Just the Stats: Usage Trends from Week 2 (Fantasy Football)

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@kyle_borg

Every Monday during the NFL season, I want to give you a blitz of usage stats, scheme changes, and oddities from the previous week of the NFL. The goal is to give you a rapid fire, unfiltered look at how we digest a Sunday’s-worth of action and try to start deciphering what is valuable and what is not.

I wrote a 10 Usage Trends primer article before the season if you want more detail about some of the statistics and examples from the past. This data supplied in the article is noted under each statistic.

IMPORTANT NOTE: This data includes games played from Thursday-Sunday and does not include MNF games.

Personnel Updates from Week 2

*Data from Sumer Sports

This week I want to highlight some of the major changes from Week 1 to Week 2.

  • “Consistency is key,” they said. Somehow the two worst offenses from Week 1 (ATL & PIT) were even worse in Week 2 in terms of EPA per play.

  • The Texans and Jaguars increased had more WR involvement in Week 2. Despite Nico Collins‘ injury, the Texans jumped in 11-personnel usage by 26% but Dalton Schultz was the biggest beneficiary. The Jaguars had a tougher time against the Broncos defense, especially in the second half. 
  • Despite not having Zay Flowers and Ja’Kobi Lane, the Ravens actually ran more 11-personnel this past week. They rank 9th in pass rate over expectation through two weeks after being 26th and 31st the past two seasons.
  • The Chargers are in a world of pain after dropping their second consecutive home game.

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  • The Bills still played 60+ percent of their snaps with 2+ TEs on the field. Despite losing DJ Moore early in the contest, they were even better on a EPA per play basis in Week 2.
  • Indianapolis played Kansas City quite close on Sunday night utilizing more 2TE heavy sets. It was one of the clearest “more two-TE, less 3-WR” pivots of the week.
  • The Seahawks beefed up this week against the Cardinals running 2 or more TEs on the fields on 73% of their snaps! In fact, none of the WRs topped a 60% route share. Why you ask? They sat on a lead running the ball on 68% of their 2nd half plays, the highest rate in the league. On the other hand, Cardinals offense fell into the garbage in the second half.

Per-Route Metrics

Through two weeks, these were the league-leaders at WR organized by fantasy points per game:

*Data per Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0

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  • JSN is on another planet leading the league in literally every single advanced receiving metric. In fact, I had to essentially remove him from this chart below to make everyone else fit.

  • Since Week 10 of last year, only Puka, JSN and Amon-Ra St. Brown have more fantasy points among WRs than Chris Olave.
  • DeVonta Smith‘s 36% target share is the 5th highest among all WRs so far.
  • Stefon Diggs‘ 66% slot rate is important considering the Commanders have targeted their slot WRs on 37% of their attempts, the highest rate in the league. Rookie WRs since 2000 with 90+ % snaps and a rec TD in each of their 1st 2 NFL games: Emeka Egbuka and Denzel Boston.
  • Rashee Rice‘s expected fantasy points is a woeful 5.6 per game. When you couple that with an alarmingly low 9% target share, his former PPR niche role in the offense feels like a thing of the past.
  • Here is the rest of WRs organized by fantasy points per with a routes run threshold of 30 through two weeks.

QB Metrics

*Data per Sumer Sports

  • For some reason, people still doubt Brock Purdy. He leads all QBs in EPA per play, completion rate (80%) and pass success rate.
  • Dak Prescott completed 17-of-18 passes for 178 yards and 4 TDs from a ‘clean pocket and Tom Brady on the broadcast called one of Dak’s throw an “absolute piss missile”.
  • All the Justin Herbert Bros (*raises hand*) are crying into their pillows after another home loss. His 38% play success rate is a bottom-7 mark through two weeks.
  • Jordan Love ranks dead last in completion percentage and scramble rate through two weeks.
  • The Eagles might’ve changed up the approach in Week 2 but the offense was essentially the same on an EPA per play basis.

RB Receiving Usage

Through two weeks, here are the RBs who have run 25+ routes on the field according to Pro Football Focus:

*Data from Pro Football Focus

  • Jonathan Taylor has seen 45% and 47% of the Colts total rush attempts and targets through two games. It is THE over-the-top elite workhorse role. It is worth noting when Alec Pierce was not on the field, the team’s EPA per play dropped dramatically (-0.13) and the yards per carry from 5.53 to 3.50.
  • Christian McCaffrey and Bijan Robinson continue to see elite usage as receiver essentially functioning as the team’s WR1. Bijan has 49% of the team’s total yards this season!
  • D’Andre Swift has one of the largest deltas (12%) in his TPRR and his True Target Rate (factoring in pass blocks). With Caleb Williams out, he was asked to pass block an absurd amount this past week.
  • The Saints backfield usage is mysterious. Travis Etienne Jr. has six total first half carries through the first two weeks. He has been on the field for more pass plays (64) than any other RB in football and yet he has been targeted on just 16% of those plays.

  • Omarion Hampton‘s 8% TPRR is worrisome for anyone who had RB1 aspirations for him.
  • Do not read anything into Brian Robinson Jr. running 3 more routes than Bijan this week. They sat everyone in the second half once backup backup UDFA Jack Strand was in. Bijan played six total snaps in the second half of their blow out loss at home.

TEs Routes & Pass Blocking

*Data from Pro Football Focus

  • George Kittle went right back to being… George Kittle. His 2.97 YPRR and 29% TPRR is the type of top-shelf per-route stuff we are used to from the All-Pro.
  • Colston Loveland‘s 0.05 YPRR is utterly painful considering he’s run the 6th most routes of any TE.

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  • Ho hum… just a 37% target share through two weeks for Trey McBride.
  • Tyler Warren is being asked to pass block more in 2026 (11.9% versus 6.9% last year) and his aDOT is a paltry 1.4 yards.

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