Week 1 Team Performance Trends (Fantasy Football)
In this article, I will highlight team performance trends from the 2025 season and offer insights into the fantasy football landscape for Week 1 of 2026. While last season’s data is naturally less predictive than what we will build up in-season, it serves as the best baseline we have heading into the opener. For the analysis that follows, please reference the graphics throughout the article.
Let’s jump into things!
Offensive Insights
Los Angeles and Buffalo lead on offense – with a wide middle pack:
The Rams (+0.14) and Bills (+0.14) finished as the top two offenses in the NFL last season by EPA/play, each putting up efficient, explosive numbers all year long. Buffalo travels to Houston in Week 1 – a genuinely tough spot against the league’s best defense (-0.13 EPA/play in 2025). Josh Allen is always startable, but temper expectations slightly. The Rams play the 49ers in East Melbourne on Thursday night (Netflix), a marquee international matchup between two top-10 offenses. Both SF (+0.09) and LA (+0.14) have the firepower to put up big numbers – your Rams and 49ers skill players are strong plays.
Just behind them sits a wide tier of solid offenses – Green Bay (+0.11), Dallas (+0.10), San Francisco (+0.09), Detroit (+0.08), and Chicago (+0.08) all finished in the top eight. Their Week 1 matchups vary widely in terms of difficulty, and those matchups go a long way in determining their immediate fantasy value.
Green Bay and Dallas have firepower – with defensive concerns:
The Packers (+0.11 EPA/play) travel to Minnesota in Week 1, while Dallas heads to New York to face the Giants in Sunday Night Football. Dallas had the worst defense in the NFL in 2025 (+0.17 EPA/play allowed) but faces a NYG team that was equally poor offensively (+0.01). Green Bay gets the Vikings, whose defense finished fourth in the league at -0.10 EPA/play. Jordan Love‘s receiving weapons are the strongest starts of these matchups.
Chicago is more interesting than you think:
The Bears finished eighth in offensive EPA/play (+0.08) last season, which speaks to Caleb Williams developing ahead of schedule. They open at Carolina, who had the 26th-ranked offense in 2025 (-0.04 EPA/play) and a poor defense (+0.07). This is a favorable matchup for Chicago – your Bears skill players are in a better spot than their name recognition suggests heading into Week 1.
Avoid the bottom of the board:
Cleveland (-0.19), Las Vegas (-0.22), Tennessee (-0.16), and the Jets (-0.13) were the four worst offenses in the league last season by EPA/play. CLE heads to Jacksonville, LV hosts Miami, NYJ travels to Tennessee, and TEN hosts the Jets. None of these games has strong fantasy upside on either side. Fade their skill players until we see real data.
The figure below shows the full offensive EPA/play rankings for all 32 teams.
Defensive Insights
Houston is the Week 1 defense to own:
The Texans were the best defense in the NFL last season at -0.13 EPA/play, and they host Buffalo in Week 1. Even with Josh Allen under center, this is the strongest streaming defense option of the week. Houston also allowed just 24.3 WR pts/G last season – the best mark in the league. Bills receivers take a slight hit in this spot.
The SNF spotlight: Dallas at the Giants:
Dallas had the worst defense in the NFL in 2025 (+0.17 EPA/play). New York’s offense was barely above water (+0.01). This game features two poor defenses meeting two offenses of wildly different quality – CeeDee Lamb against a Giants secondary that allowed 38.3 WR pts/G is among the best individual matchups of the week.
Cleveland and Minnesota are sneaky-good defenses:
Both teams finished at -0.10 EPA/play on defense, tied for fourth-best in the league. Cleveland travels to Jacksonville, where the Jaguars were also elite on defense (-0.11 EPA/play) – expect a low-scoring, grind-it-out AFC game. Fade both offenses. Minnesota hosts Green Bay: the Vikings’ defense is legitimate, so Green Bay’s skill players face more resistance than the matchup name suggests.
Jacksonville is an elite Week 1 defense in a tough game:
The Jaguars were the third-best defense in the NFL last season at -0.11 EPA/play. They host Cleveland, who was the worst offense in the league. This game has low fantasy output written all over it. If you can stream Jacksonville’s defense, do it – they are facing a Cleveland offense that averaged -0.19 EPA/play in 2025.
Washington at Philadelphia – defense wins this one:
Philadelphia’s defense finished eighth in the league at -0.08 EPA/play. Washington comes to town with a +0.14 defensive EPA/play (30th in the league) and a mediocre offense (+0.01 EPA/play). Jalen Hurts and the Eagles’ passing game face the Commanders’ poor defense, making Eagles skill players solid Week 1 starts. Washington’s weapons are more of a fade.
Wide-open games to target:
The TB at CIN matchup is interesting: Cincinnati’s offense was slightly below average (-0.01), but their defense allowed 36.5 WR pts/G and 13.4 TE pts/G in 2025, making Buccaneers receivers a potential sneaky play. The ATL at PIT game sets up Pittsburgh’s run game well – the Falcons’ defense was neutral (0.00 EPA/play) but allowed 17.2 RB pts/G.
The figure below shows all 32 teams ranked by defensive EPA/play.
The trend line charts below show how teams progressed offensively and defensively throughout last season.
Defensive Points Allowed by Position
The chart below shows how many fantasy points each defense allowed per game to RBs, WRs, and TEs last season.
A few matchups jump out for Week 1:
RBs:
- New York Jets allowed the most fantasy points to RBs (30.4 pts/G) and travel to Tennessee. Tony Pollard, as the Titans’ RB1, could be ready for a prime carry-heavy game script.
- Arizona Cardinals (28.4 pts/G to RBs) host the Chargers. Watch for LA’s backfield to get involved in a big way and Omarion Hampton to have success.
- Houston Texans (16.6 pts/G to RBs) are the toughest RB matchup hosting Buffalo. James Cook faces a stiff test in Week 1.
WRs:
- Indianapolis Colts (37.4 WR pts/G allowed) host the Baltimore Ravens. Their receivers, particularly Zay Flowers, are strong Week 1 starts.
- Detroit Lions (37.1 WR pts/G allowed) host New Orleans. The Saints receivers have a soft landing spot to open the season.
- Houston Texans allowed just 24.3 WR pts/G – the league’s best. Bills receivers are a fade in this specific matchup despite the roster talent.
TEs:
- Washington Commanders (15.2 TE pts/G) travel to Philadelphia. Dallas Goedert is among the best plays of the week.
- New York Jets (15.8 pts/G to TEs) head to Tennessee. Target Titans TE Gunnar Helm for streaming.
- Denver Broncos (9.4 TE pts/G) host Kansas City on Monday Night Football. Travis Kelce faces the toughest TE matchup of the week.
That’s all for this week! Check back next week for updated in-season team performance trends using real 2026 data.