NFL DFS Pace of Play for Week 13 (Fantasy Football)

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Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matters in a world where volume is king. In 2020, on average, teams ran a play 0.8 seconds per play slower in positive game scripts than they did in neutral game script.

Each week, I’ll highlight high total game environments factoring in their pace metrics, stacks to consider for tournaments, and five dart throws to shoot for the moon with.

Make sure to check out the DFS Podcast where Betz and I breakdown the main slate and highlight some of our favorite plays of the week.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Cincinnati Bengals (-3.0)- O/U: 50.5

Team

Team Implied Total Neutral Pace 2021 Pass Rate
Los Angeles Chargers 23.8 6th 66%

Cincinnati Bengals

26.8 30th 59%

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This game is a battle of opposing offensive philosophies. While the weapons at Joe Burrow‘s disposal might be enticing for fantasy purposes, HC Zac Taylor prefers to shift into neutral with the leads. The last couple of weeks have made this evidently clear with Joe Mixon seeing 30 & 28 carries in convincing wins over Las Vegas and Pittsburgh. In Cincinnati wins this year, Burrow is averaging just 28 pass attempts per game. They rely on his efficiency and a TD rate that jumped to 6.5 percent thus far. So what do we do with the Bengals in tournaments? The easy call is to ride Mixon yet again as the Cincinnati offensive line ranks 7th in adjusted line yards, a surprising number considering how much scrutiny this unit came under in the off-season. Mixon against one of the league’s premier run funnel units feels almost too easy. The Chargers rank 26th in defensive adjusted line yards, 30th in DvP versus fantasy RBs, and dead last in rush DVOA. Also his correlation (over CIN’s last 17 games) with the rest of the offense suggests you play Mixon and no one else:

Position Player Correlation Games
DST Cincinnati Defense 0.3 11
WR Tee Higgins 0.2 9
QB Joe Burrow -0.33 11
TE CJ Uzomah -0.37 10
WR Tyler Boyd -0.44 11
WR Ja’Marr Chase -0.57 11
RB Samaje Perine -0.74 8

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