout season with a new offensive coordinator and two new quarterbacks.
- They rank Dotson ahead of other wide receivers in his ADP range.
“This is a thousand-yard plus receiver. I think that is kind of a conservative estimate for him this year with what this offense is going to try to do.”
Jordan Addison – Promising Rookie 56:25
- Jordan Nattison is described as a super talented wide receiver and a potential league-winner.
- The hosts highlight that Nattison has a great opportunity in his rookie year with the Minnesota Vikings.
- With the departure of Adam Thielen, Nattison could see significant targets and scoring opportunities.
“He’s super good at football. He’s a great wide receiver. He’s a Blitnikoff award winner, and he lands in a place where his opportunity from week one is going to be outlandish.”
David Montgomery – Goal Line Scorer 58:55
- David Montgomery is discussed as a seventh-round option with the potential to score 8 to 12 touchdowns this year.
- Montgomery is expected to inherit the goal line role previously held by Jamal Williams in the Chicago Bears‘ offense.
- Despite concerns about Jared Goff‘s performance around the goal line, Montgomery is viewed as a strong touchdown scorer.
“I think David Montgomery in the seventh round is going to be an eight to 12 touchdown scorer this year.”