NFL DFS Tournament Takes & Leverage Points: Week 5 (Fantasy Football)

DET @ ARI should be the starting point, not a game we avoid simply because everyone likes it. 54.5 O/U is 8.5 points above the next-highest main-slate game, SF @ SEA at 46.0. That is a meaningful gap, and DET’s 30-point implied total gives us a clear reason to prioritize its scoring opportunities. 

But it is going to attract plenty of attention, and the 54.5-point total makes it pretty easy to understand why. I want exposure here, but that does not mean every lineup needs to follow the same shopping list. Good leverage comes from strong ceiling combinations, not dart throws. We can use a different combination of receivers, attach the QB to a popular piece, or build around another game while keeping a player from this one. Being different is useful. Being different just to watch everyone else score, not so much.

• Which chalk deserves the attention?
• Where are we giving up too much projection just to be different?
• And how can we turn those answers into better tournament lineups?

Let us discuss.

Slate Overview

QB and DST are where I am most comfortable moving away from the crowd. I can keep Gibbs or Swift and build around a different passing game rather than forcing a cheap receiver I barely like. McCaffrey and Taylor also make me think twice about automatically taking the popular RB combination, while Bowers and Kittle give me reasons to reconsider McBride.

Darnold/JSN with Kittle coming back is one combination I keep circling. I do not mind taking shots with a “healthy” Mike Evans either. Burrow/Chase is another, provided Chase is cleared. Either lets me keep a DET-ARI piece without needing that game to disappoint.

Ownership Notes

Quarterback

• My first question is whether I actually need to move away from Brissett or Goff. Brissett makes the expensive pieces easier to fit, but Goff has the slightly better Footballers projection at lower ownership. I lean Goff when the salary works rather than automatically taking the discount.
• Then I see Burrow below 3% and start thinking about what happens if CIN scores through the air instead of Brown. Burrow/Chase is the combination I want to explore, provided Chase is cleared. That is a ceiling bet I can get behind, not just a different name in the QB slot.
• Darnold requires a little more conviction because his projection sits well behind the chalk. I like Darnold/JSN with Kittle coming back, but I need that game to become a back-and-forth passing affair.
• Maye is another option I keep coming back to. His Footballers ceiling is nearly identical to Burrow’s, and Maye/Doubs with Bowers on the other side gives me another combination worth building out. I would compare the complete stacks before deciding which QB I prefer.
• And Bagent at $4,700? I understand the appeal, but I want to see what those savings actually buy. Bagent/Burden is worth building out, then comparing the whole lineup against a Brissett or Goff version rather than assuming cheaper is better. I actually love Rome Odunze this week. He is on the field all the time and is an excellent run blocker. His draft capital will pay off soon in that offense, no matter who the QB is. 
• With Daniels, I am interested in a build that does not need a full game stack. A rushing TD is one way he could separate without bringing two receivers along. At less than 4% ownership, I would explore that outcome before forcing extra WAS pieces into the lineup. The field never plays naked QBs, so that is leverage alone if you nail the other pieces. 

IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

• Love also belongs in this conversation. His Footballers projection is close enough to Maye and Burrow that I want to see what the cheaper salary does for the rest of the lineup. Love/Golden or Love/Kraft gives me a starting point without needing to force both pass catchers into every build.
• Nix is where I would make a more deliberate bet against the projections. He costs almost the same as Brissett but projects substantially lower, so I need a reason beyond ownership. Nix/Waddle is a bet on DEN getting its TDs through the air, and I would keep that as a secondary tournament build.
• Purdy makes me double-check how much I actually prefer Darnold. His Footballers projection is higher at lower ownership, although he costs more. Purdy/Kittle with JSN coming back lets me keep the same game bet while changing which passing offense I need to do more of the scoring.
• It would take some real stones to play Shough against MIN, but if he can start getting more rushing production like we expected, he deserves a look in the lottos.
• Cousins/Tre Tucker is a stack I would save for a few of my more aggressive builds. I am betting on LV getting its TDs through the air instead of the backfield, with Doubs coming back. 

