Starts of the Week + Week 16 Breakdown, FULL TILT!

Summary:

Tilt and decision making 05:42

• The hosts discuss the emotional impact of making decisions for their fantasy football teams in the playoffs.
• They mention the importance of pivoting strategies and recount some past experiences where their decisions had significant consequences.

“I mean, part of it guys is the fact both of you are out.”

Bengals vs. Steelers 13:43

• Bengals have won three straight games, while Steelers have lost three straight games.
• Bengals quarterback has been performing well with QB4, QB4, and QB8 finishes in the past three games.
• Steelers are two-point home underdogs.
• Steelers’ offense has struggled to move the football effectively.

“Bengals have been on a winning streak, while the Steelers have been struggling to perform.”

Buffalo Bills vs. Los Angeles Chargers 20:00

• Buffalo Bills are 8-6 and considered resurgent.
• Los Angeles Chargers have been struggling and are not good at stopping quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, or tight ends.
• Josh Allen, the Bills’ quarterback, is the QB1 of the year and has been running as well as any running back.
• Stefon Diggs has been disappointing but still a great start.
• Gabe Davis should not be started.

“But the Chargers are not good at stopping quarterbacks, running backs water receivers tight ends. So yes I mean I think you Josh Allen‘s the quarterback one on the year obviously he’s in. Diggs has been poor disappointing. There’s no way you go away from him. I think he’s a great start this week. Now Gabe Davis should not be on a roster.”

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Dalton Kincaid situation 22:35

• Dalton Kincaid had a goose last week.
• The speaker is trying to avoid a situation similar to Dalton Kincaid‘s.

“I am trying to avoid the Kincaid situation.”

Chargers’ offensive situation 23:03

• The Chargers may not need to throw the football a lot in their upcoming game.
• There are two tight ends in their offensive set now.
• Austin Ekeler did not perform well last week.
• It may be risky to start Joshua Palmer with Easton Stick at quarterback.

“They’re not throwing the football a ton. They might not need to in this game.” “There’s two tight ends in the set now.” “I don’t really want to start Joshua Palmer for Easton Stick.” “Hard to really start anybody because if they can shut down Dallas, they can certainly shut down this offense.”

Ty Chandler vs. Austin Ekeler 23:58

• Ty Chandler has volume and is involved in the passing game.
• Austin Ekeler has none of those things and has been getting the ball a lot recently.
• There is some confidence in starting Ty Chandler over Austin Ekeler.

“Ty Chandler is volume pass-catching.” “Chandler has volume. He’s been getting the ball a ton.” “I have no confidence to play Eckler.”

Colts vs. Falcons matchup 26:21

• The Indianapolis Colts and Atlanta Falcons are playing each other.
• The game is in a dome, and the Colts play fast.
• The Falcons perform better at home.
• Taylor Heinicke is taking over for the Falcons.

“The Indianapolis Colts currently take on the Atlanta Falcons.” “The Colts play fast, and the Falcons play much better at home.” “Taylor Heinicke taking over again for the Falcons.”

Confidence in Bijan Robinson 27:27

• Bijon Robinson had negative fantasy points last week.
• He only had limited opportunities due to bad weather conditions.
• Despite the poor performance, there is still confidence in Bijon Robinson.

“Bijon Robinson had a negative fantasy points week because of bad weather.” “I think some of the reason that the opportunities went away because of the weather.” “Give me your confidence level zero to a hundred in B. John… eighty-eight.”

Drake London‘s performance 28:44

• Drake London had a breakout performance followed by a disappointing week.
• Confidence in Drake London is at fifty percent.

“Drake London had a breakout performance then last week happened.” “My confidence in Drake London is fifty percent.”

Jonathan Taylor vs. Ty Chandler 30:06

• Jonathan Taylor is expected to lead the Colts’ backfield.
• Ty Chandler has a tough matchup against the Atlanta Falcons, but there is more confidence in Jonathan Taylor.

“John the Taylor is going to be the entire backfield.” “Taylor’s matchup is against the Atlanta Falcons.” “I’m more secure in Taylor.”

Wide receiver options for Colts 30:42

• Michael Pittman‘s status is uncertain due to a concussion.
• If Pittman is out, there may be opportunities for Josh Downs or Alec Pierce.
• The speaker does not want to play the game of guessing targets in the absence of Pittman.

“We’re still monitoring whether he [Michael Pittman] will make it back.” “If Michael Pittman sits, there’s going to be a real temptation to play Josh Downs or Alec Pierce.” “I personally do not want to play that game.”

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“I am trying to avoid the Kincaid situation.”

Targets have vanished 31:34

• In Week 12, there was a weird 13 target game for someone.
• The game wasn’t good despite the high target count.
• The player ended up with only 43 yards.

“Targets have vanished.”

Colts defense in play 31:52

• With Pittman gone, there is no reason to start this player.
• The Colts defense is a good option for this week.
• They are fourth in fantasy points per game.

