Select NFL DFS Tournament Takes & Leverage Points: Week 7 (Fantasy Football)

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We can also put weather aside. No shenanigans in the forecast for the main slate.

• Which chalk deserves the attention?
• Where are we giving up too much projection just to be different?
• And how can we turn those answers into better tournament lineups?

Slate Overview

WR presents some of the toughest spending decisions this week, with several appealing options competing for the same salary. There is enough value to afford an expensive combination, but squeezing in another star can leave the remaining spots stretched thin. I want to look at those final selections together and ask what we realistically need from them. A lineup becomes much harder to trust when three cheap players all need their best game of the season.

Ownership Notes

Quarterback

• Paying $300 more than Purdy gets us Joe Burrow at less than half the ownership, with only a 0.6-point projection drop. Pair him with Higgins, and the $1,500 savings from Chase can strengthen another spot.
• Jared Goff gives us another way into the GB and DET game for $200 more than Purdy, with almost the same projection and a little less ownership. LaPorta with Watson coming back makes this a bet on both teams putting points on the board.
• Brock Purdy and Kittle get an ATL defense allowing 252 net passing yards per game. Kittle will be popular, but SF’s receiver injuries make this a spot to keep the stack simple and find lower ownership elsewhere.
• If Puka plays, Matthew Stafford offers roughly Young’s projection with less ownership for another $500. Pair him with Puka and consider Tucker coming back against LV, which ranks 24th in passing yards allowed per game.

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• Jordan Love’s projection makes this a spot where I am happy to eat the chalk. If the extra $1,000 fits, swapping Golden for Watson cuts ownership by more than half while giving up just 0.7 projected points.
• CAR’s passing game is where I want to attack TB, with Bryce Young and McMillan paired together and Irving coming back. McMillan costs $1,000 more than Coker, but he projects slightly better at less than half the ownership.
• C.J. Stroud gives us a little more projection than Purdy for $900 less at almost the same ownership, and NYG’s secondary is banged up. A Stroud and Nico stack bets on HOU’s passing TDs while Marks draws most of the attention. I will have all three in a few lineups. 
• Kyler Murray and Jefferson get an IND defense with the league’s lowest QB pressure rate and no Sauce Gardner. Murray projects slightly better than Young for $500 less and a little less ownership, and the stack works without forcing an IND return.

Running Back

• Jahmyr Gibbs works on the other side of a Love and Watson stack, betting on DET answering through its backfield. At $9,800, I want those three WR spots to still look good before locking him in.
• Paying another $900 for Bijan Robinson gives up just 0.7 projected points from McCaffrey while ownership drops from 29% to 17%. Brian Robinson Jr. being out opens the door for more work, and Bijan fits opposite Purdy and Kittle when we want both sides of that game.
• Derrick Henry costs $900 more than Kyren for 1.1 fewer projected points, but he comes at less than half the ownership. CIN is allowing 5.0 yards per carry, making Henry with Higgins coming back a bet on BAL running for scores and CIN answering through the air.
• Christian McCaffrey is just 0.8 projected points behind Gibbs for $2,200 less, making him chalk I am comfortable keeping. Those savings can pay for Watson over Golden while leaving money to improve another position.
• Chase Brown costs $1,000 more than Marks but projects slightly better at less than 5% ownership. His 24 catches through five games give him a place in Burrow stacks, though Perine’s involvement keeps this to a smaller portion of my builds. As a community, we may be overreacting to the Perine thing. Circle back on this next week. 
• Ashton Jeanty costs $400 more than Irving but gives up just 0.6 projected points at roughly a quarter of the ownership. At least three catches in every game keeps him in play opposite a Stafford stack, although the declining carry counts are still a concern.

Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

• Bucky Irving costs $500 more than Marks for 1.4 additional projected points and less ownership. Pair him with McMillan, betting on TB doing its scoring on the ground and CAR answering through the air.
• Braelon Allen has 41 carries over his last two games, making $5,900 reasonable chalk if Hall misses again. If Hall plays, that workload becomes much harder to trust, and Allen comes out of my core builds.
• Woody Marks makes sense at $5,600 with Montgomery out, especially when that salary opens up the rest of the lineup. Use him to help fund Burrow with Ja’Marr Chase, keeping the RB value while getting different through the passing stack.
• Ollie Gordon II is $100 cheaper than Marks and only 0.5 projected points behind him at 3% ownership. After 18 carries in his last game, there is a workload worth betting on, although limited receiving work leaves him more reliant on rushing yards and a TD.

