Targets Per Route Run Report: Week 16 (Fantasy Football)

It’s the fantasy semifinals! Congratulations for making it this far. You’re smarter and better looking than all the peons who have been eliminated, and you know in your heart that luck and chance have nothing to do with it.

While that’s not the case, we can try to make our best guesses educated, so we turn to fun stats like TPRR. Targets Per Route Run (TPRR) remains one of the most insightful metrics for understanding player opportunity. It tells us who’s running routes and who’s earning looks when they’re out there. As a refresher, TPRR is a simple metric that quantifies a player’s efficiency in earning targets. For wide receivers, a target is the most important underlying metric to predict consistent fantasy output, so a player’s ability to earn these targets at a high rate is key. Historically, a 20% TPRR is a good minimum threshold we want to see, and the best of the best consistently see TPRRs north of 30%.

Week 15 Leaders

CeeDee Lamb continues to prove that talent wins out, finishing with the highest TPRR of the week while catching passes from a surprisingly consistent Cooper Rush.

Malik Nabers continues to make the best of a horrendous situation in New York. We still don’t know whether his quarterback this week will be Drew Lock or Tim Boyle. Lock will get the nod if healthy, which is probably better for Nabers. It’s dicey, but Nabers is tough to sit against Atlanta.

Both DeAndre Hopkins and Xavier Worthy are on the leaderboard for Week 15, but Patrick Mahomes has a high ankle sprain. The report is that he’s planning to play in Week 16, so I’m assuming he’ll be on the field in a limited fashion. The narrative around Xavier Worthy is that he’s a major risk, but he saw 11 targets and an 80% snap share against Cleveland; Hopkins, on the other hand, has hovered around a 50% snap share most games. If Mahomes plays, I like my chances with Worthy against Houston.

Data: pff.com

Notes

Christian Watson and Jayden Reed had identical targets and routes in Week 15, and both had forgettable fantasy weeks. Green Bay, for some reason, seems happy to treat Reed like more of a gadget player, putting him on the field only 50-60% of the time. If you’re looking for upside, Jayden Reed is the more explosive player, but he carries the risk of being left out completely if the game script doesn’t favor three-receiver sets. Watson is little more than a flex play, but he has a more stable floor as the outside receiver on a good offense.

Jerry Jeudy has been on a tear since Jameis Winston took over in Cleveland. Unfortunately, his outlook gets a double whammy with Dorian Thompson-Robinson replacing Winston and Cedric Tillman (concussion) likely suiting up against Cincinnati. Jeudy (or Tillman, for that matter) makes for a great comeback receiver in DFS tournaments because of all these reasons (and a price increase will keep his roster % down), but he’s a risky bet in your league semifinals.