“I need to put him in.”

Taylor Heinicke in streaming category 32:17

• Taylor Heineken fits the streaming quarterback category.
• He is a better option compared to Nick Mullins.
• If choosing between Taylor Heineken and two other quarterbacks, go with Mullins.

“Taylor Heineken fits the streaming category for me.”

Seahawks vs. Titans 32:37

• Seattle Seahawks (7-7) take on the Tennessee Titans (5-9).
• Seattle is favored by 2.5 points on the road.
• The over-under is 41.5.
• The Seahawks are still fighting for a playoff spot.

“Seattle on the road minus two and a half.”

Titans weak run defense 33:06

• Tennessee’s run defense has been weaker in the past month.
• They lost an all-pro defensive lineman, impacting their performance.
• They have allowed 95 rushing yards per game in three of the last four games.

“We’ve seen the Tennessee stout run defense be a lot weaker over the last month.”

Deandre Hopkins in play 34:50

• Deandre Hopkins had a kind of terrible game but had a good throw that could have been a touchdown.
• Seattle has been vulnerable in the passing game.
• Hopkins could have a safe floor but may lack a high ceiling this week.

“Hopkins is a fairly safe floor.”

Ryan Tannehill‘s poor performance 36:05

• Ryan Tannehill‘s performance has not been good this season.
• Hopkins had a better performance when Tannehill was struggling.
• Hopkins may not have the same level of productivity with Tannehill.

“Tannehill was averaging 188 yards and two total passing touchdowns.”

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Set lineups with more information 38:39

• Consider the performance of players in Thursday and Saturday games before making lineup decisions.
• Friday’s performance can provide more information on matchups.
• Avoid playing flex players on Thursday or Saturday to allow for informed decisions later in the weekend.

“Set your lineup and lock in your positional players.”

“Good reminder to set lineups with more information.”

Confidence in Derrick Henry 39:43

• Derek Henry had a fantastic performance last week.
• Seattle has been 30th against running backs in the past six weeks.
• Henry should be a confident start in fantasy football.

“Derek Henry confidence this week one to a hundred sixty-nine.”

Josh’s Recent Performance 40:36

• Despite Josh’s recent bad game, he has been consistently performing well this season.
• It’s not appropriate to base decisions solely on one bad game.
• Josh has been a top fantasy running back in previous weeks.

“Just look at those pop Josh has. If anyone wants to know, he’s probably fine. He’s the running back eight on the course of the season. The recency bias of this last really bad game is not the right approach.” 40:36

Benefits of Tajae Spears in the Running Game 40:55

• Weeks 13 and 14 were great for Josh, finishing as the running back three and the running back ten.
• During those weeks, Taje Spears was also performing well, being in the top twenty running backs.
• When the team runs the ball effectively, it benefits both Josh and Taje.

“Weeks 13 and 14, in terms of fantasy finish, Taje Spears was also in the top twenty on those weeks. When they were running the football well, it benefited both. It’s basically the offense.” 40:55

Detroit vs Minnesota Matchup 41:45

• Detroit is favored in this matchup.
• If Detroit wins, they will clinch the NFC North division title.
• The game has significant playoff implications.
• Detroit has historically performed well in dome games.

“Huge game playoff implications if the Lions win the ball game, they clinched the NFC north. It would be their first division title since 1993. They play well in domes.” 41:45

Start Ty Chandler with Caution 44:50

• Ty Chandler‘s range of outcomes is more severe than expected.
• The Lions defense has been successful in shutting down the run.
• Chandler’s floor is low, but he has a high ceiling.

“It’s worth noting that Ty Chandler‘s range of outcomes is more severe than you would think. The Lions defense, man, they shut the run down.” 44:50

Jared Goff vs Joe Flacco 45:32

• Jared Goff is favored for the starting quarterback position.
• However, Goff’s consistency has been an issue throughout the season.
• Consider Joe Flacco as an alternative, especially if you prioritize touchdown passes.

“It’s hard after what Goff just did, five passing touchdowns against Denver, the number one quarterback on the week. But his consistency is a C. You can never put too much confidence in Jared Goff.” 46:05

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Monitor Game Scheme for Amon-Ra St. Brown 48:04

• Amon-Ra St. Brown‘s performance might be affected by the matchup scheme.
• Scott Barrett’s statistics suggest a potentially bad game for St. Brown.
• Despite the matchup, St. Brown would still be a viable starter.

“I found it interesting that he (Scott Barrett) was saying it projects to be potentially a really bad game for Amon-Ra St. Brown.” 48:04

Discussing the Minnesota Jets 48:53

• The Minnesota Jets, who were expected to have a strong defense this year, have underperformed.
• Despite their changes in the offseason, the Jets have become a shocking team.
• Their defense is now completely different and has turned out to be fantastic.
• The Jets seemed like a team that was going to “trust the process,” but they have exceeded expectations.

