NFL Week 10 Weather Conditions (Fantasy Football)

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Brrr. We had a nice thing going with a warm fall season but winter is here with seven games played in 30-degree weather. This is a pretty good week to talk about weather trends.

There are two types of analysis as it relates to weather. The first is macro weather trends where conditions like winds in excess of 20 mph sustained is associated with a decrease in passing game effectiveness. The second (and less talked about) is the impact weather has on individual players. Certain quarterbacks are just more sensitive to weather conditions especially cold. This is why some games played in frigid temperatures have a fantasy impact and other games played in similar or even colder temperatures have no predicted fantasy impacts.

As always, updates will be posted below regularly with a final look around 12:30 p.m. EST.

Updates:

Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans
Fantasy Impact: It looks like this game will see some rain especially in the first half. It doesn’t really change very much from a fantasy perspective but the cold and wet ball will probably create some handling issues.

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 13th, 2022

Seattle Seahawks at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (International Series)

9:30 AM ET // Allianz Arena // Munich, Germany

Temp: 53°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 8 mph
Wind Gusts: 12 mph

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Fantasy Impact: None

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears

1:00 PM ET // Soldier Field // Chicago, Illinois

Temp: 36°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 8 mph
Wind Gusts: 10 mph

Fantasy Impact: Jared Goff is just terrible in cold weather games. At this point in his career, he’s played in six games with temperatures 21-40° with terrible results. His yards per game, completion percentage, yards per attempt, and TD-INT ratio all get worse in cold weather games. His completion percentage in cold weather games drops to just over 50% while getting sacked at a rate over three sacks per game. Goff shouldn’t be in lineups in any format though D’Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown should still be in lineups.

The other side of the ball shouldn’t be as affected. Justin Fields‘ value in fantasy comes from rushing, which shouldn’t be impacted by the cold. We can expect Chicago to bludgeon Detroit’s defense with Khalil Herbert and David Montgomery getting plenty of touches. Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet, and Chase Claypool remain viable-if-desperate though inconsistent starts.

Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins

1:00 PM ET // Hard Rock Stadium // Miami Gardens, Florida

Temp: 79°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 3 mph
Wind Gusts: 5 mph

Fantasy Impact: None

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Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans

1:00 PM ET // Nissan Stadium / / Nashville, Tennessee

Temp: 39°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 8 mph
Wind Gusts: 10 mph

Fantasy Impact: None

Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills

1:00 PM ET // Highmark Stadium // Orchard Park, New York

Temp: 37°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 14 mph
Wind Gusts: 20 mph

Fantasy Impact: None

Houston Texans at New York Giants

1:00 PM ET // MetLife Stadium // East Rutherford, New Jersey

Temp: 46°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 12 mph
Wind Gusts: 22 mph

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Fantasy Impact: None

Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs

1:00 PM ET // GEHA Field At Arrowhead Stadium // Kansas City, Missouri

Temp: 37°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 8 mph
Wind Gusts: 9 mph

Fantasy Impact: Trevor Lawrence has never played an NFL game this cold so far in his young career. Coming from Clemson also means that he didn’t have much experience in colder games through his college career. How much the cold will affect Trevor Lawrence is a huge unknown, but it’s already a tough matchup on the road in hostile territory. I’m avoiding all Jaguars with the exception of Travis Etienne.

There is no fantasy impact for Kansas City from the cold.

New Orleans Saints at Pittsburgh Steelers

1:00 PM ET // Acrisure Field // Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

Temp: 34°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 10 mph
Wind Gusts: 21 mph

Fantasy Impact: None

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Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers

1:00 PM ET // Lambeau Field // Green Bay, Wisconsin

Temp: 32°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 5 mph
Wind Gusts: 6 mph

Fantasy Impact: None

Los Angeles Chargers at San Francisco 49ers

8:20 PM ET // Levi’s Stadium // Santa Clara, California

Temp: 55°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 5 mph
Wind Gusts: 9 mph

Fantasy Impact: None

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 14th, 2022

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles

8:15 PM ET // Lincoln Financial Field // Philadelphia,  Pennsylvania

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Temp: 39°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 3 mph
Wind Gusts: 5 mph

Fantasy Impact: None

DOME GAMES

Indianapolis Colts at Las Vegas Raiders

4:05 PM ET // Allegiant Stadium // Paradise, Nevada

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Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams

4:25 PM ET // SoFi Stadium // Los Angeles, California

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