The Full List – Season TPRR Rankings

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Targets Per Route Run – Through Week 15 (Min 210 routes)
Rank	Player	Team	Routes	Targets	TPRR	+ /-
1	Puka Nacua	LA	228	82	36.0%	0
2	Cooper Kupp	LA	313	91	29.1%	0
3	Malik Nabers	NYG	470	135	28.7%	2
4	Josh Downs	IND	289	82	28.4%	0
5	Nico Collins	HST	274	77	28.1%	-1
6	CeeDee Lamb	DAL	501	138	27.5%	1
7	Diontae Johnson	BLT	231	62	26.8%	-1
8	Khalil Shakir	BUF	331	85	25.7%	2
9	Jauan Jennings	SF	332	85	25.6%	-1
10	Dontayvion Wicks	GB	227	57	25.1%	1
11	Davante Adams	NYJ	411	103	25.1%	6
12	Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET	456	114	25.0%	3
12	Drake London	ATL	448	112	25.0%	-3
14	Mike Evans	TB	307	76	24.8%	10
15	A.J. Brown	PHI	304	75	24.7%	-1
16	Justin Jefferson	MIN	483	119	24.6%	3
17	Chris Godwin	TB	244	60	24.6%	-4
18	Garrett Wilson	NYJ	537	132	24.6%	-6
19	George Pickens	PIT	358	87	24.3%	-3
20	Ja’Marr Chase	CIN	567	135	23.8%	1
21	Tutu Atwell	LA	215	51	23.7%	-3
22	Courtland Sutton	DEN	479	111	23.2%	3
23	Ladd McConkey	LAC	377	87	23.1%	-1
24	Tee Higgins	CIN	335	77	23.0%	-4
25	Stefon Diggs	HST	270	62	23.0%	1
26	Zay Flowers	BLT	426	97	22.8%	1
27	Brian Thomas Jr.	JAX	423	96	22.7%	3
28	DeAndre Hopkins	KC	309	70	22.7%	1
29	Amari Cooper	BUF	346	77	22.3%	-6
30	Tyreek Hill	MIA	463	102	22.0%	-2
31	Keenan Allen	CHI	433	95	21.9%	10
32	Michael Pittman Jr.	IND	387	84	21.7%	1
33	Jakobi Meyers	LV	474	102	21.5%	3
34	Christian Kirk	JAX	220	47	21.4%	1
35	Calvin Ridley	TEN	456	97	21.3%	-3
36	Marvin Harrison Jr.	ARZ	424	90	21.2%	-2
37	Terry McLaurin	WAS	435	92	21.1%	1
38	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA	527	111	21.1%	2
39	Wan’Dale Robinson	NYG	492	103	20.9%	0
40	Brandon Aiyuk	SF	215	45	20.9%	-3
41	DeVonta Smith	PHI	341	71	20.8%	3
42	Quentin Johnston	LAC	299	62	20.7%	6
43	D.K. Metcalf	SEA	454	93	20.5%	-12
44	Jayden Reed	GB	322	65	20.2%	2
45	Deebo Samuel	SF	347	70	20.2%	0
46	DJ Moore	CHI	554	109	19.7%	3
47	Troy Franklin	DEN	215	42	19.5%	4
48	Demario Douglas	NE	359	70	19.5%	-1
49	Noah Brown	WAS	278	54	19.4%	1
50	Darnell Mooney	ATL	464	90	19.4%	-8
51	Christian Watson	GB	254	49	19.3%	3
52	Jordan Addison	MIN	381	72	18.9%	3
53	Romeo Doubs	GB	305	57	18.7%	0
54	Devaughn Vele	DEN	245	45	18.4%	-11
55	Jerry Jeudy	CLV	591	108	18.3%	5
56	Xavier Legette	CAR	374	67	17.9%	1
57	Jameson Williams	DET	382	67	17.5%	-5
58	Tank Dell	HST	424	74	17.5%	-2
59	Elijah Moore	CLV	494	85	17.2%	0
60	David Moore	CAR	279	48	17.2%	-2
61	Jaylen Waddle	MIA	440	74	16.8%	0
62	Xavier Worthy	KC	442	74	16.7%	7
63	Gabe Davis	JAX	252	42	16.7%	-1
64	Calvin Austin III	PIT	279	46	16.5%	3
65	Cedric Tillman	CLV	278	45	16.2%	1
66	Jonathan Mingo	DAL	229	37	16.2%	-2
67	Lil’Jordan Humphrey	DEN	254	41	16.1%	-4
68	Rome Odunze	CHI	517	83	16.1%	0
69	Greg Dortch	ARZ	238	38	16.0%	0
70	Keon Coleman	BUF	241	38	15.8%	-5
71	Allen Lazard	NYJ	318	49	15.4%	3
72	Brandin Cooks	DAL	210	32	15.2%	#N/A
73	Ray-Ray McCloud III	ATL	453	69	15.2%	2
74	Tim Patrick	DET	276	42	15.2%	-2
75	Joshua Palmer	LAC	344	52	15.1%	-2
76	Alec Pierce	IND	377	56	14.9%	2
77	Sterling Shepard	TB	299	44	14.7%	-6
78	Rashod Bateman	BLT	383	56	14.6%	1
79	Michael Wilson	ARZ	416	60	14.4%	-3
80	Jalen McMillan	TB	280	40	14.3%	5
80	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	NO	217	31	14.3%	#N/A
82	Darius Slayton	NYG	451	64	14.2%	-5
83	Kendrick Bourne	NE	216	30	13.9%	3
84	Dyami Brown	WAS	211	29	13.7%	#N/A
85	Parker Washington	JAX	282	38	13.5%	-2
86	Tyler Boyd	TEN	375	50	13.3%	-5
87	Kayshon Boutte	NE	374	48	12.8%	3
88	Tyler Lockett	SEA	469	60	12.8%	-4
89	Jalen Tolbert	DAL	495	61	12.3%	2
90	Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	TEN	333	41	12.3%	-3
91	Ja’Lynn Polk	NE	244	30	12.3%	-3
92	Demarcus Robinson	LA	425	52	12.2%	-3
93	DJ Turner	LV	238	28	11.8%	1
94	Mack Hollins	BUF	336	39	11.6%	-1
95	Tre Tucker	LV	536	62	11.6%	-3
96	Mason Tipton	NO	218	24	11.0%	-1
97	Luke McCaffrey	WAS	214	23	10.7%	1
98	Andrei Iosivas	CIN	457	49	10.7%	-1
99	Van Jefferson	PIT	307	32	10.4%	-1
100	Jalen Nailor	MIN	306	31	10.1%	-4
101	Mike Williams	PIT	288	28	9.7%	-1
102	Justin Watson	KC	343	26	7.6%	-1
103	Jahan Dotson	PHI	317	21	6.6%	-1