The TRUTH: Top 10 Fantasy QBs + Scramby Daniels

Summary:

Introduction to the Truth Series 00:56

“We are excited about the truth series, the beginning of the truth series, the truth of the quarterback position today on the show.”

• The hosts express enthusiasm for launching their “Truth Series,” which aims to delve deeply into various aspects of fantasy football, starting with the quarterback position.
• This special series was first initiated on January 12, 2016, marking a significant date for the podcast. Jason fondly recalls being in Disneyland during that inaugural episode, hinting at the camaraderie and shared experiences among the hosts.

Discussion on Sam Darnold‘s Performance 03:56

“If two weeks ago, Sam Darnold broke his middle finger on his throwing hand, he would be so much better off.”

• The hosts discuss Sam Darnold‘s recent performance, noting the pressures he faced during crucial playoff games. Darnold’s struggles included holding the ball too long, leading to an accumulation of sacks because the routes were not open.
• It is suggested that Darnold missed opportunities to run the ball, which could have alleviated some of the pressure and kept the defense guessing.
• The conversation highlights how crucial the last two games were, suggesting that they significantly impacted Darnold’s future earnings and career trajectory, placing him in a category with other quarterbacks seeking stability.

Update on Hiring Within the Fantasy Footballers Team 06:50

“We are hiring yet another position… A couple things I want to let you know.”

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• The team announces they are expanding by hiring a graphic designer to enhance their visual presence. This role is particularly highlighted as essential for their brand development.
• The hosts clarify that this position is not remote, indicating the desire for local talent who are familiar with the podcast’s culture and audience. They emphasize the need for a designer with exceptional skills, someone whose work impresses and surprises them.

Browns Promote Tommy Reese to Offensive Coordinator 09:55

“He’s a young up-and-comer who’s kind of flown up and everything that people talk about around him is that he’s got this brilliant football mind.”

• The Cleveland Browns have promoted Tommy Reese, previously their tight ends coach, to offensive coordinator. This decision is viewed with excitement, as he was the offensive coordinator at Alabama in 2023 and has a reputation for having an exceptional football intellect.
• Reese’s promotion raises some eyebrows because he was not the typical “next in line” candidate; he was originally a tight ends coach rather than a widely recognized offensive coordinator.
• This move is seen as a glimmer of hope for the Browns, who have been struggling to find stability at the quarterback position.

Deontay Johnson’s Departure and Team Needs 10:42

“If every single team out there who is in desperate need for your services does not want you, you got to look inward.”

• Deontay Johnson is no longer part of the Houston Texans, a significant development considering the Texans may need additional receiving talent. Johnson’s exit appears to stem from dissatisfaction with his role during his time with the Texans, particularly after a playoff victory.
• His situation reflects a concerning trend: if multiple teams in need of a receiver are not interested in bringing a player on board, it’s essential for the player to introspectively evaluate their performance and fit within the league.

Evaluating Quarterbacks in 2024 12:36

“Sometimes, it’s a good time of year to evaluate so that we can go into the next season with the right mindset on these players.”

• The discussion transitions to analyzing quarterback performances for the upcoming 2024 season. The focus will be on understanding each quarterback’s contribution beyond just their final stats for the previous year. For example, a quarterback may finish as a top-ranked fantasy player but didn’t consistently deliver in matchups.
• Evaluating players provides insights for the upcoming season, ensuring that fantasy football participants make informed decisions based on actual performance rather than just end-year rankings.

Importance of Offensive Systems in Fantasy Performance 19:44

“It takes a while to get an offense truly out there and really fully running where people aren’t thinking about things.”

• An offensive strategy requires time to establish itself, eventually leading to players performing instinctively rather than consciously.
• Initially, players must think through their actions, but as they gain experience, their movements become second nature due to muscle memory.
• This concept highlights the significance of consistent offensive systems in enhancing player performance, especially in fantasy football.

Lamar Jackson‘s Impact and Fantasy Value 20:10

“Lamar’s passing numbers still would have made him a top five, top three fantasy quarterback.”

