FanDuel Picks: Week 11 Edition
Welcome to the weekly “one stop shop” for all things DFS. I tout my favorite plays of the week after breaking down all of the games, looking at matchups, and considering all relevant weekly and season-long injuries/suspensions. As a guide, you can think of the “Top Plays” sections as cash game recommendations and the “Under The Radar” sections as GPP tournament recommendations. Confused on the difference? Check out a recent DFS Strategy article I wrote. However, I refuse to specifically title the sections in that way because I believe it boxes in the picks. Many players can and do fall under both categories in any given week. I delve more into that in the article linked above as well. When reading, keep that in mind. Now let’s get to it, starting with my top Bonanza candidates.
Domination Bonanza Candidates: Pittsburgh Steelers blowing out the Cleveland Browns and New England Patriots blowing out the San Francisco 49ers
Back and Forth Bonanza Candidates: Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts and Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins
Top QB Plays Of The Week
Ben Roethlisberger vs CLE, $8,400
But but…what about his home/road splits!? I hear you but I just don’t care. The matchup is too good. Ben Roethlisberger gets a Browns defense giving up the 6th most passing yards per game and the most pass TDs (25). Plus, the Steelers can’t take this game lightly or mail it in early. They’re 4-5 and currently not in the playoffs. After last week’s crazy loss to the Cowboys, I expect Pittsburgh to play angry on Sunday. This game has domination bonanza written all over it.
Andrew Luck vs TEN, $8,100
Andrew Luck has had a very solid season. He is currently 5th in passing yards, 8th in passing yards per game, and tied for 9th in TD passes (17). He’s at home this week against a Titans defense giving up the 9th most passing yards and that is tied for the 11th most pass TDs (16) given up. Plus back in Week 7, Luck put up 353 yards and 3 TDs on this defense while on the road and without his #2 WR Donte Moncrief.
Aaron Rodgers vs WAS, $9,100
Guys, Aaron Rodgers is not the problem. With a bad defense and a non-existent running game, Rodgers has been forced to put this team on his back and he’s done just that. He’s been playing out of his mind over the past four games, with 23.74 being his lowest FanDuel score in that timespan. Although Washington’s defense has played pretty well against the pass this season, Rodgers seems to be matchup proof right now. Expect another big game on Sunday Night Football.
Shattering The MainSTREAM: Under The Radar QB Play
Colin Kaepernick vs NE, $7,000
Colin Kaepernick is averaging 20.1 fantasy points per game on FanDuel in his four starts this season. That’s the 6th best average of any QB yet he’s priced as the QB 17. Helping his cause is his rushing production. Kaepernick has ran for at least 55 yards in three of his four starts. If you’re looking to save money at the QB position this week, take advantage of Kaepernick’s egregiously low salary. He should be about $1,000 more expensive. He’s at home this week against a Patriots defense giving up the 14th most passing yards per game. Plus although game flow many times can be hard to predict, it seems like a pretty safe bet Kaepernick will be playing catch-up in this one. In Chip Kelly’s fast-paced offense, that could mean many fantasy points via the air and the ground.
Top RB Plays Of The Week
Le’Veon Bell vs CLE, $9,100
Forget how good of a runner Le’Veon Bell is for just one second. The dude has seen 32 targets over his past three games. Bell is a dual-threat stud. He finally got off the schneid last week in a big way scoring his first two TDs of the season. I expect those TDs to keep coming this week against a Browns defense giving up the 2nd most rushing yards per game and that is tied for the 4th most rush TDs (12) given up.
LeGarrette Blount vs SF, $7,300
LeGarrette Blount has been a monster all season. He’s 9th in rushing yards and rushing yards per game. He leads the league in rush TDs with 12 while no other player has more than 9. He has a dream matchup this week against a 49ers defense giving up the most rushing yards per game and that is tied for the 2nd most rush TDs (13) given up.
LeSean McCoy vs CIN, $7,500
This is a very interesting spot for LeSean McCoy. He’s only played in two games since Week 7. That’s the game he left due to injury, then missed a week, then faced Seattle on Monday Night Football, and then the Bills had their bye. With all of that time off, it can be easy to forget how much of a monster McCoy was earlier in the season. In fact, he ranks 5th at the RB position in fantasy points per game on FanDuel with 16.9 despite only putting up 1.1 in Week 7 before leaving due to injury. This week, he gets a Bengals defense giving up the 9th most rushing yards per game that just allowed Rashad Jennings to have his best game of the season last week.
Shattering The MainSTREAM: Under The Radar RB Play
C.J. Prosise vs PHI, $4,900
Thomas Rawls will reportedly be eased back into action and C.J. Prosise is expected to remain the starter for the immediate future. That makes sense to me since Rawls hasn’t played since Week 2. Prosise looked great last week posting 153 total yards but his 7 catches is what really caught my eye. The Seahawks repeatedly motioned Prosise out of the backfield and got him matched up on Linebackers that had no chance of covering him. He’s a dynamic playmaker and should see the majority of the touches in this one at a severely reduced salary.
Top WR Plays Of The Week
Julian Edelman vs SF, $6,100
It looks like Rob Gronkowski is going to miss this game due to injury. If that does happen, Julian Edelman looks to be in a place where he could truly capitalize. Edelman has seen at least 7 targets in every game Brady has started this year. In fact, he’s led the Patriots in target share in four of Brady’s five starts. Here are his target share percentages starting with Week 5 (Brady’s first game back from suspension): 24.4%, 20%, 38.5%, 24.2%, and 28.1%. Plus, the matchup is great as the 49ers are tied for the 4th most pass TDs (19) given up.
