Pace of Play: Matchups & Stacks for Week 9 (Fantasy Football)
On to Week 9!
Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matter in a world where volume is king.
Each week I’ll highlight my favorite game environments factoring in their pace metrics and stacks to consider for DFS tournaments.
Game Pace Score
A reminder of a simple metric I introduced a couple of years ago: Game Pace Score(GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.
- 5– A back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace-up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
- 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
- 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
- 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
- 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.
For Week 9, I’ve sorted by implied totals for all 30 teams playing (Steelers & Titans on bye) while focusing on neutral pace, pass rate over expectation (PROE), and EPA ranks and factor that for a final “GPS score”. For EPA, we will look at rank per-drop back and per-rush attempt for both offense and defense
For those that would like a CSV version of the above chart, you can download Pace of Play- Week 9.
Dallas Cowboys @ Indianapolis Colts
This is the most obvious matchup of the week as both defenses are what the kids refer to as “booty crust”. You can run all over the Colts who rank dead last in EPA per rush, 29th in yards per carry allowed, and 30th in yards before contact allowed. The Cowboys are an every-week punching bag sitting 31st in points per drive allowed, and dead last in EPA per play. The pace environment is solid with Dallas games sporting the 5th most combined plays per game and the Colts at 8th in plays per game.
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