• Lamar Jackson‘s impressive passing stats position him as one of the top fantasy quarterbacks, alongside his significant rushing yardage of 900 yards.
• While the addition of another strong player like Derrick Henry is valuable, it doesn’t automatically translate to a significant increase in passing stats or touchdowns.
• Jackson’s successful integration into an offense that allows for both passing and rushing plays elevates his overall fantasy value.

Year-to-Year Variations in Touchdown Rates 22:19

“The touchdowns aren’t as sticky and predictable when you’re at 40.”

• Lamar Jackson‘s past seasons illustrate fluctuations in touchdown rates; after achieving an extraordinary 9% touchdown rate in 2019, it dropped to 6.9% the following year.
• In subsequent seasons, the rates continued to vary, showing his inconsistency in scoring touchdowns, typically not staying at elite levels consistently.
• This suggests that expecting a repeat of high touchdown seasons can be misleading when considering player performance for future fantasy drafts.

Comparative Analysis of Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson 25:31

“When I look at Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, I think who gets better next season.”

• Evaluating the potential for improvement, Josh Allen is seen as having a clearer path for enhancement in the coming season compared to Lamar Jackson.
• Allen’s rushing touchdowns are viewed as more reliable due to the offensive strategies used by his team, such as the “tush push” play.
• In contrast to Jackson, who still relies heavily on longer runs for touchdowns, Allen’s play style makes him a more stable option for fantasy performance.

Joe Burrow‘s Performance Insights 29:20

“If you like fantasy points from Joe Burrow, you should also hope that T. Higgins is back.”

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• Joe Burrow is identified as a pocket passer, highlighting his playing style effectively. The necessity for a strong supporting cast, like T. Higgins, is emphasized since Burrow performs better when he has multiple receiver options on the field.
• His performance statistics from previous seasons reflect consistency, showing that he had a down year due to injuries, but is expected to bounce back. Comparatively, Burrow’s passing yardage, completion percentage, and touchdown numbers this year are at career highs, indicating a return to form after dealing with injuries in the previous season.
• The complexities of drafting Burrow in fantasy leagues are discussed, noting his high volume of pass attempts. For example, Burrow had 652 attempts compared to Josh Allen’s 483 in the previous season, suggesting that Burrow’s potential to achieve great fantasy numbers might be underappreciated in early drafting.

Trends for Next Season 32:40

“Joe Burrow next year is probably going to be a very sketchy ADP pick.”

• The prospect for Burrow in the next fantasy season could become complicated due to competition from players like Jaden Daniels and C.J. Stroud, suggesting Burrow may be drafted lower than his finishing position in the previous season.
• It is predicted that traditional top-tier players will still be favored over Burrow in upcoming drafts, making him a potential value pick despite the uncertainty surrounding his next season’s performance.
• Burrow’s fantasy legacy includes periods of great performance punctuated by injuries, thus making him an intriguing but risky choice for fantasy football managers.

Baker Mayfield‘s Surprising Consistency 35:51

“Baker Mayfield finished at number five in consistency.”

• Baker Mayfield‘s season performance surprised many, as he ranked fifth in consistency among quarterbacks. His ability to start strong but falter near the end highlights the volatility often seen in fantasy football seasons.
• Despite losing key players like Chris Godwin and Mike Evans during crucial weeks, Mayfield still managed to maintain an adequate level of performance, demonstrating resilience throughout his season.
• The conversation acknowledges Mayfield’s impressive touchdown rate this season, recognizing that while he achieved a career-high 7.2%, this rate is likely to regress in the future. Such insights are invaluable for drafting decisions moving forward.

Baker Mayfield‘s Revival 38:35

“His career was made by that one unbelievable drive for the Rams.”

• Baker Mayfield has had a tumultuous career with multiple offenses, but his notable moment playing for the Rams sparked a renaissance in his reputation as a quarterback. The game highlighted his ability to lead a team effectively, throwing precision passes and showcasing the talent that made him a top draft pick initially.
• After struggles in Carolina and a lack of confidence from teams, particularly after the Panthers released both him and Sam Darnold, his career saw a resurgence when Tampa Bay signed him. Initially considered a temporary solution, Mayfield has since emerged as a key player for the franchise, indicating a newfound stability and support system around him.
• Although it’s acknowledged that he might not reach past highs of 40 touchdowns again, there is optimism for his performance to improve, particularly given the right team dynamics and organizational support. Mayfield’s mobility, which was a pivotal trait in his college career, has also started to return—evident from his significantly increased rushing yards this season.

