Dynasty Fantasy Football: 2024 Rookie WR Class Review
On the most recent Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast, Betz, Mike, and I reviewed the 2024 Rookie WR class.
I approached this review exercise like an annual dynasty-focused checkup with these questions in mind:
- What did this player accomplish as a rookie?
- What is the historical context of this player’s performance factoring in NFL Draft Capital?
- What questions emerge about their dynasty value moving forward?
These are essentially the “show notes” from our discussion from the podcast if you want to reference them later and bookmark this rookie review. For the full discussion, check out the episode.
2024 Rookie WR Class Review
Let’s review the rookie WRs by order of fantasy finish.
Brian Thomas Jr. | Round 1 Overall 23 | JAX
Current Age: 22.2 || Rookie Drafts: WR4 || Sept. Dynasty Startups: WR26 || Redraft: WR46
Stats That Matter
17 games – 129 targets for 87/1282/10– Finished as the WR4
It was a monster rookie season ranking 3rd in Receiving Yards, 5th in DEEP Targets, 4th in YAC, and 2nd in Dominator Rating (43.6%).
He was used in the screen game a ton including 17-of-17 on on targets behind the line of scrimmage while averaging 10.2 YAC/Reception, 4th best in the NFL.
every brian thomas jr catch from 2024 📽️
(before your brain turns to mush this offseason and you forget how good he was) pic.twitter.com/rCCEqzFHMZ
— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) January 14, 2025
Historical Context
Comparing to the last decade of rookie WRs (Rounds 1-3)
- TPRR– 85th percentile
- YPRR- 97th percentile
- Tgt %- 92nd percentile
- Zone YPRR- 99th percentile (only Tank Dell and Odell Beckham better)
Future Dynasty Questions
- How high should he go in dynasty WR ranks?
- Tier 1– Chase & Jefferson
- Tier 2– Amon-Ra, CeeDee, Nabers (HERE?)
- Tier 3– Puka, Nico, Drake London
Malik Nabers | Round 1 Overall 6 | NYG
Current Age: 21.4 Rookie Drafts: WR2 || Sept. Dynasty Startups: WR10 || Redraft: WR24
Stats That Matter
17 games – 166 targets for 109/1204/7– Finished as the WR7
The counting stats are historic. The metric stats are over-the-top elite.
- 166 targets is bonkers (while missing 2 games). It breaks the previous record (Garrett Wilson– 147)
- 109 receptions is MOST EVER for a rookie WR
- 46.6% Dominator Rating — #1 in the NFL
- 23.8 Expected Fantasy Points per Game FPPG — #1 in the NFL
- 41.1% first-read target share — #1 in the NFL
Historical Context
Comparing to the last decade of rookie WRs (Rounds 1-3)
- TPRR– 100th percentile
- YPRR- 91st percentile
- Tgt %- 100th percentile
Future Dynasty Questions
Does a QB change anything about his dynasty value?
Ladd McConkey | Round 2 Overall 34 | LAC
Current Age: 23.2 || Rookie Drafts: WR6 || Sept Dynasty Startups: WR31 || Redraft: WR44
Stats That Matter
17 games – 110 targets for 82/1155/7– Finished as the WR12
From Week 8 on, he was the WR8 in fantasy.
It was an efficient rookie season ranking 9th in Receiving Yards, 7th in YPRR, and 8th in Yards per Team Pass Attempt. He ranked 3rd in the NFL in Receiving Yards on Play-Action Passes behind only Chase & Jefferson
After the Chargers Week 5 bye:
- 31.5% First-Read target share
- aDOT moved from 8.8 < 10.5
- 13th among all WRs with 100+ routes in FP/RR
Historical Context
Over the last decade, the only three other rookie WRs had a higher YPRR.
Comparing to the last decade of rookie WRs (Rounds 1-3)
- TPRR– 80th percentile
- YPRR- 4th best over last decade
- Zone YPRR- 5th best over last decade
Future Dynasty Questions
Would you rather have JSN or Ladd McConkey?
