NFL DFS Pace of Play & Stacks for Week 3 (Fantasy Football)
Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matter in a world where volume is king.
Each week I’ll highlight my favorite game environments factoring in their pace metrics, stacks to consider for tournaments, and five dart throws to shoot for the moon with.
Game Pace Score
A reminder of a simple metric I introduced a couple of years ago: Game Pace Score(GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.
- 5– A back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace-up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
- 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
- 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
- 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
- 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.
For Week 3, I’ve sorted by team implied totals while focusing on pass rate over expectation (PROE), no huddle rate from the 1st two weeks, and factor that for a final GPS score. As I mentioned in the previous article, no huddle rate had one of the strongest correlation coefficients from 2021 to 2022.
Make sure to check out the DFS & Betting Podcast where Betz and I break down the main slate and highlight some of our favorite plays of the week.
Let’s just get the big mama out of the way first. A 54 total is joooocy and with two of the most tantalizing teams of fantasy available for us, get ready to get hurt again. Minnesota is so far ahead of everyone else in neutral pass rate and Kevin O’Connell is willing to abandon the run game if things aren’t clicking.
NFL neutral pass rates pending MNF.
No Steelers yet because of sample size. pic.twitter.com/GRPRhf8aRD
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) September 18, 2023