NFL Team Performance Trends: Week 10 (Fantasy Football)
In this article, I will break down NFL team performances going into Week 10 based on their expected points added (EPA) per play on both offense and defense. Let’s jump right into things.
Offensive Takeaways
The Eagles have picked up the pace offensively in recent weeks, after falling close to a neutrally performing offense. On the back of Saquon Barkley, the offense is back to 0.06 EPA/play after a strong start to the season. They face a struggling Cowboys defense in Week 10 so look for them to continue to roll.
Chicago seems to have met their peak offensively — after consistent improvement, in the last two weeks the Bears have plateaued in offensive performance. They’ve got the Patriots in Week 10 but then go through a gauntlet of GB, MIN, DET, SF, and MIN again. It might be time to fade your Bears players.
Dallas has maintained a mediocre offense throughout the entirety of this season. While there aren’t many fantasy options here outside of Ceedee Lamb, Rico Dowdle has emerged as their RB1 in recent weeks, scoring over 10 PPR points in his last four games played.
The Ravens and Bills are rolling offensively. Quarterbacks Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen have heated up, and with the addition of Diontae Johnson and Amari Cooper, respectively, both passers now have an even greater range of options. The Ravens face the Bengals in Week 10 — a great matchup for fantasy. The Bills take on the Colts, who have been a bit stronger on defense this season, posting 0.02 EPA/play defensively.
Are the Jets improving? If you look at the cumulative sum of their offensive EPA as shown in one of the graphics below, you’ll notice a slow trend upwards — following a big fantasy showing on Thursday Night Football in Week 9, some are wondering if the Jets are finally breaking out. They’ve got the Cardinals in Week 10, one of the least efficient defenses in football — will the Jets perform well again, or are they the same old Jets?
Defensive Takeaways
The Chargers are a defensive monster. Posting a 0.15 EPA/play defensively, they have been an amazing option at defense in fantasy. They take on the Titans in Week 10 — you know what to do!
The Jaguars post a -0.11 EPA/play defensively thus far, and face the Vikings in Week 10. Coming off a big win against Indianapolis, look for the Vikings to continue to roll against Jacksonville. Sam Darnold, Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones, and TJ Hockenson are all strong starts.
The Buccaneers have shown their defense to be quite subpar. They face the 49ers in Week 10, so look for your Niners players to succeed.
Looking to stream defenses? Here are some great options:
Chicago Bears: Facing the Patriots in Week 10, who have a -0.09 EPA/play offensively this season, and only show slight improvement with Maye.
Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles take on the Cowboys in Week 10, who have a -0.02 EPA/play on offense this season.
New York Giants: While their defense hasn’t been incredibly strong this season, they have the Panthers in Week 10 who score a -0.12 EPA/play offensively.
Player Profiles
DeAndre Hopkins: Despite a slow start to the season, Hopkins’ EPA numbers prove he has still got it. After a two-TD performance in Week 9, he might be in for a phenomenal end to the season.
Trey Palmer: If you are looking for a high-upside pickup, Trey Palmer might be your guy. With a low volume, he’s shown great efficiency this season, and with Tampa Bay’s top two receivers gone, he has the chance to continue showing his skills and gain more targets.
Tony Pollard: Tony Pollard has put up strong fantasy numbers this season, however, he has a low EPA/play. This could be due to his low TD production — keep a keen eye on his performance in the coming weeks and beware of a drop-off.
