Targets Per Route Run Report: Week 17 (Fantasy Football)

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Refresher: Targets Per Route Run (TPRR) remains one of the most insightful metrics for understanding player opportunity. It tells us who’s running routes and who’s earning looks when they’re out there. For wide receivers, a target is the most important underlying metric to predict consistent fantasy output, so a player’s ability to earn these targets at a high rate is key. 20% TPRR is a good minimum threshold we want to see, and the best of the best consistently see TPRRs north of 30%.

Week 16 Leaders

The trend we saw in Week 16 highlights the strengths and weaknesses of Targets Per Route Run. Marquise Brown, Puka Nacua, and Dontayvion Wicks all grace the top 10 for the week, but none of them did much for the semifinals. Hollywood Brown only saw a 27% snap share, while Nacua and Wicks suffered from fewer route opportunities. With Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy rounding into form and the Chiefs on the verge of clinching the number-one seed, it may be too little too late for Brown to make much of an impact. But it’s a positive sign to see him involved on limited snaps.

Dontayvion Wicks has had no problem getting open when on the field, but the whole “catching targets” thing has been a disappointment. If Christian Watson misses the matchup with Minnesota, Wicks is worth a look in the flex.

Michael Penix Jr. is in, and Kirk Cousins is out. Drake London (35% TPRR) left the game with a hamstring injury but was the top target for the number-eight pick while on the field. London should be good to go against the Commanders.

Week 16 targets per route run leaders stat table

Notes

Keenan Allen has been on a tear, finishing outside the top 15 wide receivers only once since Week 12. Allen and DJ Moore are running enough routes and seeing enough targets from Caleb Williams to be worth starting when Chicago takes on  Seattle in Week 17.

No Hurts? No problem. No Pickett? We may have a problem. AJ Brown didn’t miss a beat when Kenny Pickett subbed in for Jalen Hurts after the latter suffered a concussion in Week 16. Pickett did exactly what he should and looked for his number-one receiver to the tune of 15 targets on 37 routes. The Eagles have a shot at the top seed in the NFC North if the Vikings and Lions stumble in the final two weeks of the season, but there’s a very good chance Hurts misses Week 17. As of this writing, it looks like Kenny Pickett will suit up against Dallas, so A.J. Brown should be fine to start. If Pickett and Hurts are both ruled out, however, fantasy managers should probably look elsewhere.

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The Full List – Season TPRR Rankings

