Pace of Play: Matchups & Stacks for Week 7 (Fantasy Football)
It is wild but 33% of the regular season… gone!
On to Week 7!
Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matter in a world where volume is king.
Each week I’ll highlight my favorite game environments factoring in their pace metrics and stacks to consider for DFS tournaments.
Game Pace Score
A reminder of a simple metric I introduced a couple of years ago: Game Pace Score(GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.
- 5– A back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace-up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
- 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
- 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
- 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
- 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.
For Week 7, I’ve sorted by implied totals for all 28 teams playing (BUF, JAX, LAC, WAS on bye) while focusing on neutral pace, pass rate over expectation (PROE), and EPA ranks and factor that for a final “GPS score”. For EPA, we will look at rank per-drop back and per-rush attempt for both offense and defense.
For those that would like a CSV version of the above chart, you can download Pace of Play- Week 7.
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
This is one of our highest graded GPS scores of the year. The game total, the neutral pace of both teams, and the desire to throw the ball over and over again is what we care about for DFS. Oh, and the Lions defense stinks. How bad are they? Detroit ranks 32nd in % of drives resulting in a TD, 31st in EPA per play, and 30th in play success rate allowed.
The best part about evaluating the Packers is you know where the ball is going: Watson, Golden, Kraft. While adding Josh Jacobs into the mix might shift some of Green Bay’s emphasis on throwing, the big splash plays are what we want. Jordan Love has completed 16 of 25 passes for 444 yards and four touchdowns when targeting Christian Watson downfield this season (10+ air yards), the most yards by any QB-receiver duo. Golden has morphed from a lightly utilized rookie last year to an every down jolt of energy drawing PI like no one else in the league. Through six weeks, Golden ranks in the top-5 percentile of WRs league-wide in snap rate, target share, air yards share, YAC, 1st downs per route run, and 1st read target share. The Lions remain dead last against fantasy QBs and TEs, and 30th versus WRs. Jordan Love is severely underpriced considering his ceiling outcomes and Tucker Kraft needs to be in your player pool. Love ranks 5th in early down passing yardage so hopefully Jacobs returning does not ruin what they’ve been so successful with this year.
Jahmyr Gibbs is aligning in the slot on 10% of his routes (highest rate of his career) reminding us how this team views him: a do-it-all weapon. His price ($9,800-DK) demands 30+ points in a tournament and we know how easy it is for him to score in a hurry. However, we also have not seen a Gibbs dud game so the field can certainly remain too overconfident. Fading Gibbs suggests the red zone TDs could flow through Sam LaPorta, who carries an incredibly strong negative correlation coefficient (-0.74) over the last year. However, you also could talk yourself into the other options as Amon-Ra St. Brown has been targeted on 40% of his red zone routes this year, trailing only JSN (48%). You probably need to check in on me every week realted to Jameson Williams because he is always a wildcard. Through five games, he has run a crossing route on a career-low 13.0% of his total routes run, the money routes we need for someone who doesn’t necessarily rack up PPR volume. The Packers defense has limited explosive passing plays this year tying the Seahawks for the lowest rate (4.1%) in the NFL. Much of that is due to the 4th highest 2-high safety rate (65%) in the league while maintaining a top-10 pressure rate.
Each team's coverage mix through Week 6 pic.twitter.com/TjyCabytWh
— SūmerSports (@SumerSports) October 20, 2026
Stacking Options
- Jordan Love + Matthew Golden or Christian Watson + Tucker Kraft || Amon-Ra St. Brown
- Jared Goff + Sam LaPorta || Matthew Golden or Christian Watson
- Jahmyr Gibbs || Matthew Golden or Christian Watson
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
This AFC North street fight is expecting Lamar Jackson to return but we do need to contextualize how these two teams play first. Both play rather slow with Baltimore’s methodical style (29th in neutral pace) somewhat skewed over the last few weeks with Tyler Huntley under center. Cincinnati might rank 2nd in pass rate over expectation but Zac Taylor isn’t necessarily one of my favorite play-callers in the league. The Bengals are 31st in motion rate and just 18th in explosive play rate. Since the beginning of 2023, CIN/BAL games have averaged a healthy 53.8 points with the Ravens winning 5 of those but we must remember those were John Harbaugh-coached teams.
