The Biggest Start/Sit Decisions for Week 5 (Fantasy Football)

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Remember last week when I said the injury report looked like a fantasy All-Pro ballot? Well, now we have bye weeks too. The Chiefs and Panthers are off in Week 5, so your roster is getting squeezed from both sides. Sorry, Kenneth “Bone” Walker, owners. Breece Hall is still week-to-week. Justin Jefferson is a maybe. Jadarian Price is on IR. If you are looking at your lineup and wondering how a guy you picked up off waivers nine days ago is now your RB2, you are not alone.

Somebody still has to go in that flex spot, and that is where I come in. By pairing the Start/Sit recommendations from the Fantasy Footballers Start/Sit tool with my weekly analysis, I am sorting out which Week 5 Start/Sit decisions you can lock in with confidence.

Drake Maye or Tyler Shough?

Maye or Shough?

Drake Maye managers can breathe easy. In the first three weeks, last year’s MVP runner-up had just one TD pass, six INTs, and a lost fumble. But then he went into Buffalo and looked like himself again: 22-of-37 for 269 yds and three TDs, plus a team-high 54 rushing yds in a 29-26 win. That performance earned him AFC Offensive Player of the Week, an insane turnaround from weeks 1-3. What really stands out is his rushing. He has 136 rushing yds through four games, which gives you a solid floor even when his passing stats are average.

Now he is back home to face the Raiders, who are middle of the pack against opposing QBs. They rank 17th against QBs and give up 17.3 fantasy PPG to the position. All three Ballers have Maye ranked in their top nine, and the tool projects him for 23.3 points as the QB7. Crazy what changes in a week.

I love Tyler Shough. I really do. He leads the league in both completions (121) and attempts (180). Volume is not the problem. This week’s opponent is. The Vikings are 4-0 and rank first against fantasy QBs (12.3 points allowed per game). They also lead the NFL with 16 sacks. The Saints are giving up about three sacks a game, and the Falcons hit Shough 12 times on Monday night. Add a 19.5 implied team total, the lowest of any team in this article, and you are asking a lot. Mike (who is the biggest Shough supporter I know) has slid him all the way down at QB18. That’s saying something.

The Verdict: Drake Maye. Don’t overthink it. If you have Shough in a SuperFlex league, that’s fine. The volume keeps him in play. But in a one-QB league, Maye is the clear choice.

Braelon Allen or Emanuel Wilson?

Allen or Wilson?

Both are waiver-wire heroes, and this matchup is about as close as it gets this week, so let’s break it down. I told you to start Braelon Allen twice last week, and his box score was fine, not great: 14 carries for 59 yds and two catches for eight more in a 23-12 loss to the Bears. But check out his usage. Allen handled every RB carry and played 32 of the Jets’ 34 offensive snaps. That’s what we want to see. The real issue? The offense barely had the ball since Geno Smith completed just eight passes. That is a volume issue, not an Allen issue.

The role is not going anywhere yet. Aaron Glenn said Wednesday that Breece Hall (quad) remains week-to-week, so Allen is set up for another bellcow workload at home against the Browns. Now, the bad news. Cleveland ranks eighth against RBs, the 39.5 over/under is the lowest on this list, and there is drizzle in the forecast. The Jets are 2.5-point favorites, though, and a slow, ugly, run-heavy game is exactly the script where a 235-pound back gets fed.

Emanuel Wilson is the shiny new toy. With Jadarian Price on IR, Wilson piled up 21 carries for 81 yds and a TD against the Chargers, then added three catches for 39 yds and a second score on a 23-yd screen. That is 27 PPR points from a guy who had nine carries for 14 yds the week before. The setup is good again for Wilson this week. At home against the 49ers, who rank 22nd vs. RBs and allow 21.7 fantasy PPG.  Seattle is favored by 3 with a 24.25 implied total, which beats the Jets’ 21.

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The Verdict: Give me Emanuel Wilson. He has the better matchup and scoring environment.

Rome Odunze or Devaughn Vele?

