NFL DFS Tournament Takes & Leverage Points: Week 2 (Fantasy Football)

For the Week 2 main slate, I am less interested in finding players nobody wants than in figuring out what the field is paying for. 

• Which chalk deserves the attention? 
• Where are we giving up too much projection just to be different? 
• And how can we turn those answers into better tournament lineups?

One week of football is enough to change some assumptions, but I am not treating every good game like a breakout or every bad game like a reason to punt a player off a bridge. Let’s identify the decisions that matter and leave ourselves a plan for late swap.

Note: All projections and ownership percentages referenced in my analysis come from my blended estimates. Screenshots are from the Optimizer, so they will not always match the figures used in the write-up.

Slate Overview

Last week, Gibbs was the first big ownership decision. This week, that conversation starts with Bijan. My projections have him at 39.72% ownership and 22.98 projected DK points, but CMC is only 0.78 points behind at 22.61% ownership. I am not fading Bijan just to be different, but that is a small projection gap for a pretty big ownership difference. CMC is not sneaky. He is just a simple price point pivot.

With all the busts at WR last week, there is something to be said about paying up at RB and letting the chips fall as they may with mid-tier WRs. Last week, if you paid up for Gibbs and Bijan, you could have easily ended up with Christian Watson and Jalen Coker in lineups.

Yet again, QB ownership is spread out. That gives us plenty of ways to get different while jamming chalk into our builds. Wentz ownership likely steams up through the weekend at his discounted salary.

Mayer at $3,600 leaves more money for stars at RB and WR. I want some lineups that do the opposite: pay $6,900 for McBride at 8.27% ownership and make up the difference with cheaper players elsewhere. The bet is not just that McBride outscores Mayer. It is that McBride, paired with two unique partners, outscores Mayer paired with more expensive ones.

I know, hindsight is 20/20, so this is NOT prescriptive, but here is a way to think about it from last week’s pricing:

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Combo A

Combo B

Ownership Notes

Quarterback

• My blend has Dak at 10.61% ownership and Purdy at 10.41%, so I do not feel forced to get ridiculous at QB. There are plenty of ways to play against those builds without digging for someone who needs six things to go right. I care more about the entire stack than finding the lowest-owned QB.
• Lamar at 5.28% compared with Henry at 19.64% is where I want some of my BAL exposure. We can agree with the field that BAL scores and disagree about who collects the TDs. Give me some builds where Lamar finishes those drives through the air or on the ground instead of handing everything to Henry.
• Daniels at 6.14% is my preferred way to attack the DAL game. I like McLaurin with him and Pickens coming back, but Pickens is at 16.78% himself, so let’s not pretend the whole lineup becomes sneaky because we switched QBs. The bet is on WAS doing enough scoring to keep both passing games involved.
• Hurts at 3.12%? I am going to have some of that. My blend still gives him 20.41 projected DK points, and DeVonta at 5.30% gives us a partner who is not dragging a ton of ownership into the stack. I would rather find savings elsewhere than automatically rule out this combination because a cheaper QB makes the lineup easier to build.
• Nix at 4.83% is a Waddle stack for me, not just a cheap QB click. Waddle is at 4.51%, so neither player needs an obscure teammate added just to make the combination different. I am betting on them producing together, but I still want strong projected plays around them rather than turning the whole lineup into a collection of darts.