Running Back

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• Come on down, Mr. Gibbs. My first instinct is not to find a reason to fade him. He is one of the players I want those cheaper pieces to help me afford. I would rather change the passing stack around him than assume every tournament lineup needs a different answer at RB.
• With Swift, the appeal is the potential workload, but I do not want to treat a bigger role as a guaranteed ceiling game. I am comfortable playing him while getting different elsewhere. 
• Mike Washington is where I need the Jeanty news before committing to the discount. If Jeanty sits, I still want to know whether Washington gets a true lead role or just the first turn in a committee. The salary is appealing, but I do not want to confuse cheap with automatic.
• Braelon Allen gives me another way to save without making Washington the foundation of every lineup. Allen/Jets DST is a combination I would consider when betting on NYJ controlling the game. I would not force the defense into every Allen lineup, but those selections at least benefit from the same game script.
• The discounted backs make McCaffrey more appealing to me, not less. I would rather use one value play to buy his ceiling than let the savings talk me out of an expensive RB altogether. McCaffrey/JSN is a pairing I want to build around without necessarily adding a QB.
• Taylor is the other reason I am not automatically filling both RB spots with value. Taylor with Metcalf coming back gives me a different game to bet on while leaving room for DET-ARI pieces. I am looking for a Taylor TD game with PIT needing to answer through the air.

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• With Chase Brown, I want to separate my interest in CIN from my interest in its passing stack. There is a version of this game where Brown gets the touchdowns I needed from Burrow/Chase. I would explore that outcome in some non-Burrow builds rather than trying to cover every CIN scoring possibility in one lineup.
• Aaron Jones feels like the middle ground I do not want to overlook while debating the expensive backs and the discounts. Jones/Olave lets me bet on MIN getting its TDs on the ground while NO answers through the air. That is a combination worth comparing with the more obvious RB builds.
• Jaylen Warren makes me pause before automatically taking Swift’s discount. I would build the Warren version and see whether I still like the receivers, rather than dismissing him because the salary is less convenient. 
• Emanuel Wilson is useful, but I do not want to play him just because he fits the last open spot. I prefer him in a build betting on SEA controlling the game rather than automatically adding him to Darnold/JSN stacks. That gives me separate lineups built around different ways SEA could score.
• Marshawn Lloyd is a bet on GB scoring on the ground instead of through Love. I would pair him with Burden and play for a game where GB gets ahead, and CHI has to throw. I need the goal-line chances to go his way, and maybe he can show us that he is actually a competent football player.

Wide Receiver

• I am not looking for a reason to fade Amon-Ra. I would rather change the stack around him than force a different receiver into a lineup I like less. The question is whether I am comfortable with the entire lineup being popular, not whether Amon-Ra is too popular by himself. He will likely need a two-TD game to pay off in GPPs. 
• Michael Wilson makes me think about how many times I am building the same DET-ARI lineup. I can play him without automatically attaching Brissett and McBride. Using Wilson opposite a Goff stack is one way to keep him while betting on DET doing more of the scoring through the air.
• With JSN, I am willing to spend for a game that forces everyone else to play catch-up. Darnold/JSN with Kittle coming back is still one of my favorite combinations to explore. I also like JSN opposite McCaffrey when I want exposure to that game without committing to either QB.
• Chase stays conditional for me until he is cleared and expected to handle his normal workload. From there, I am interested in both the Burrow stack and Chase by himself. We do not need to predict the entire CIN offense correctly to take a shot on Chase being the receiver who breaks the slate, especially after being Q all week. 
• Nico Collins. I do not need TEN to turn this into a shootout if Collins catches a couple of TDs before the game gets away. I would rather play him alone than force a TEN receiver I otherwise would not consider.
• I keep coming back to Olave when I look outside the obvious game stacks. Pairing him with Aaron Jones lets me bet on MIN scoring on the ground and NO answering through the air. I do not need both QBs to have big games for those two pieces to work together.

Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

• Jameson Williams lets me change my bet without leaving DET-ARI. Goff/Jameson/LaPorta is one version I would build without Amon-Ra, especially in lineups that also fade Gibbs.
• With Tre’ Harris, I want to separate needing salary relief from actually wanting the player. I would build the Harris lineup first, then see whether moving away improves my chances of a big score or simply lowers ownership. If McConkey sits, I would revisit that decision rather than stubbornly sticking with the pivot.
• Malik Washington is someone I would compare directly with Harris before settling on my cheaper receiver. In Burrow/Chase builds, he also gives me a reason to want MIA answering rather than just hoping CIN keeps throwing. Outside those stacks, I want to see whether paying the difference costs me a player I care more about.
• For a dart, Rashid Shaheed gives me another answer to the Darnold question. What if I am right about SEA throwing for TDs but wrong about which receiver catches them? I would use Shaheed in a few Darnold builds, understanding that I am betting on explosive plays rather than steady production.

Tight End

• McBride is still my first look when paying up. I would change another position before forcing a TE fade in a lineup I already like.
• Bowers is my preferred alternative. I want to bet on him outscoring McBride, not just roster him because he is less popular.
• Kittle is my first bring-back in Darnold/JSN stacks. I especially like that combination when I am fading McCaffrey and betting on SF throwing its TDs. 
• LaPorta stays in my Goff pool. Leaving out Gibbs gives that stack a clear bet on where the DET touchdowns land.
• Tyler Warren interests me in Taylor-fade builds. I am betting on IND needing to throw and Warren finishing those drives.
• Likely works opposite Daniels. I would consider that pairing before forcing a more expensive NYG receiver into the lineup. Remember, he has a 30% target share and leads all TEs. 
• Gadsden is my pay-down target. I would build some lineups with him as my only LAC pass catcher rather than automatically adding Harris.
• TE Dart: Hockenson. Murray/Hockenson with Olave is my shot at MIN scoring through the air instead of through Jones.

DST

• Remember, defenses are as stupid as people who think they can be a professional blackjack player. 
• HOU is my first look with salary available, but I am not sacrificing a receiver I love to get there. They have been AWFUL this year, but HC Ryans is taking over defensive play calling, and that dude knows ball. 
• MIN fits my Jones builds that bet on NO falling behind, rather than my MIN-NO shootout stacks.
• DEN is where I would turn in lineups betting against the LAC passing game (which is not a bad bet…poor Bolts) 
• NYJ pairs with Allen when I want the running game and defense driving the same lineup.
• CLE is the other side of that bet, with NYJ falling behind and having to throw.
• TEN is a way to preserve an expensive stack, not a defense I am building around. They are fine in cash but may be a bit overowned in GPPs. 
• MIA belongs in my aggressive CIN-fade builds, not beside Burrow/Chase just because the salary fits.
• DST Dart: PIT. I would pair PIT with Warren and bet on a lead forcing IND into predictable passing situations.

Late Swap

Final Thoughts

1. Favorite Stack: Look no further than the second-highest total game on the slate, SEA. Darnold, Wilson, and JSN stacks are my favorite, and I’m happy to double stack a mix/match with the likes of the Barnyard Dog (AJ Barner) & Rashid Shaheed.

2. Favorite Leverage: Goff/Jameson/LaPorta without Gibbs is my favorite leverage build, betting on DET’s TDs landing differently rather than betting against the offense.

3. Use value to buy ceiling combinations, not just fit every popular play into the same lineup.

4. It is fine to have pieces of DET-ARI without making that game your entire lineup. 

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5. If the early games leave me chasing, I want to change my afternoon stack with a purpose rather than swap to a random low-owned player. Look for someone who can break the slate with production, not just low pOwn.