NFL Team Performance Trends: Week 7 (Fantasy Football)
In this article, I will break down NFL team performances going into Week 7 based on their expected points added (EPA) per play on both offense and defense. Let’s jump right into things.
Offensive Takeaways
The Commanders still lead the league in offensive efficiency with a 0.20 EPA/play. Terry McLaurin has risen to the Baller’s 11th-ranked WR. He’s scored four TDs in the last four weeks, and he looks unstoppable with Daniels throwing him the ball. The run game has been going, with Brian Robinson scoring 10 or more points every week this season.
After a strong showing against Dallas in Week 6, the Lions have risen in the rankings of offensive efficiency. They’ve put up 0.11 EPA/play this season, and have been effective through every offensive option. Start your Detroit players!
The Bills bounced back after a two-week cold spell. Josh Allen looked spectacular against the Jets, and now with the addition of a true WR1 in Amari Cooper, big things are ahead for this Buffalo team.
The Falcons are trending in the right direction, increasing from 0.04 EPA/play to 0.06. They face Seattle who has been below average on defense this season, so look to start your Atlanta options in Week 7.
The Chicago Bears continue to improve. As they go into their bye week, they have continued their trend of increasing their offensive EPA each week. Start your Bears!
Minnesota has declined in offensive efficiency throughout the season and is now coming off a bye week that looks eerily similar to their season beginning in 2016 when they started 5-0 and missed the playoffs. They play the red-hot Lions in Week 7, so keep an eye on their performance this week to help evaluate how they will trend moving forward.
Defensive Takeaways
The Vikings still lead the league in defensive efficiency, at 0.17 EPA/play, yet they play the Lions this coming week, so it may be a bad idea to go with them in fantasy.
The Colts play the Dolphins in Week 7, who have a -0.18 EPA/play on offense this season. While the Colts’ defense has been mediocre, look for them to put up strong fantasy numbers this week.
The Chargers, who boast a 0.15 EPA/play defensively, take on the Cardinals in Week 7. This will be a great matchup, but could influence Arizona’s fantasy output poorly on offense.
The Patriots get the blessing of facing the worst-performing defense in football, the Jaguars. While the Pats’ offense hasn’t been sharp this season, Drake Maye threw three TDs in his first start against the Texans and should show some more of his skills against a weaker opponent. If you are looking for a flex play, or need a QB this week, it might be the one time you take a look at the New England players.
The Commanders play the Panthers in Week 7, who have a -0.12 EPA/play on defense this year. This should be an exciting one for Washington fantasy owners.
Player Profiles
To wrap things up, let’s take a look at some player profiles.
Josh Downs: Downs has been amazing since coming back from injury, putting up 0.53 EPA/play. However, he’s been blessed with the pocket passer Joe Flacco, who has backed up the injured Anthony Richardson. With Richardson lined up to play in Week 7, it might be time to bench Downs for a week to see if he’ll continue his production without a strong passing QB.
JuJu Smith-Schuster: JuJu looked great in his 2024 debut with the Chiefs, grabbing a TD and over 100 yards. The Ballers put him at WR37, telling us he could be a strong flex option for the coming weeks.
Zack Moss: After a rough Week 6 performance, look for Chase Brown to take the lead in the backfield for the Bengals, as Moss’ efficiency has dropped severely.
Najee Harris: Harris has put up mediocre numbers this season, and with the return of Jaylen Warren to the backfield, look for his production to slow down moving forward.
That’s all for this week, be sure to check back next week for a Week 8 preview!