Wide Receiver

• Puka Nacua’s 37 catches in four games make him chalk I am willing to keep if he is cleared for his normal workload. Pair him with Stafford and bring back Tucker, putting our lower-owned choices around the top WR projection.
• Paying $600 more than London for Ja’Marr Chase gets us a higher projection and lower ownership. Four TDs over his last four games give me a reason to spend on him in Burrow stacks, with Henry available on the other side.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown is $600 cheaper than Puka and only 1.4 projected points behind him, with lower ownership. Attach him to Goff and bring back Watson, betting on DET’s passing game keeping up with GB.
• Justin Jefferson projects slightly above London for $200 less and lower ownership. With Sauce Gardner out, Jefferson is the receiver I want attached to Murray when attacking IND.
• Tetairoa McMillan projects slightly ahead of Coker at 7% ownership compared to 18%, but costs another $1,000. Use him with Young or opposite Irving when betting on CAR doing its scoring through the air.

Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

• Christian Watson gives us a way to change a Love stack, losing just 0.7 projected points from Golden at less than half the ownership. Paying the extra $1,000 makes sense when it does not force a bigger downgrade somewhere else.
• Malik Nabers costs $100 less than Flowers and gives up just 0.4 projected points at less than a third of the ownership. McCarthy’s first start for NYG adds uncertainty, but Nabers works opposite Stroud when we are betting on the Giants keeping pace.
• Garrett Wilson matches Nico’s projection for $700 less and lower ownership against a MIA defense ranked 28th in passing yards allowed per play. When Nico is not part of a Stroud stack, that swap gives us money to improve another position.
• Tre Tucker is $100 cheaper than Addison with 1.1 more projected points and ownership under 2%. His three catches of at least 40 yards show why he can work opposite Stafford without needing a pile of targets.
• Konata Mumpfield costs $200 more than Hurst but projects slightly better at 2% ownership compared to 21%. Adams’ absence makes him a cheap Stafford attachment, but if Puka sits, refresh the projections and ownership before assuming he stays this unpopular.

Tight End

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• Sunday is National TE Day.
• Double TE appeared in 42.1% of top 100 lineups in Weeks 1 – 6 Milly Maker. Now we add in a holiday celebrating them? This build is always popular with the sim bros because simulators/optimizers love pricing/projection combination due to PP$ (points per dollar). Now, the casuals and handbuilders likely pump that combined pOwn up to boot.
• I pulled a @kyleborg and data dove. Based on the current ownership numbers, I project double TE to come in ~35 to ~45% this week. It represented 31.5% of all Milly Maker lineups this year. 
• So the question becomes, do we come in underweight on the two TE build because it might be more prevalent this week? That feels like overthinking. If the player combos work, roll it. I am not intentionally setting any parameters based on the acronym next to a dudes name. Treat Bowers like an underpriced WR1, and getting him under 5% is fuggin’s wheat (say it fast).
• But I am not a lemming. I like to zig when the field be zagging. I will not give up projections just to get away from double TE, but I will look to price-point pivot to RB/WR in the FLEX if it works.

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• Brock Bowers costs $2,000 more than Kittle for almost the same projection, making this a bet on his ceiling at 4.4% ownership. His two 100-yard games in four appearances make him a strong play opposite Stafford when the rest of the lineup can handle that salary.
• George Kittle is still the Purdy partner I want with Evans and Deebo ruled out. Watson or McMillan can provide the ownership difference at WR while we keep this stack intact. Kittle started TE University; he is going to get up for this game. 
• T.J. Hockenson costs $300 less than LaPorta and gives up just 0.8 projected points at under 2% ownership. Pair him with Murray against IND, leaving more money for the WRs we want.
• Tyler Higbee projects 3.4 points ahead of Otton for just $400 more and lower ownership. He fits Stafford builds, though we need fresh projections and ownership if Puka is ruled out.

DST

• The succubus of DFS.
• MIN costs $100 more than HOU and gives up 1.4 projected points, but ownership drops from 11% to 3.5%. That is a manageable trade in a chalky lineup, assuming this position can behave like an adult for three hours.
• Paying $200 more than TEN gets us CLE, another 1.3 projected points, and ownership dropping from 18% to 10%. 
• TB projects a full point above MIA for $100 less at slightly lower ownership. At $2,200, use them in builds without a CAR passing stack and spend the savings at a position that actually brings us joy.

Late Swap

Final Thoughts

1. Choose the contest before finalizing the lineup. How much uncertainty we accept should reflect how many entries we need to beat.
2. Give ourselves permission to leave a little salary unused. If our preferred combination finishes at $49,700, we can submit it without finding somewhere to spend the last $300.
3. Do not put too many eggs in one game’s basket. Across multiple entries, check how many lineups depend on the same game delivering. Your player ownership can be capped, but make sure you are not overexposed to a game in MMEs. 
4. Have a few realistic late-swap alternatives ready before lock. Once the early results come in, reassess what our remaining players need to deliver and whether those alternatives improve our chances.

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