Davante Adams vs WAS, $7,600
Per Mike Clay of ESPN, Josh Norman is expected to shadow Jordy Nelson this week. Aaron Rodgers has shown us time and time again that he will identify a tough matchup and literally just avoid it for most of the game. We saw this happen with Nelson back in Week 7. Rodgers went away from Nelson who was being shadowed by Tracy Porter in that game. Davante Adams was a direct beneficiary as he put up 31.7 fantasy points on FanDuel, by far his best outing of the season. In a game that has the potential to become a Back and Forth Bonanza, Adams has an enticingly high ceiling especially considering the Packers lack of a running game right now.
Donte Moncrief vs TEN, $6,500
Donte Moncrief has seen 15 targets in his two games since returning from injury. He’s caught a TD in both of those games. In fact, since the start of 2015, Moncrief has caught 8 TDs in 11 games playing with Andrew Luck and that includes Week 3 of this season when Moncrief left the game early due to injury. He’s at home this week and gets a Titans defense giving up the 9th most passing yards and that is tied for the 11th most pass TDs (16) given up.
Shattering The MainSTREAM: Under The Radar WR Plays
Eli Rogers vs CLE, $5,500
Look, everyone knows Antonio Brown is the play. It doesn’t do me much good to write about it. He’s in play every single week. However, if you’re looking for a less expensive piece of the Steelers offense, Eli Rogers is $3,400 cheaper than Brown this week. After missing some time due to injury, Rogers is back healthy and has gone over 100 yards or scored a TD in each of his last two games. He’s also seen 15 targets over that timespan. The Steelers are a candidate for a Domination Bonanza this week and I think Rogers will benefit from that as well as facing a Browns defense giving up the 6th most passing yards per game and the most pass TDs (25).
Rishard Matthews vs IND, $6,000
After a slow start to the season, Rishard Matthews has really come on strong lately. He has 6 TDs over his last six games and has scored in three straight. He’s averaging 15.6 fantasy points per game on FanDuel over his last three games as well. This week, he gets a Colts defense giving up the 2nd most passing yards per game and that is tied for the 8th most pass TDs (17) given up.
Top TE Plays Of The Week
Martellus Bennett vs SF, $5,200
I fully expect Rob Gronkowski to miss this game. If he does, Martellus Bennett is the clear top option at TE this week, especially considering his price. Bennett has already shown he has 3 TD upside playing with Tom Brady and that was in a game where Gronkowski went over 100 yards. The Patriots offense involves the TEs heavily in their game plan and Bennett would be a pretty good bet to score a TD against a 49ers defense that is tied for the 4th most pass TDs (19) given up.
Delanie Walker vs IND, $6,400
When healthy this year, Delanie Walker has been a beast. This week, he gets a Colts defense giving up the 2nd most passing yards per game and that is tied for the 8th most pass TDs (17) given up. Plus back in Week 7, Walker put up 7 for 84 and a TD on them.
Eric Ebron vs JAC, $5,400
Eric Ebron has seen 18 targets over his last two games since returning from injury. He’s turned those into FanDuel scores of 11.4 and 12.7 without finding the end zone. It’s clear Ebron is a very important part of the Lions offense and he makes for an intriguing contrarian play in GPP tournaments this week at home against a Jaguars defense that has actually been pretty stout against the pass.
Shattering The MainSTREAM: Under The Radar TE Play
Will Tye vs CHI, $4,500
It appears the Larry Donnell experiment is over. He hasn’t seen a target in either of the past two games. That makes Will Tye the starting TE for the Giants. While Tye is still sharing time with Jerell Adams at the position, he has still seen 15 targets over the past two games. In comparison, Jimmy Graham has only seen 12 targets in that same timespan. Tye had his best game of the season last week catching 5 passes for 53 yards which could be a sign he is in a for a big second half of the season just like last year when Donnell was lost for the season due to injury.
Top Kicker Plays Of The Week
Adam Vinatieri vs TEN, $5,000
Adam Vinatieri is perfect on the season and has made 5 field goals from 50+ yards out. There should be plenty of opportunities for him in this potential Back and Forth Bonanza. Plus, as the weather starts to get colder, he gets the added benefit of playing at home in a dome in this one.
Dustin Hopkins vs GB, $4,800
Dustin Hopkins is tied for 3rd in the league in made field goals with 22. He’s been getting it done all year and should benefit from playing in a potential Back and Forth Bonanza at home.
Matt Prater vs JAC, $4,600
Matt Prater has made all 4 of his field goals from 50+ yards out this year and should benefit from playing at home in a dome in this one. I expect Matthew Stafford to put up points on the Jaguars defense.
Top Defense Plays Of The Week
New York Giants vs CHI, $4,700
Jay Cutler reminded us last week just how bad he is at football, Alshon Jeffery won’t play in this game because of a suspension, and Guard Kyle Long will also miss due to injury. The Bears already bad offense just got worse and I expect the Giants defense to take advantage in this one at home.
Miami Dolphins vs LA, $4,800
The Miami Dolphins are tied for 10th in sacks and tied for 7th in interceptions this season. Jared Goff will be making his first NFL start this week and it couldn’t be coming at a worse time. Over their last two games, the Dolphins have 6 sacks and 6 interceptions. Plus, they also have the added bonus of dynamic special teams play.
Kansas City Chiefs vs TB, $5,000
The Kansas City Chiefs defense has scored double-digit points on FanDuel in each of their past five games. This week, they’re at home and get to face a turnover-prone Jameis Winston who is tied for the 5th most interceptions thrown in the league this year.