Odunze or Vele?

There is just a tenth of a point separating these two in the tool: 12.8 for Odunze, 12.7 for Vele. If you were hoping the projections would make this decision for you, sorry, we will have to dig a little deeper.

Rome Odunze finally showed up last week. He caught six of seven targets for a season-high 94 yds against the Jets, including a 37-yarder, with Tyson Bagent making his first NFL start. Before that, he had not topped 52 yds in a game. He now leads the Bears with 233 receiving yds on 14 catches, though he is still looking for his first TD. The issue is his role. According to Mando’s Targets Per Route Run report, Odunze has a 17.2% TPRR, which is 63rd among qualified receivers and below the position average. Luther Burden and Colston Loveland are also getting their share, so Odunze is more of a big-play option than a volume one. However, he is creating separation, which we love to see, so I am predicting an uptick in his utilization.

The environment helps, though: the Bears are 1.5-point road favorites in Green Bay with a 23.5 implied total, the game has a 45.5 over/under, and the Packers are a middle-of-the-pack matchup at 16th against receivers.

Devaughn Vele is a different type of player. He is not a deep threat, but he’s always on the field. He has run 174 routes, tied with Chris Olave for the team lead, in an offense where Shough throws 45 times per game. Vele caught six of nine targets for 54 yds and a TD against the Falcons and has 15 targets over his last two games. Vele faces the same problem as Shough. The Saints have a 19.5 implied total against an undefeated Vikings team that leads the league in sacks. Minnesota ranks 13th against WRs, so it is not a terrible matchup, but Olave is getting most of the top targets with double-digit looks in all four games. Vele gets the leftovers.

The Verdict: Rome Odunze, but just barely. I will take the receiver in the game with the higher total and the team expected to score more. If you are in full PPR and want a safe eight to ten points, Vele is a fine choice too.

T.J. Hockenson or Kenyon Sadiq?

Hockenson or Sadiq?

Thirteen targets. Thirteen catches. T.J. Hockenson caught everything thrown his way against the Dolphins last week, finishing with 119 yds in a 15-10 win while Justin Jefferson watched from the sideline. He played 83% of the snaps and had a 35% target share. For comparison, he had 13 targets in the first three games combined.

Hockenson is Jason’s TE Start of the Week, and the matchup is a big reason. The Saints rank 27th against TEs. The one thing to watch is Justin Jefferson. He was limited on Wednesday and says he plans to play.  If Jefferson plays, Hockenson probably will not see 13 targets again, but he doesn’t need to. A TE7 projection of 13.0 points already accounts for that, and with Jordan Addison also banged up, Kyler Murray will need Hockenson either way.

Kenyon Sadiq is an interesting option, and I do not want his Week 4 goose egg to scare you away. He went catchless on four targets against the Bears, but he also tied for the team lead in targets in a game where Geno Smith completed just eight passes. This season, the rookie has 12 catches for 143 yds and 2 TDs on 18 targets. Mando’s Targets Per Route Run report has him on the “Heating Up” list with a 33.3% TPRR last week and a 26.5% mark for the year, ninth among TEs. Cleveland is a good matchup on paper at 23rd against TEs, but there might not be enough volume for Sadiq to take advantage.

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The Verdict: T.J. Hockenson. The Ballers all agree: Andy has him at TE6, Mike and Jason at TE8, and no one has Sadiq higher than TE13. Hold onto Sadiq, since he is trending up, but start Hockenson this week for the points.

Byes on one side, injuries on the other, and you are in the middle trying to field nine healthy players. That’s Week 5. The good news is that two of these four decisions are easy, and the other two are close enough that you are choosing between two solid options. I will take that kind of problem any week. If you are still stressing over a tough Start/Sit call right before kickoff, take a deep breath. You can always reach out to me on X or catch Mike live on his Sunday Start/Sit show for help. The Fantasy Footballers Start/Sit tool is also there for any last-minute tiebreakers. Now go set those lineups and let’s add another win!

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