NFL DFS Vegas Report for Divisional Round (Fantasy Football)
NFL DFS tournaments are all about finding ceiling performance from players in our lineup. In order to maximize upside and correlation, we can use Vegas totals and game lines to help us identify game environments that may help produce these ceiling performances we’re looking for in GPPs. The goal of this article each week is to identify which games are most likely to provide the scoring environment we’re looking for in order to build game stacks in DFS.
On the surface, it sounds simple, but there’s more to this process than simply logging into a sportsbook and picking the games with the highest total. We need to be conscious of which games are likely to be most popular for DFS, which may be undervalued, and those that have more downside than the market perceives.
For the Divisional round weekend, we have a four-game slate to break down. I’ll touch on each game environment from a DFS perspective. Be sure to tune into the DFS Podcast on Friday where Kyle Borgognoni and I will be discussing each game in detail.
Note: Lines taken below from DraftKings Sportsbook are accurate at the time of publishing.
Highest Team Implied Totals for the Divisional Round
Fantasy points are most strongly correlated to team implied totals (how many points Vegas expects each team to score). As a result, it makes sense to look at players from the following teams, especially in cash games. This does not necessarily mean these are automatically the best games to stack in tournaments.
1. Kansas City Chiefs (28.3)
2. Green Bay Packers (26.5)
3. Buffalo Bills (26.3)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (25.8)
5. Tennessee Titans (25.3)
6. Los Angeles Rams (22.8)