Targets Per Route Run – Through Week 16 (Min 225 routes)
Rank Player Team Routes Targets TPRR + /-
1 Puka Nacua LA 247 90 36.4% 0
2 Malik Nabers NYG 510 149 29.2% 1
3 Cooper Kupp LA 328 94 28.7% -1
4 Josh Downs IND 301 86 28.6% 0
5 Nico Collins HST 313 88 28.1% 0
6 CeeDee Lamb DAL 526 146 27.8% 0
7 Diontae Johnson BLT 231 62 26.8% 0
8 A.J. Brown PHI 341 90 26.4% 7
9 Dontayvion Wicks GB 244 63 25.8% 1
10 Davante Adams NYJ 455 116 25.5% 1
11 Drake London ATL 471 120 25.5% 1
12 Khalil Shakir BUF 362 91 25.1% -4
13 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET 487 122 25.1% -1
14 Justin Jefferson MIN 523 131 25.0% 2
15 Chris Godwin TB 244 60 24.6% 2
16 George Pickens PIT 358 87 24.3% 3
17 Jauan Jennings SF 375 91 24.3% -8
18 Tee Higgins CIN 363 88 24.2% 6
19 Mike Evans TB 348 84 24.1% -5
20 Garrett Wilson NYJ 581 139 23.9% -2
21 Ja’Marr Chase CIN 601 143 23.8% -1
22 Zay Flowers BLT 450 106 23.6% 4
23 Brian Thomas Jr. JAX 461 108 23.4% 4
24 Stefon Diggs HST 270 62 23.0% 1
25 Ladd McConkey LAC 413 93 22.5% -2
26 Keenan Allen CHI 476 107 22.5% 5
27 Courtland Sutton DEN 520 116 22.3% -5
28 Tyreek Hill MIA 492 109 22.2% 2
29 DeAndre Hopkins KC 338 74 21.9% -1
30 Amari Cooper BUF 364 79 21.7% -1
31 Michael Pittman Jr. IND 401 87 21.7% 1
32 Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA 570 123 21.6% 6
33 Wan’Dale Robinson NYG 533 115 21.6% 6
34 Marvin Harrison Jr. ARZ 462 98 21.2% 2
35 Adam Thielen CAR 235 49 20.9% #N/A
36 Calvin Ridley TEN 490 102 20.8% -1
37 Jakobi Meyers LV 515 107 20.8% -4
38 DeVonta Smith PHI 376 78 20.7% 3
39 Olamide Zaccheaus WAS 232 48 20.7% #N/A
40 Deebo Samuel SF 383 79 20.6% 5
41 Terry McLaurin WAS 476 98 20.6% -4
42 D.K. Metcalf SEA 496 100 20.2% 1
43 Quentin Johnston LAC 330 66 20.0% -1
44 Jayden Reed GB 346 69 19.9% 0
45 DJ Moore CHI 598 119 19.9% 1
46 Darnell Mooney ATL 491 96 19.6% 4
47 Demario Douglas NE 384 75 19.5% 1
48 Noah Brown WAS 278 54 19.4% 1
49 Troy Franklin DEN 234 45 19.2% -2
50 Jordan Addison MIN 420 79 18.8% 2
51 Christian Watson GB 266 50 18.8% 0
52 Romeo Doubs GB 329 60 18.2% 1
53 Tank Dell HST 447 81 18.1% 5
54 Xavier Legette CAR 374 67 17.9% 2
55 Devaughn Vele DEN 270 48 17.8% -1
56 Xavier Worthy KC 480 85 17.7% 6
57 Jameson Williams DET 413 73 17.7% 0
58 Jerry Jeudy CLV 630 111 17.6% -3
59 Elijah Moore CLV 527 89 16.9% 0
60 Jaylen Waddle MIA 440 74 16.8% 1
61 Gabe Davis JAX 252 42 16.7% 2
62 David Moore CAR 307 51 16.6% -2
63 Calvin Austin III PIT 308 51 16.6% 1
64 Rome Odunze CHI 555 90 16.2% 4
65 Cedric Tillman CLV 278 45 16.2% 0
66 Joshua Palmer LAC 370 58 15.7% 9
67 Jonathan Mingo DAL 238 37 15.5% -1
68 Greg Dortch ARZ 253 39 15.4% 1
69 Allen Lazard NYJ 352 54 15.3% 2
70 Lil’Jordan Humphrey DEN 268 41 15.3% -3
71 Ray-Ray McCloud III ATL 481 73 15.2% 2
72 Keon Coleman BUF 264 40 15.2% -2
73 Sterling Shepard TB 316 47 14.9% 4
74 Alec Pierce IND 377 56 14.9% 2
75 Rashod Bateman BLT 404 59 14.6% 3
76 Jalen McMillan TB 323 47 14.6% 4
77 Brandin Cooks DAL 242 35 14.5% -5
78 Tim Patrick DET 300 43 14.3% -4
79 Michael Wilson ARZ 454 65 14.3% 0
80 Dyami Brown WAS 243 34 14.0% 4
81 Parker Washington JAX 322 44 13.7% 4
82 Darius Slayton NYG 487 66 13.6% 0
83 Tyler Boyd TEN 396 53 13.4% 3
84 Kayshon Boutte NE 411 55 13.4% 3
85 Kendrick Bourne NE 248 32 12.9% -2
86 Jalen Tolbert DAL 508 64 12.6% 3
87 Tyler Lockett SEA 505 62 12.3% 1
88 Ja’Lynn Polk NE 247 30 12.1% 3
89 Demarcus Robinson LA 439 53 12.1% 3
90 Nick Westbrook-Ikhine TEN 368 44 12.0% 0
91 Ricky Pearsall SF 226 27 11.9% #N/A
92 DJ Turner LV 238 28 11.8% 1
93 Mack Hollins BUF 362 42 11.6% 1
94 Tre Tucker LV 576 66 11.5% 1
95 Andrei Iosivas CIN 482 52 10.8% 3
96 Van Jefferson PIT 336 35 10.4% 3
97 Mike Williams PIT 306 31 10.1% 4
98 Mason Tipton NO 238 24 10.1% -2
99 Jalen Nailor MIN 333 33 9.9% 1
100 Justin Watson KC 366 27 7.4% 2
101 Jahan Dotson PHI 348 21 6.0% 2

Comments

Chad says:

Great write up!
Is this data available in any of the downloadable content either in the UDK or somewhere else on your site?

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