“The defense from years gone by should be gone. They’re a completely different defense and they were like a shocking team.” 49:14

Surprising Teams in the NFL this Year 49:40

• The Houston Culture is considered one of the most surprising teams in the NFL this year.
• The Minnesota Vikings were expected to be good but have been a surprise with their losses and quarterback changes.
• The Washington Commanders, with four quarterbacks after Cousins, have had a disappointing season.

“I think the Culture… Yeah, number one. Very high. But I would… Yeah, I’d stick with Houston. Yeah. I mean those are the two that I thought of. Not Minnesota.” 49:50

Evaluating the New York Jets 50:29

• The New York Jets are having a disappointing season, which is reflected in their sportsbook line and low over/under.
• Aaron Rodgers has been elevated to the team but has decided not to play.
• Starting quarterback Zach Wilson is not practicing due to a concussion, and if he doesn’t play, Trevor Simeon will start.
• Confidence in starting wide receiver Garrett Wilson decreases with Trevor Simeon as the quarterback.

“This is a game that has a 37 point over under. So yes the jets are at home and yes they’re favored but it’s a really really low over under and I don’t think either of us or any of us expect the jets to come out here and score a bunch of points.” 53:21

Antonio Gibson and the Washington Commanders‘ Offense 54:43

• Antonio Gibson had limited carries last week, with Chris Rodriguez also getting significant playing time.
• Gibson’s involvement in the passing game gives him flex potential.
• The New York Jets defense is vulnerable to fantasy running backs.
• It is advised to bench all Washington Commanders‘ wide receivers due to uncertainty of performance against the Jets.

“I know that the Jets can be beaten on the ground. Are you okay with Gibson as a flex? Yeah, I mean I think as a flex it’s okay but it’s scary and I’d be benching every wide receiver.” 55:53

Starters and game analysis 56:20

• Curtis seems to be the preferred choice for finishing the game. 56:27
• The choice between Hopkins and Curtis is discussed. 56:28
• Green Bay is favored over Carolina in terms of points. 56:31
• Carolina has struggled to score points in recent games. 56:57

“I am being backed into a day one winner, now they are winners.”

Joe Flacco as a start of the week 01:04:29

• Joe Flacco is a good start of the week.
• He has been performing consistently well.
• The Houston defense is weak against quarterbacks.

“I would be happy with two hundred and two from Joe Flacco this week.”

Justin Fields as a great play 01:05:47

• Justin Fields is a great play this week.
• The Bears are playing at a fast pace and Fields has been performing well.
• The Arizona defense is struggling and allowing a high number of points.

“The matchup at home in a favorite game against Arizona field.”

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Baker Mayfield as a good streamer 01:06:18

• Baker Mayfield is a good streaming option this week.
• He has more top twelve finishes than Dak Prescott.
• Jacksonville has a weak defense against quarterbacks.

“I think that Baker is a really good stream this week.”

Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane as a combo package 01:06:53

• Raheem Moster and Devon HN are a good combination to start this week.
• Dallas defense was torn apart last week.
• HN is being targeted frequently and has a good chance to perform well.

“I’m taking the combo package of Raheem Moster in Devon HN against Dallas.”

Bijan Robertson and Breece Hall with great matchups 01:07:21

• Bijon Robertson and Breeze Hall have favorable matchups this week.
• Robertson faces a weak Colts defense.
• Hall faces a struggling commanders defense.

“Bijon and Breeze will do for you what they could not do for me.”

Zeke as a good play 01:08:44

• Zeke is a good play this week.
• He has been getting a good volume of opportunities.
• Denver defense is not strong against running backs.

“I’m playing Zeke.”

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Stefon Diggs as a must start 01:09:51

• Stefan Diggs is a must-start this week.
• The Chargers defense has been allowing a lot of passing yards.
• Diggs has a good chance to take advantage of the matchup.

“Stefan Diggs is a must start this week.”

Amari Cooper with a strong stack 01:10:10

• Amari Cooper is a good stack with Joe Flacco.
• Cooper has been getting a significant number of targets.
• Houston defense is weak against wide receivers.

“I don’t see a world where you could bench Amari Cooper.”

Tee Higgins as the last man standing 01:11:00

• T Higgins is the last man standing for the Bengals.
• With Jamar Chase expected to miss, Higgins will have more opportunities.

“I’m going with T Higgins.”

Tee Higgins without Ja’Marr Chase 01:11:21

• T Higgins performs better without Jamar Chase in the lineup.
• In the four games without Jamar Chase, T Higgins has seen an increase in targets, receiving yards, and fantasy points.
• His targets have gone up from 7 to 9, receiving yards from 62 to 93, and fantasy points from 11 to 15.5.

“And in the four games that we’ve seen T Higgins without Jamar Chase, the numbers are better from seven targets to nine, sixty-two receiving yards up to ninety-three, eleven fantasy points up to fifteen and a half.”

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