NFL DFS Vegas Report for Week 5 (Fantasy Football)
NFL DFS tournaments are all about finding ceiling performance from players in our lineup. In order to maximize upside and correlation, we can use Vegas totals and game lines to help us identify game environments that may help produce these ceiling performances we’re looking for in GPPs. The goal of this article each week is to identify which games are most likely to provide the scoring environment we’re looking for in order to build game stacks in DFS. Similarly, this article will look at games that may either disappoint or are less likely to result in fantasy success.
On the surface, it sounds simple, but there’s more to this process than simply logging into a sportsbook and picking the games with the highest total. We need to be conscious of which games are likely to be most popular for DFS, which may be undervalued, and those that have more downside than the market perceives.
Note: Lines taken below from DraftKings Sportsbook are accurate at time of publishing.
Top 5 Team Implied Totals in Week 5
Fantasy points are most strongly correlated to team implied totals (how many points Vegas expects each team to score). As a result, it makes sense to look at players from the following teams, especially in cash games. This does not necessarily mean these are automatically the best games to stack in tournaments. More on that soon.
1. Dallas Cowboys (29.8) vs. New York Giants
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (29.0) vs. Miami Dolphins
3. Minnesota Vikings (28.3) vs. Detroit Lions
4. Arizona Cardinals (27.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers
5. Green Bay Packers (26.8) @ Cincinnati Bengals
Bottom 5 Team Implied Totals in Week 5
Given the strong correlation between implied totals and fantasy success, players on the following teams could consider being faded, especially if they are likely to carry elevated roster percentage in tournaments. In cash games, it likely makes the most sense to look elsewhere.
1. Houston Texans (15.0) vs. New England Patriots
2. Miami Dolphins (19.0) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3. Denver Broncos (19.3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers
4. Philadelphia Eagles (20.3) @ Carolina Panthers
5. Chicago Bears (20.5) @ Las Vegas Raiders
Popular Game Stacks
Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants, DAL -7, O/U: 52.5
Jason Garrett and his clapping hands return to Jerry World for a #RevengeGame with the Cowboys in Week 5, with this game featuring the highest total on the main slate. Early money is all over the over in this game, as the line originally opened at 49.5 points and has since been bet up a full three points.