Fantasy Football Expected Points & Opportunity: Week 8
Welcome to the Week 8 edition of the Expected Fantasy Points & Opportunity article!
In this article, we will use my Expected Fantasy Points model to identify the most valuable players at each position. While volume is crucial in fantasy football, we have to remember that not every opportunity is created equal and that a player’s fantasy value will vary significantly depending on their usage and offensive ecosystem. To account for those variables, Expected Fantasy Points will quantify each player’s projected fantasy value, based on the down, distance, depth, and location of their opportunities.
The key metrics used in this article are:
- Expected Fantasy Points (or xFP): The average (or expected) fantasy value of a player’s opportunities. This metric is synonymous with volume.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE): The difference between a player’s actual fantasy production and their Expected Fantasy Points. Heavily driven by efficiency, this value highlights the portion of a player’s fantasy production that is subject to weekly regression.
What do these metrics tell us?
- My model analyzes fantasy production by volume (xFP) and efficiency (FPOE).
- Players with higher usage values (xFP) are more likely to produce consistently, while players who rely too heavily on efficiency (FPOE) are much more volatile. In other words, we want to target players who rank highly in Expected Fantasy Points!
- xFP is by far the more stable and predictive metric. However, it is not a ranking system. It is only one part of the equation and should be used with other metrics for a holistic view.
- While I caution against investing in too many players who average a higher FPOE, I would NOT avoid them entirely. Players who depend on efficiency simply have a higher range of outcomes. In other words, these players can simultaneously raise the ceiling and lower the floor of your DFS lineups.
- xFP becomes more predictive as the season progresses. The more data points we have available, the more stable and reliable the metric becomes week over week.
If you are new to this series, check out my full series primer, where I break down my Expected Fantasy Points model in more detail. The full version of this article is available only in the DFS Pass.
If you have any additional questions, feel free to reach out on Bluesky @MarvinJE or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.
RUNNING BACKS
- Derrick Henry is coming off a couple of inefficient performances, averaging nearly 7.2 fantasy points BELOW expected against the Browns and Bengals. While those teams have excelled against the run, Henry faces a Bills defense this week that has struggled to contain opposing RBs. For context, they have allowed the highest RB success rate (48.6%) in their last five games, giving up RB1 performances to Ashton Jeanty, Kyren Williams, and Jahmyr Gibbs. With King Henry still ranked RB9 in Expected Fantasy Points (15.5), I expect him to find plenty of success in one of the most favorable matchups on this week’s slate, especially with Lamar Jackson set to return this week.
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