Marvin Harrison Jr. | Round 1 Overall 4 | ARI
Current Age: 22.4 Rookie Drafts: WRx/x in SFlex || Dynasty Startups: WRx || Redraft: WRx
Stats That Matter
17 games – 114 targets for 62/885/8– Finished as the WR28
What a wild ride of emotions: Week 1– Is he slow? Is he trying? He’s done. Week 2– the WR1 overall
Lack of Consistency was a Killer
- 7 Games with a TD – 16.9 fantasy points per game
- 10 games without a TD– 4.7 fantasy points per game
Not the engine of the offense (First read share)
- Trey McBride: 33.7% (T-7th best in the league with Justin Jefferson)
- Marv: 27.1%
With a 14.1 aDOT and 68.5% of his targets ending up 10+ yards down the field, we didn’t see a ton of “layup” throws for him. To compare: Nabers- 43% /BTJ- 48%
Historical Context
Comparable Tgt Shares in Year 1: Garrett Wilson– 22%, Amari Cooper– 21.6%, AJ Brown– 19.5%, CD Lamb- 19%
The closest statistical rookie seasons over the last decade:
Future Dynasty Questions
How do we find the right balance of not overreacting but assessing him rightly?
Xavier Worthy | Round 1 Overall 28 | KC
Current Age: 21.7 || Rookie Drafts: WR5 || Dynasty Startups: WR18 (after Wk1) || Redraft: WR37
Stats That Matter
17 games – 98 targets for 59/638/6– Finished as the WR33
What a wild ride of emotions
- Week 1– 2 TDs… look how fast he is
- Weeks 2-14– What is he in this offense?
- Fantasy Playoffs– He is who we thought he was! 26% Tgt Share over final 3 games and 80+ % of snaps
69% of his targets were <10 yards
- Weeks 1-8: 11.0-yard aDOT, 33.3% air yards share
- Weeks 9-17: 8.6-yard aDOT, 21% air yards share
Historical Context
The closest YPRR rookie seasons over the last decade
Future Dynasty Questions
Do you view him as a high upside WR3? Will he ever be anything more?
Jalen McMillan | Round 3 Overall 92 | TB
Current Age: 23.1 || Rookie Drafts: WR13 || Dynasty Startups: WR60 || Redraft: WR81
Stats That Matter
14 games – 57 targets for 37/461/8– Finished as the WR53
Despite coming into the NFL as a predominantly slot-only player at Washington, McMillan’s usage needs some context. Before Chris Godwin‘s injury, he was mostly irrelevant.
| Weeks 1-13 | Weeks 14-18 | |
| Games | 8 | 5 |
| Receptions | 13 | 24 |
| FPPG | 3.7 | 17.4 |
| Route % | 54% | 80% |
| TPRR | 14% | 20% |
| Wide % | 75% | 68% |
| Slot % | 24% | 32% |
Historical Context
Insane Final 5 Game Stretch
- 7 TDs over his final 5 games are 2nd MOST for a rookie WR behind only Randy Moss.
- 41% of his fantasy points this year came via TDs, an unsustainable number.
Rookie WRs over Last Decade w/ 7+ Rec TDs on <70 Targets
2014 Martavis Bryant (PIT)
2018 Anthony Miller (CHI)
2020 Gabriel Davis (BUF)
2022 Christian Watson (GB)
2022 Jahan Dotson (WAS)
2024 Jalen McMillan (TB)— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) January 14, 2025
Future Dynasty Questions
- Will he be overvalued for this end of season run?
- What does Tampa Bay do about Godwin?
Other Rookie WR Questions from Dyno Podcast
For a full discussion, we discussed these players at length on the podcast.
Do we give Rome Odunze a free pass?
Put these 3 in order for dynasty preference.
Can they return from the grave?
Ja’Lynn Polk put together a historically bad rookie season.
- 0.38 YPRR- WORST among Round 1-3 WRs with 70+ Routes Run
- 0.9 YAC per reception – WORST among all WRs
- 38.7% Catch Rate- WORST among all WRs
- 43.4 PFF Grade- WORST among all WRs
Adonai Mitchell is this year’s Dontayvion Wicks: Gets Open, But Good Luck Catching the Ball.
The Colts have a type through every election cycle. pic.twitter.com/ygXQzzDOFK
— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) January 14, 2025