Targets Per Route Run Report: Week 4 (Fantasy Football)

Did you survive? This week felt like the first real gut punch to the players we watch here on the Targets Per Route Run Report. With injuries to Justin Jefferson, Mike Evans, and De’Von Achane, and injuries to the QBs for Chris Godwin, Emeka Egbuka, and Isaiah Likely, some top TPRR players are taking a hit. 

Not all is terrible, though. With the completion of Week 3, we officially have nine players who are on fire! Before we dive into those numbers, we need to take a look at the TPRR landscape. 

For the uninitiated:

Targets ÷ Routes Run = Targets Per Route Run (TPRR)

As a very loose rule of thumb, this is how you break down TPRR:

• 30%+ is truly elite TPRR
• 25-30% is excellent
• 20-25% is a good, fantasy-relevant range
• Below 20% is bench or cut territory

I am qualifying each position by total routes run. This will help to filter out players who have an extreme TPRR percentage but only ran a few routes. This will give us actionable fantasy data.

• WR: 15 routes x games played
• TE: 10 routes x games played
• RB: 5 routes x games played

Once we filter for routes run, the final filter is positional median through Week 3. They are as follows:

• WR: 19.8% TPRR (+.6 from last week)
• TE: 17.8% TPRR (+.8 from last week)
• RB: 18.9% TPRR (-1.1 from last week)
• OVR: 19% TPRR (-.1 from last week)

Now for the part I have been looking forward to since I started this in the preseason, 

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He’s ON FIRE!

This list is simply players who have exceeded the median by more than 5% for 3 weeks straight. Two players, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and George Kittle, have been 10+% above their positional median for three straight weeks! 

Three straight weeks start moving us from merely an interesting start toward telling us who this player might actually be in their offense. Things can still change quickly, but if a player has an on-fire TPRR and it has not translated to fantasy points, then I tend to explore options to acquire them. 

Stefon Diggs and Mark Andrews both stand out to me on this list. You probably did not draft Diggs or Andrews expecting to need them every week, but as you navigate byes and injuries, both are earning targets when they run routes. Look, I get it. I have heard on the same podcast as many of you that Mandrews is bad. But he is getting the targets when he runs the routes. You could stream worse. 

Also, Jeremiyah Love is good at football. That is all the analysis I have for you. He is indeed on fire. 

He’s Heating Up!

In many ways, this list is more important to me in Week 4. The first week often gets ingrained in our hearts and our fantasy emotions. My therapist would say that we have to speak the truth into our emotions, and the same is true here. These are the guys I tend to explore acquiring before the market catches up. 

Josh Downs, Jaylen Waddle, Kenneth Gainwell, Ja’Marr Chase, and Terry McLaurin all let our beloved TPRR down in Week 1. We expected Chase and Waddle to bounce back due to them being the presumed WR1s on their team, but the other guys had some negative narratives flying around. Weeks 2 and 3 have told different stories, as each of these guys has logged at least one week of 10+% TPRR above their positional median in the last two weeks. 

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I am keeping my eyes on a couple pretty un-sexy names here, Kenny Gainwell and Carnell Tate. For Kenny G, he saw a 38.5% TPRR in Week 3, while Bucky Irving also got nicked up (and so did Baker Mayfield). While Bucky is not on this week’s injury report, the Buccaneers may still want to preserve him and could check down more with a backup QB. 

Look, I know there are a lot of negative things to be said about the Titans, Cam Ward, and therefore Carnell Tate. But last week was some pretty bad weather, and Tate saw a 27.3% TPRR. He has improved every week. It may click sooner rather than later, and he might become the flex WR you are looking for down the stretch. Keep an eye on it. 

He’s Cooling Off!

I am scratching my head with some of these names. Jameson Williams came in as a writer my guy (I agreed!), had all the camp hype, he has run 106 routes, and his TPRR has been an abysmal 10% and 13.8% the last two weeks. To make matters worse, the Lions offense is humming to the tune of 31 points a game. They do not need Jameson to turn it around. That concerns me. 

After a hot Week 1, Pat Bryant is cuttable. I have a hard time seeing how his path forward improves without an injury ahead of him on the depth chart. In the words of the illustrious Michael Scott, “Snip, snap, snip, snap!”

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He’s ICE COLD!

I have been told that being cold can sometimes be a good thing. Let me be clear: this is not a good thing. The only thing keeping Marvin Harrison Jr. and Chris Godwin Jr. on your roster right now is draft capital, and even that patience has an expiration date. If this continues for another week, I am comfortable letting go. They have both run 100+ routes without earning targets at anything close to a useful rate. It is bad. 

The end is near.  Soon, they cannot hurt you anymore. 

Feast on some Week 3 TPRR charts, my friends.

All data comes from NFL Next Gen Stats. 

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