The New Metrics in Performance Evaluation 40:54

“We’re adding the dog factor.”

• There is a humorous yet insightful discussion about creating a new metric to evaluate players based on their on-field toughness and competitiveness, dubbed “the dog factor.” This metaphorical metric aims to recognize the players who display an innate ability to fight for every inch and make impactful plays, regardless of traditional stats.
• For Mayfield, moments like stiff-arming defenders and pushing through tackles exemplify this quality. It indicates that performance evaluations could evolve to better capture the essence of a player’s grit and determination on the field, creating a more nuanced understanding of player capabilities beyond quantitative statistics.

Jalen Hurts‘ Play Style and Consistency 41:41

“Was he a bust? No.”

• Jalen Hurts faced scrutiny regarding his performance following a draft class that had high expectations. Despite not being labeled a bust, his productivity did not align with the hopes set during the draft. His consistency indicated he was reliable, giving solid performances throughout but struggled significantly in the second half of the season.
• The conversation highlights his effectiveness against weak opposition compared to stronger teams, raising questions about whether he will develop into a franchise quarterback. His rushing ability remains a critical aspect of his game, contributing significantly to his touchdown totals, which keeps him fantasy-relevant despite lower passing yards.
• The dynamics of the Philadelphia Eagles‘ offense, characterized by a strong defense and reliance on the run game, may hinder Hurts’ ability to achieve high passing yard totals. Consequently, if the focus remains on ground game strategies, Hurts may find it difficult to match previous seasons in terms of aerial performance.

Streaming Quarterbacks and Fantasy Potential 48:11

“When you’re desperately looking at the waiver wire, it’s about finding that player with a good matchup.”

• Fantasy football managers often find themselves scouring the waiver wire for quarterbacks with favorable matchups to enhance their team’s performance. For instance, streaming players like Jared Goff can lead to impressive fantasy results, such as scoring four touchdowns under the right conditions.
• The Detroit Lions‘ offensive dynamics played a significant role in Goff’s success, especially when running back David Montgomery was healthy. However, the situation changed significantly when injuries accumulated over time, forcing Goff to increase his passing attempts in the later weeks of the season.
• Historically, the Lions had a solid defense which made it difficult for opponents to run the ball. As their passing game opened up towards the end of the season, the fantasy landscape for Goff shifted, showcasing how injuries altered team strategies and player output.

The Importance of Offensive Coordination 50:38

“If I were hiring a head coach for my team, Ben Johnson would be the one I would want.”

• The potential departure of Lions’ offensive coordinator Ben Johnson raises concerns about how well Jared Goff will perform in the future. Johnson’s innovative play-calling has been crucial in Goff’s elevated performance this season.
• Goff’s history as a quarterback who was presumed a bridge player to a better option in Detroit underscores how coaching and system fit are vital. With Ben Johnson potentially moving to another team, it will be interesting to see if Goff can maintain his success or if the team’s offensive identity will change significantly.
• The mention of Goff’s performance during this season reflects a unique synergy between him and Johnson, suggesting that while Goff has played well, it has been part of a larger collaborative effort.

Quarterback Consistency and Fantasy Value 52:43

“If you drafted Mahomes, you probably didn’t make the playoffs because he dotted every single time.”

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• The analysis reveals that players like Patrick Mahomes showed alarming inconsistency throughout the season. Despite being a highly drafted quarterback, Mahomes struggled to produce fantasy points consistently, which significantly impacted the performance of fantasy teams.
• Comparatively, Sam Darnold‘s inconsistent output served as a stark contrast. Although he had a few high-scoring games, he also generated many lackluster performances that prevented fantasists from relying on him week after week.
• The expectations of drafting a top-tier quarterback often clashed with the reality of their on-field performance, highlighting how crucial consistency is for any fantasy player aiming for playoff contention.

Player Analysis and Expectations for Drafting 57:51

“His ADP will be fascinating.”

