Starts of the Week + Week 18 Breakdown, Nasty Boys

Summary:

Week 18 Podcast Overview 00:40

“We’re here! We’ve got our best effort at matchup breakdowns.”

• The hosts discuss the unique scenario of Week 18 in the fantasy football season, particularly noting that competition is not as fierce as in previous weeks due to the season nearing its end.
• Only about 10% of their audience is still engaged in championship games, indicating a significant shift towards an off-season mindset. The hosts empathize with those who are involved, acknowledging the challenges some commissioners present in their leagues.

Matchup Breakdown and News 01:40

“We’ll do our best to walk through the matchups.”

• The hosts commit to providing insights on various matchups for the week, emphasizing that certain games, such as Minnesota-Detroit and Tampa Bay Falcons, will be straightforward in terms of start/sit decisions.
• They also announce a reminder for champions regarding merchandise and trophies, inviting listeners to take advantage of promotional offers like a free championship ring with purchase.

Player and Team Updates 04:26

“The Eagles announced they’re going to rest key starters.”

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• Key team updates are presented, highlighting that the Eagles plan to rest several starters, which could impact fantasy decisions. The hosts reference that Kenny Pickett is a DNP and indicate uncertainty over other players’ statuses, such as Saquon Barkley’s potential desire to play for records versus team priorities.
• They delve into the implications of various players’ conditions, mentioning the likelihood of changes in starting positions and overall strategies for the upcoming matches.

Bryce Young‘s Performance and Matchup 10:26

“Bryce Young has actually been consistent lately, averaging about 18 points a game since the bye week.”

• Bryce Young has shown remarkable consistency, ranking as QB9 in fantasy football since the team’s bye week. His average score per game is approximately 18 points, which has made him a valuable asset heading into the matchup against Atlanta.
• Young has also been enhancing his running game, averaging 5.6 rushing points per game over the last six games, which is among the top six for quarterbacks during that period.
• The Atlanta defense is struggling, which creates a favorable opportunity for Young to shine, making him a solid choice for fantasy managers looking to maximize their potential points.

Rookie Running Backs to Watch 10:59

“I’m going to go combo platter with rookie backups. Blake Corum and Isaac Garindo are really interesting plays this week.”

• In the running back position, Blake Corum and Isaac Garindo are highlighted as rookies who may receive significant workloads in their respective games. McVay has indicated excitement about Corum’s potential, which suggests a strong showing against Seattle.
• Garindo’s performance is particularly noteworthy; he averaged 5.1 yards per carry throughout the season and finished as a top-12 running back the previous week against Detroit. His effective rushing could position him favorably for a backup role next season.

J.K. Dobbins‘ Comeback Potential 12:32

“J.K. Dobbins is going to Las Vegas, where he had a strong showing last week and looks to secure his comeback player of the year title.”

• J.K. Dobbins is projected to perform well against the Chargers after running for 76 yards and scoring a touchdown in his last outing. The matchup is critical as Dobbins looks to solidify his status as a comeback player of the year.
• The Chargers are expected to be favored in this game, yet Dobbins previously excelled in an earlier matchup against them, finishing as RB4 in fantasy points during that week. This indicates he has a good chance of repeating that success, especially as the team is making a playoff push.

Jaylen Warren‘s Rising Role 13:58

“Jalen Warren has been above the Warren line each of the last two weeks, showing consistent performance.”

• Jalen Warren has demonstrated increased involvement in the offense, consistently earning ten fantasy points in his last two outings and garnering 17 opportunities in back-to-back games for the first time in his career.
• With the Bengals’ defense struggling against running backs, Warren presents a potential fantasy goldmine. Additionally, with both him and Najee Harris playing for their futures, this matchup could indicate a power shift in the Steelers’ backfield dynamics moving forward.

Drake London‘s Target Share is Impressive 16:16

“Drake London has been targeted 38% of the team’s first read targets, an excellent statistic for fantasy owners.”

• Drake London is showing remarkable promise as he has received a significant volume of targets in critical matchups, particularly in must-win scenarios for Atlanta.
• His performance under quarterback Michael Pinnock has been notable, placing him among the top 10 wide receivers for the season due to an impressive target share and the favorable matchup against the Panthers.

