Pace of Play: Matchups & Stacks for Week 1 (Fantasy Football)
I’ve been previewing games for the Footballers for over a decade but this Pace of Play article might be my favorite avenue to get my head around a week’s slate.
The term “pace of play” is an all-encompassing way of highlighting the game flow, specific intra-game matchups, and considerable outcomes for how an NFL game might play out. We have one-game to consider but a myriad of possibilities of what could occur. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matter in a world where volume is king.
Each week I’ll highlight my favorite game environments factoring in their pace metrics and stacks to consider for DFS tournaments.
Game Pace Score
A reminder of a simple metric I introduced a couple of years ago: Game Pace Score(GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.
- 5– A back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace-up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
- 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
- 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
- 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
- 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.
For Week 1, I’ve sorted by all 32 team implied totals while focusing on seconds per play, pass rate over expectation (PROE), and EPA ranks from the 2025 seasons, and factor that for a final “GPS score”.
IMPORTANT NOTE
I do need caution about using last year’s data. Week 1 is easily the most fragile week for projections as we bring an off-season of bias into these games. It is wild how every single year we all truly forget how much chaos ensues over the course of an NFL season that influences rankings and metrics. I certainly feel immune to it before kickoff and the onslaught of changes ensue.
In a recent article: (Just the Stats: 10 Usage Trends to Know for 2026), I highlighted a number of scheme changes I will be monitoring throughout the NFL season. With 10 new head coaches and 21 new OCs, perhaps we should be more open to the fact we do not know these teams as well as we might think.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals
Let’s start with the most obvious matchup of the week: TB @ CIN. The total has been bet down to 50.5 but this game profiles as the best game environment for scoring for multiple reasons. Cincy games averaged 53.3 combined points per game last year trailing only the Cowboys. Chalk that up to the defense as the pain points were numerous across the board:
- 31st in EPA allowed on play-action passes
- 32nd in EPA allowed on 2-high safety looks
- 29th in explosive play rate
- 29th in both EPA per pass and rush attempt allowed
It was over-the-top bad and the team made a concerted effort this off-season to rectify their sins trading for All-Pro DT Dexter Lawrence and adding EDGE Boye Mage and safety Bryan Cook in free agency. On the Buccaneers side, we do need to let go of any carry-over feelings of how the team finished the 2025 season. They started the year 6-2 but then collapsed wotj a 2-7 record after their Week 9 bye. How bad was it? The Buccaneers failed to cover the spread in any of their final 9 games. Woof! New OC Zac Robinson brings a fresh approach and the drama of Baker Mayfield‘s contract extension can now be put to bed.
Want to read the rest of this article?
Get the 2026 Ultimate DFS Pass for instant access. Expert advice, weekly picks, premium reports, trusted & award-winning weekly resources.
Get the 2026 DFS PassAlready purchased the DFS Pass? Log in here
