NFL Team Performance Trends Week 8 (Fantasy Football)
Welcome back to another team performance trends article! Here, we will be analyzing team and player trends going into Week 8.
Offensive Takeaways
Buffalo now leads the league at +0.20 EPA per play offensively, having overtaken San Francisco at +0.19 while the 49ers posted a flat +0.01 against Atlanta. Jacksonville (+0.16) and Detroit (+0.14) follow, with Dallas and Cincinnati tied at +0.12.
Cincinnati is the arrival worth noting. The Bengals put up +0.33 in Week 7, the best single-week offensive performance in football, and now hold the fourth-best net EPA mark in the league at +0.15. They were a middling offense a month ago.
Dallas belongs in the same conversation for a different reason. After two poor weeks, they rebounded with +0.32 in Week 7, second only to Cincinnati. The Cowboys have the fifth-best offense and the second-worst defense, a profile that has made their games the most productive fantasy environments in the league all season.
The bottom has not budged much. The Chargers remain at -0.23 EPA/play, with Tennessee (-0.13), Philadelphia (-0.12), Minnesota (-0.10), and Tampa Bay (-0.08) filling out the rest.
Defensive Takeaways
Minnesota is still the best defensive unit in football at -0.20 EPA/play, though the margin over Seattle (-0.14) has narrowed slightly. Tampa Bay has climbed to third at -0.11, with Kansas City (-0.08) and the Rams (-0.06) behind them.
The bottom five have turned over. Miami is now the worst defense in the league at +0.15 EPA/play, surpassing Dallas (+0.14) and Detroit (+0.14). Buffalo (+0.12) and Philadelphia (+0.11) complete the group.
Player Takeaways
The table below shows us the average points allowed per touch to each position, by each team in the league. League averages through seven weeks sit at 0.83 fantasy points per RB touch, 2.80 per WR touch, 2.53 per TE touch, and 0.49 per QB dropback. Let’s dive into the best value starts for Week 8.
Running Backs
The most interesting name is Josh Jacobs, who made his Green Bay debut in Week 7. He steps into a matchup against Carolina, which has allowed 1.01 per RB touch, the second-most in the league. MarShawn Lloyd handled only eight touches in their Week 7 game, so the backfield appears to have resolved itself in Jacob’s direction quickly. Look for a strong performance from the veteran back.
Braelon Allen rounds out the group against Las Vegas at 0.93 per touch, fifth-most allowed in the league. As Breece Hall enters Week 8 as questionable, Allen is a strong FLEX start for fantasy.
Wide Receivers
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Zay Flowers visits a Buffalo defense allowing 3.10 per WR touch, fifth-most, and has been excellent all year at 6.7 touches and around 20 points per game.
Garrett Wilson is another must-start as he faces off against Las Vegas at 3.31 per touch, second-most in the league.
The Rams have also been shaky against receivers this season, allowing 3.12 points per touch, making Ladd McConkey a strong start if he is healthy for Week 8.
Tight Ends
Dallas Goedert gets the position’s best matchup, with Washington allowing 3.49 points per TE touch, high above the 2.53 league average. Goedert has been fully involved since returning, at 4.4 touches and 11.4 points per game across five appearances.
T.J. Hockenson faces Detroit at 3.15 per touch, second-most, on a similar workload of 4.5 touches and 10.5 points per game.
Dalton Kincaid draws Baltimore at 2.98, third-most, and has quietly been Buffalo’s most productive option at the position with 3.8 touches and 10.1 points per game.
Quarterbacks
Drake Maye has been the best QB in football over the last month, and he faces Miami, which has allowed 0.62 points per dropback, third-most in the league. At 36.0 dropbacks and 22.4 points per game, he is the top play at the position.
Dak Prescott has a strong matchup on paper, with Arizona at 0.75 per dropback representing a 53 percent edge over league average, and he brings 41.3 dropbacks and 19.2 points per game into it.
Sam Darnold faces Chicago at 0.66 per dropback, second-most, and Geno Smith gets Las Vegas at 0.62, fourth-most. Neither has been efficient this season, at 14.8 and 15.6 points per game, respectively, so both are streaming options rather than plays to prioritize.
See the team EPA trends below for offense and defense.
See how the Week 8 matchups look below on the team EPA plot.
Good luck in Week 8!