NFL Team Performance Trends: Week 9 (Fantasy Football)
Week 8 is complete, and it is time for another look at team performance trends heading into Week 9. In this article, we will take a look at the top and bottom offenses and defenses in terms of expected points added (EPA), and then take a closer look at some players to watch out for in terms of strong matchup potential for the coming week.
Offensive Takeaways
San Francisco holds the top spot at +0.19 EPA per play, with Buffalo at +0.18 and Jacksonville at +0.16 close behind. Cincinnati (+0.12), Detroit (+0.12), and Kansas City (+0.11) make up the next group. The margin between first and sixth is small, which is narrow enough that any of those six could lead the league by December.
The bottom of the table is where the real story sits. The Chargers have fallen to -0.26 EPA/play, and the gap between them and the next worst offense is massive. The only valuable start in LA is Ladd McConkey, and that is if he can stay healthy. Philadelphia (-0.13), Indianapolis (-0.12), Atlanta (-0.10), and Minnesota (-0.10) fill out the bottom five. With Minnesota performing so poorly, they could be a buy-low candidate, especially with the talent on their offensive side of the ball.
Defensive Takeaways
Minnesota remains the best defense in football at -0.18, but Tampa Bay has closed considerably at -0.16 and is trending harder in the right direction, if you take a look at their trend chart at the bottom of the article. The Rams (-0.11), Jacksonville (-0.10), and Seattle (-0.10) complete the top five.
Miami is the worst defense in the league at +0.15, with Dallas (+0.13), Detroit (+0.11), Philadelphia (+0.10), and New Orleans (+0.09) behind them. Look to exploit these defenses in fantasy in Week 9 if you can.
Player Takeaways
The per-touch table sharpens our picture of how defenses perform against each position. It shows each NFL defense’s average points per touch allowed across all skill positions. League averages sit at 0.83 fantasy points allowed per RB touch, 2.80 per WR touch, 2.55 per TE touch, and 0.50 per QB dropback.
RBs:
Javonte Williams draws Indianapolis, who has allowed 0.97 points per RB touch, third-most in the league. He is also trending up independent of matchup, having handled 25 and 26 touches in the last two weeks against a season average of 19.2.
Quinshon Judkins visits New Orleans and the league’s softest run defense at 1.05 per touch, with 17.4 touches per game behind him.
Chase Brown rounds out the group against Atlanta at 0.93 per touch, sixth-most in the NFL – look for a Chase Brown masterclass, and for him to break out of the slight rut he has been in.
WRs:
Keenan Allen and Josh Downs face Dallas at 3.02 per touch, sixth-most, on 5.1 touches per game. Despite the Colts’ struggles, they are streamable options for Week 9.
Treylon Burks is another deep streaming option for larger leagues, as he faces the Rams, whose pass defense has been limited this season. They are allowing three points per touch, giving Burks some potential in Week 9 – behind, of course, Stefon Diggs.
IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
TEs:
Tyler Higbee has the position’s best matchup, with Washington allowing 3.29 points per TE touch, 29 percent above the 2.55 average. He sees 3.9 touches per game, which is concerning, but with Parkinson listed as questionable for the week, Higbee could see a larger role in the passing game than usual.
Greg Dulcich faces Detroit at 3.20 points allowed per touch, second-most, on 3.7 touches; Dulcich’s targets have grown in the past three games for Miami, seeing at least five targets a game. Look for a strong streamable performance in Week 9.
Brenton Strange draws Baltimore at 3.09, third-most, though his two touches in Week 8 are a caution worth noting. If Strange can get back to his high target volume the three weeks preceding Week 7, he will have a strong outing in this one.
QBs:
Drew Lock faces Arizona and the largest positional edge on the board, with the Cardinals allowing 0.72 per dropback against a 0.50 average. The backup will be a top streaming option in Week 9.
If you have Brock Purdy, he is a must-start in Week 9. He returns from the bye against Las Vegas, who is allowing 0.62 points per dropback, the fourth-most in the league.
Similarly, Dak Prescott faces Indianapolis at 0.59 points allowed per dropback, sixth-most in the NFL, carrying the heaviest volume in the group at 40.6 dropbacks. Look for a high-scoring Cowboys offense in Week 9.
The chart below shows each team’s EPA trends both offensively and defensively, by week.
The following chart shows each Week 9 matchup, with teams plotted by offensive and defensive EPA.
Good luck in Week 9!