• The discussion revolves around analyzing a player’s Average Draft Position (ADP) and how it might change based on previous performances. If the player drops to the 10th round, there may be an opportunity to take a calculated risk, although caution will be exercised in case performance expectations are not met.
• It’s important to remain flexible when drafting in order to avoid becoming too committed to players who may not deliver. The speaker indicates they wouldn’t add the player to their roster if they find him available in the sixth or seventh round due to a lack of expectation for improvement in performance.

Bo Nix‘s Season Overview 58:45

“Bo Nix at number 10.”

• Bo Nix is being ranked at number 10 with a consistency rank of 11. Reviewing his performance over the season, he had varying success: with 13% of games recognized as great, 38% as good, and another 38% resulting in bust games.
• The need for further improvement is highlighted, with a suggestion that he should not be seen as a reliable consistent pick just yet. However, signs of potential may signal improvement with better offensive options next season.
• The discussion transitions into a playful moment discussing a loud cough interrupting the conversation, which emphasizes the informal nature of the analysis.

Comparison with Other Quarterbacks 01:01:30

“If they add pieces to the offense…I’m just excited about the potential of a guy like this.”

• Comparisons are made between Bo Nix and other rookie quarterbacks like CJ Stroud. The analysis suggests that Nix has shown flashes of high-level play despite not reaching a consistent breakout performance during his rookie year.
• Attention is drawn to the difference in rushing yards between quarterbacks, with Nix expected to provide notable added value through rushing, potentially around 400 yards. This ability may give him an advantage, as fantasy performance relies heavily on touchdowns and rushing stats.
• Nix’s performance trajectory is promising, and speculation about his improvement for next season is encouraged, especially considering the possibility of better offensive support.

Fantasy Points Interpretation 01:04:20

“Touchdowns for fantasy are probably overpowered.”

• The conversation delves deeper into the impacts of fantasy scoring systems on player valuation, arguing that touchdowns amplify a quarterback’s value significantly.
• For Bo Nix, the pace he set towards the end of the season — averaging around 35 touchdowns — positions him as a candidate for more favorable draft consideration in the upcoming season, especially compared to other rookie quarterbacks.
• It is mentioned that both Nix and Stroud had similar rookie seasons, but the discussion stresses that Nix might offer a higher baseline for fantasy performance due to his rushing statistics.

Analysis of Quarterback Performance 01:06:22

“He wasn’t that great last year, even though he was the quarterback seven.”

• The performance of the quarterback in question is scrutinized, emphasizing that despite being ranked as quarterback number seven, his actual production was subpar.
• Injuries to top quarterbacks impacted fantasy rankings, leading to lower-performing quarterbacks being ranked higher than usual.
• The overall average points scored per game by fantasy quarterbacks last season is noted, providing context to the quarterback’s performance metrics.

Fantasy Face-Off Overview 01:06:36

“Fantasy Face-Off presented by DraftKings.”

• The segment titled Fantasy Face-Off is introduced, and it centers on fantasy football predictions for the wild card weekend and divisional round.
• Various player picks are discussed, revealing insights about individual performances leading up to crucial playoff games.
• The commentary reflects a competitive atmosphere, highlighting both correct and incorrect picks made by the analysts, which contributes to an engaging discussion.

Player Predictions and Insights 01:07:31

“My two picks… Josh Allen, more than 239.5 passing yards.”

• Analysts provide their predictions for player performances, with specific focus on key players expected to excel in the upcoming playoff games.
• The choices of Josh Allen and Devante Smith are underlined, with reasons why their stats could exceed projected numbers, reflecting strategic thinking behind fantasy picks.
• Discussion extends to the importance of a player’s health, particularly with AJ Brown dealing with a knee injury, further informing the decision-making process in fantasy sports.

DraftKings Pick Six Game Explanation 01:09:41

“We’re playing DraftKings Pick Six, which is a great game because it’s you against the numbers.”

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• The rules and excitement surrounding the DraftKings Pick Six game are explained, emphasizing its appeal as a statistical challenge.
• Details about team totals and implied scoring predictions add depth to the decision-making for fantasy picks, showcasing the intricate nature of sports betting.
• The noted high scoring environment expected in upcoming matches provides a logical basis for selections made by the players.