The Bengals are coming off a bye but their players are priced up as always in DFS. It presents a simple conundrum but a basic question: will they be played much by the field? That, too me, is almost just as important as predicting the game flow. Chase Brown is screaming for some positive TD regression as he has just one TD despite averaging a heathy 25.9 weighted opportunities per game. He will be overshadowed by Derrick Henry and other RBs on the slate but in large field tournaments, consider him a CIN pass-catcher as his 13% 1st read target share is tied for 2nd best on this slate among RBs behind only Ashton Jeanty. A Burrow double stack (with either Chase or Higgins) needs to exceed 75+ DK points to start cooking and consider that a Burrow + Brown + Higgins is a much more tenable route in my opinion.
The Ravens offense sputtered in the 2nd half last week against Cleveland running the fewest plays (19) of any team fizzling out with five unsuccessful drives in a row. If we look at just the first month of the season when Lamar was active, Baltimore ranked 2nd in EPA per drop back, 2nd in play success rate, and 2nd in explosive play rate for BOTH rushing and passing. In other words, they were crushing under new OC Declan Doyle’s system. They also ranked top-10 in motion (6th) and play-action (10th) rates in that span. The emergence of Ja’Kobi Lane opposite Zay Flowers will be something to monitor if you are trying to add another pass-catcher from the Baltimore side to your mix. The Bengals defense runs a ton of Cover-1/man looks (4th highest in NFL) where Flowers laps his teammates in target share (30%), air yards share (34%), and YPRR (3.07) since the beginning of 2025. An expensive Lamar will likely not be clicked a ton coming off an injury so if you want to “play it before you see it”, this is your chance. Derrick Henry at home is always on the table if you think Baltimore builds and sustains a lead through the big man falling into the end zone once or twice.
Stacking Options
- Joe Burrow + Chase Brown + Tee Higgins || Zay Flowers
- Lamar Jackson + Ja’Kobi Lane || Ja’Marr Chase
- Derrick Henry + BAL DST
San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons
I share this all the time on the podcast about the Falcons: when the world is counting on them, fade! However, when everyone expects them to fail, there is an opportunity. After losing to the Bears horribly last week, Atlanta faces their old OC Kyle Shanahan at home against an undefeated 49ers team. Both teams play rather slow with Atlanta playing dreadfully slow according to ETR’s Pat Thorman ranking 26th in neutral play-clock seconds and 31st in neutral pace over expected. If Atlanta somehow gets a lead early, this one could fall flat.
The defensive matchup is fascinating to me with former Atlanta HC Raheem Morris running San Fran’s defense while ATL’s DC (Jeff Ulbrich) played with the 49ers for a decade. They have some similar splits while it is worth noting Atlanta is running Cover-3 or 4 shells 60% of the time this year.
San Fran’s offense is a juggernaut despite losing multiple receivers every single week to injuries. Brock Purdy is a front runner for MVP thanks to leading all QBs in EPA while ranking 2nd in fantasy points per drop back. His efficiency and ability to layer throws in the intermediate area of the field over defenders is elite. With Mike Evans status up in the air, it is a Purdy skinny stack with Kittle for me or CMC + the SF DST. You could go bargain shopping in large field tournaments for backup SF WRs but I also worry if this game ultimately fails to shootout like we want.
Atlanta had some issues last week including going to a silent count at home (!?) last week versus Chicago while giving Bijan just 11 total touches. Kevin Stefanski said “of course” he wishes the Falcons got the ball in Bijan Robinson‘s hands earlier, part of it is “game flow”. I have no idea what that means but for DFS purposes, I’m still in on a player who means everything to this offense. It is rare to see the Falcons stay competitive without a show out Bijan game. On the season, he is averaging 41% of the team’s total rush attempts and targets. The passing game is always a coin flip: is Michael Penix protected in a clean pocket or not? He has the lowest INT rate in the league… when not pressured. He ranks 7th in yards per attempt and 5th in adjusted completion percentage… when not pressured. The 49ers have blitzed at the 6th lowest rate this year preferring to stay in “base” at the 8th highest rate in the league. However, they did crowd the line a ton last week against the Commanders forcing Jayden Daniels into a ton of quick decisions. It was surprising to find out that Jahan Dotson leads this team in target share (26%) when Falcons QBs have been blitzed this year and he has been more involved than you’d imagine. I’m not messing around with Penix in this contest personally. Oh, Kyle Pitts?The 49ers are #1 against fantasy TEs this year and his 14% 1st read target share on the season remains to low for me.
Stacking Options
- Brock Purdy + George Kittle || Drake London or Jahan Dotson
- Christian McCaffrey + SF DST