Noah Gray‘s Opportunity Against Denver 17:17

“Noah Gray is set to step up as a starting tight end with Travis Kelsey likely resting this week.”

• With Travis Kelsey potentially sitting out, Noah Gray will have a unique opportunity to take the lead in the Chiefs’ tight end role. His increased presence on the field and strong performance metrics since Week 11 make him an appealing fantasy option.
• Gray’s matchup against Denver could yield favorable results, especially considering his established rhythm with quarterback Carson Wentz, who is also looking to make a case for his value in the league.

Fantasy Forecast Analysis for the Weekend 19:25

“The Cleveland Browns are knee-deep in trouble.”

• The Cleveland Browns are struggling, projected to have an implied point total of just 12 against the Baltimore Ravens. This indicates a significant challenge for the Browns as they face a formidable opponent, with the Ravens having an implied point total of 29.5 and a 17.5-point spread in their favor.
• The total over-under for the game is set at 41, showcasing the expectation of a relatively low-scoring affair due to the Browns’ offensive struggles. However, the Ravens’ strong offensive projection suggests that they might capitalize on the Browns’ weak performance, further skewing the game dynamics.
• Discussion about individual players indicates that while Ravens’ stars like Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews can be expected to perform well, there is uncertainty regarding whether players like Zay Flowers will see significant usage in a potentially lopsided game.

Player Performances to Watch 22:33

“Jerry Judy had 18 targets last week.”

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• Jerry Judy had an impressive performance with 18 targets, catching 12 passes for 94 yards, indicating his growing role in the offense. Given the absence of tight end David Njoku last week, Judy was able to step up and be impactful.
• Players on struggling teams, such as Deontay Foreman and Judy, may still be viable fantasy options in a rough game. Similarly, players like Khalil Herbert could also be worth a start, especially in a situation where they may capitalize on voluminous plays.
• Players like Brian Robinson Jr. are facing challenges in terms of consistency but can still be valuable in divisional matchups, particularly against teams that have previously defeated them.

Implications for Upcoming Games 26:40

“The Commanders are currently the sixth seed.”

• The Washington Commanders are in a vital position as they aim to solidify their playoff spot, holding the sixth seed and needing a win against the Dallas Cowboys to further their playoff ambitions.
• The stakes are high given that the outcome of this game has playoff implications, not just for the Commanders but also for the Cowboys, who want to position themselves better in the playoff picture.
• Players like Terry McLaurin and Zach Ertz, who have shown great form recently, will be critical in helping their teams achieve necessary victories. Conversely, emerging players should be monitored in terms of injury status and performance expectations.

Early Season Challenges and Player Performances 29:19

“And like, to start the year, it was the first week of the season, Ferguson got hurt.”

• The video discusses the early challenges faced by players at the start of the season, specifically mentioning Ferguson’s injury in the first week, which set a negative tone for his team.
• Following this setback, the player missed the next game but then managed to perform impressively as a top 10 player for three consecutive weeks.
• Unfortunately, the situation worsened for the team when they lost their starting quarterback, Dak Prescott, leading to a significant decline in their performance for the rest of the season.

Player Milestones and Paychecks 29:36

“Jason Ertz needs 90 yards to hit 700. And then it’s a 250K paycheck.”

• The conversation shifts to individual player milestones and their financial implications, highlighting Jason Ertz’s need for 90 yards to reach a specific milestone that would yield a substantial payday of $250,000.
• This highlights the financial motivations that players often have in reaching certain performance targets.

Team Standings and Playoff Implications 29:48

“Just to clarify what I said earlier, the Commanders and Packers have the same record.”

• It is noted that both the Commanders and Packers are in a tight race regarding their playoff hopes, sharing the same record and needing to secure wins to stay competitive.
• The importance of tiebreakers is emphasized, with the Packers currently holding a critical advantage in that aspect.

Rico Dowdle‘s Performance and Team Dynamics 30:11

“Rico Dowdle has a thousand yards rushing. Let that wash over you, people.”

• The discussion highlights Rico Dowdle‘s unexpected success, achieving over a thousand yards rushing this season despite being part of a struggling team.
• The impact of Dak Prescott’s injury is mentioned again as a pivotal moment that changed the dynamics of the team and provided Dowdle with more opportunities.
• Dowdle’s ability to maintain a solid average of 4.7 yards per carry is acknowledged, showcasing his individual talent amid a challenging season for the team.