Running Back

• Bijan at 39.72% is not an automatic fade, but I do not need him in every lineup either. CMC is only 0.78 projected points behind him at 22.61% ownership. I want plenty of builds that make that switch without tearing apart the rest of the lineup. Bijan can have a good game and still not be the RB we needed at that salary. I am not scared to have a bunch of lineups with both of them and hunt for multiple sub $6k WR/punt QB/TE. 
• Javonte at 21.29% makes sense with 17.82 projected points for $6,400. My concern is not Javonte by himself. It is clicking Bijan, Javonte, and the obvious salary savers, then wondering why our lineup looks familiar. I would rather change the stack or pay up at TE. 
• Henry is at 19.64%, and I am still leaning toward Lamar as my way to play against those builds. I am not making a rule that we cannot roster them together, but that is a different bet. Playing both asks BAL to produce enough for both salaries; playing Lamar without Henry bets on Lamar collecting more of the scoring. Know which version of that game your lineup needs and pray you are right. 
• Bucky at 12.17% is one of my favorite ways to move away from the more popular RB combinations. He saves $300 compared with Javonte while giving up 1.81 blended projected points. That is not a free upgrade, but it is a trade I am willing to make in some tournament builds, especially when the savings improve another spot.
• Breece at 10.23% gives us another option in that same price range. I slightly prefer Bucky on the numbers, with a higher projection for $100 less, but I want Hall in the mix rather than making every middle-priced RB decision the same. Neither needs to be surrounded by five more contrarian plays. 
• Chuba at 6.18% is my lower-owned RB swing, but the $5,800 salary needs to do something for us. Moving from Bijan to Chuba saves $2,400 while giving up 8.87 projected points, so clearly that’s not an equal replacement. Show me which WR or TE we can upgrade with that money. The argument has to be that our new combination is worth the risk, not just that fewer people clicked Chuba.

Wide Receiver

• Pickens at 16.78% is my preferred Dallas bring-back with Daniels. He is not sneaky, but we can get different through the stack instead of forcing a bad WR into it.
• Jefferson at 13.91% projects almost identically to CeeDee with less ownership. I like pairing him with Loveland and betting on both sides producing through the air.
• Diggs at 5.58% and Flournoy at 2.09% give us different ways into Dallas-Washington. Diggs fits Daniels stacks; Flournoy is my large-field dart, not a Pickens replacement.
• Waddle at 4.51% and Higgins at 4.31% are my favorite lower-owned swings. Waddle goes with Nix; Higgins bets on CIN passing TDs going somewhere other than Chase.
• Evans at 6.53% gives us another way to attack SF. I like Purdy-Evans builds that bet on the passing game doing the damage instead of CMC collecting everything. I’ll have plenty of lineups with Purdy, CMC, and Evans/Deebo/etc.
• Boutte at 1.79% is my cheap Houston swing, not a guaranteed target hog. Use him with Stroud or opposite Higgins, but I bet he will steam up come kickoff.

Tight End

• McBride at 8.27% is my favorite way to challenge the cheap TE builds. Find savings across two WRs instead of assuming paying up means punting another spot.
• Loveland at 7.36% gives us a middle-priced option with 12.28 projected points. I like him opposite Jefferson rather than letting last week’s result make the decision.
• Ferguson at 4.68% is another way into the DAL-WAS game. The TDs do not all have to land with the expensive WRs, and he fits Daniels stacks coming back.
• Juwan Johnson at 6.02% works in Lamar stacks that bet on NO answering through the air. I like the connection, but a bring-back is not mandatory.
• Fannin at 2.99% is my aggressive swing alongside Bucky. The bet is Tampa takes control, and Cleveland responds through Fannin, not simply that nobody wants him.

DST

I am spreading out here, not letting one defense decide my slate.

• PHI at 6.42% projects slightly ahead of TB at 10.49%. That is my preferred pay-up pivot without sacrificing projection.
• SF at 5.68% fits my CMC builds. I want the lead forcing MIA into mistakes, but controlling the game does not guarantee a defensive TD.
• BAL at 7.00% is my middle-priced option. Check the pass-rush injury report before lock.
• ARI (lolz) at 2.28% is my cheaper swing. The savings need to buy a meaningful upgrade elsewhere, not just make the lineup less popular.

Late Swap

Final Thoughts

Favorite Stack: Jalen Hurts +DeVonta Smith + Carnell Tate Runback

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I like betting on PHI’s TDs coming through Hurts and DeVonta, with Tate coming back as a bet on TEN actually utilizing its rookie selection properly. Hurts and Smith alone combine for 35.25 projected points at just 8.42% summed ownership, so the core already gives us a way to get different without reaching for a fringe player. Tate is the more speculative piece, and I would not force him into every lineup just to complete the game stack because I worry about Cam Ward’s ability. All three cost $18,600 and combine for 45.07 projected DK points at 9.71% pOwn.