Pace of Play: Matchups & Stacks for Week 8 (Fantasy Football)
On to Week 8!
Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matter in a world where volume is king.
Each week I’ll highlight my favorite game environments factoring in their pace metrics and stacks to consider for DFS tournaments.
Game Pace Score
A reminder of a simple metric I introduced a couple of years ago: Game Pace Score(GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.
- 5– A back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace-up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
- 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
- 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
- 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
- 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.
For Week 8, I’ve sorted by implied totals for all 28 teams playing (49ers, Giants, Saints, & Texans on bye) while focusing on neutral pace, pass rate over expectation (PROE), and EPA ranks and factor that for a final “GPS score”. For EPA, we will look at rank per-drop back and per-rush attempt for both offense and defense.
For those that would like a CSV version of the above chart, you can download Pace of Play- Week 8..
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills
You have to feel for these teams: two AFC powers with superhuman QBs who still have not cracked the code of the AFC en route to the Super Bowl. When these two teams played last year in Week 1, it was an absolute barn-burner with BUF wining 41-40. Allen had four total TDs, 41.8 DK points and the Bills ran 85(!) offensive plays despite not going to overtime.
The Bills look the part this season ranking #1 in yards per play, #1 in points per drive, #1 in explosive play rate and #1 in EPA per play as a offense. Bills games have averaged the 5th most combined plays per game and 8th in Fantasy Points’ “pace forced” metric. The Ravens have dealt with Lamar Jackson injuries and their play style does bring some potential variables in play. They rank 29th in neutral pace and 25th in combined plays per game.
Let’s start with Baltimore and what this offense can be with Lamar back. This team was 2nd in yards per play and 2nd in play success rate through the 1st month before his injury. The Bills have generated pressure on just 30% of opposing drop backs this season, the second lowest rate in the league. We know how the Bills have consistently acted as a “run funnel” ranking 29th in EPA per rush and 24th in explosive rush rate allowed. The King is in play on the road so monitor the roster percentages to see if you want to play him as a bring-back from Allen stacks or alongside a cheap BAL option like Ja’Kobi Lane. The Zay Flowers usage this season has been off-the-charts but there are some real differences in where he’s being targeted. Flowers has been targeted deep (20+ air yards) on 9.4% of his targets this season (the lowest rate of his career) by 5.8 percentage points, but has also seen a career-low 9.4% of his targets at or behind the line of scrimmage. Flowers has seen a career-high 60% of his targets come between zero and nine air yards, catching 25 of 32 for 307 yards, the most receiving yards among wide receivers on those throws. The Bills have allowed a 62% success rate on passes thrown between zero and nine air yards this season, tied for the fifth-highest in the NFL. He is still underpriced based on his role and the matchup this week.
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