Coaching and Management Decisions 34:51

“Chicago should be a very attractive job with everything that they’re building over there.”

• The discussion shifts to the Chicago Bears‘ coaching situation, revealing that there are rumors of interest in hiring Ben Johnson, the offensive coordinator for the Detroit Lions.
• The narrative suggests that while Johnson would be an exciting hire, the Bears’ general manager, Ryan Poles, has concerns about losing power if Johnson comes in as head coach.
• The broader implications of hiring a proven coach like Johnson are highlighted, particularly the risk-reward balance in terms of job security for management.

Tennessee Titans Quarterback Situation 38:12

“Tennessee set up to take a quarterback; they have the number two pick right now.”

• The Tennessee Titans recently faced a tough moment in their season, especially after their week 12 performance against another team. They are currently positioned to take a quarterback as they hold the number two overall pick in the upcoming draft. This scenario casts uncertainty on the effectiveness of their current quarterback lineup, which could involve both Mason Rudolph and Will Levis in upcoming games.

Joe Mixon‘s Rushing Yard Bonus 38:34

“Joe Mixon needs 107 rushing yards to earn a $250,000 bonus.”

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• Joe Mixon is on the brink of a financial bonus, needing 107 rushing yards in his next game to secure an additional $250,000. However, there is skepticism about whether he will achieve this target, particularly given that he is an older running back who the team may choose to rest. The uncertainty around the performance of other players, including tight ends, adds to the cautious approach many have regarding Mixon’s anticipated rushing yards.

Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars Matchup 40:29

“This is the worst game you can play after getting eliminated the week before in embarrassing fashion.”

• The matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and the Jacksonville Jaguars is clouded by recent disappointments. After an embarrassing elimination from playoff contention, the Colts, currently favorites in the game, will likely face a very low morale. The over/under for this game stands at 45, implying a potentially unremarkable performance given both teams’ struggles. The starting of Joe Flacco and the presence of key offensive players might slightly elevate the expectations for this otherwise low-stake game.

New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills Backups 44:21

“Buffalo’s backups are taking on New England’s starters, but they still want to win.”

• The upcoming game between the Buffalo Bills and the New England Patriots features a dramatic lineup shift, with the Bills preparing to play their backups against the Patriots’ starters. New England is keen to win, especially since securing a loss would affect their draft pick chances. This situation creates a difficult challenge for both teams; while the Patriots want to improve their standing, the Bills are more concerned with resting their key players ahead of future games.

Competitive Spirit in Sports 47:36

“They aren’t playing for anything but pride, and neighbors want to be the best.”

• The speaker emphasizes the importance of pride among competitors, suggesting that players are highly motivated even when there are no championship stakes on the line.
• The concept of “neighbors” refers to athletes wanting to outperform their peers and be recognized as great, highlighting a common characteristic among competitors— the drive to prove oneself.

Players’ Aspirations 47:43

“He wants to be one of the great rookies of all time for the Giants.”

• The discussion acknowledges a player’s aspiration to join the ranks of the legendary rookies associated with the Giants.
• It reflects the high standards and legacy that players aim for in their careers, underscoring the significance of historical performance in carving out one’s identity in sports.

Fantasy Sports Insights 47:50

“I like neighbors this week. I like neighbors this week. A lot.”

• The repeated endorsement of a player hints at their expected performance and value in fantasy sports this week.
• This illustrates the critical nature of player selection in fantasy leagues and how expert opinions can sway decisions.

Promotions and Offers 47:54

“Download the new DraftKings Pick Six app now and use the code ‘ballers’.”

• The video promotes a specific application encouraging viewers to engage with fantasy sports through promotions, hinting at strategic partnerships with brands.
• The emphasis on promotional codes and bonuses serves as a marketing tactic designed to incentivize new customers to participate.

Upcoming Show Highlights 48:03

“We’ve got more matchups, the Wheel of Shame, and our fantasy face-off once again.”

• The hosts tease upcoming episodes featuring competitive segments, maintaining audience engagement by hinting at exciting content.
• This builds anticipation for the next installment, which promises not only discussions on matchups but also playful and light-hearted segments that maintain entertainment value.