NFL DFS FanDuel GPP Picks Week 13 (Fantasy Football)
Building winning GPP lineups, by definition, is tough. There are, however, some key things to look for when filling out your roster. First and foremost is ceiling, we want the players with the potential to score the most points. Next is leverage, we want the players that fall through the cracks. Finally, we have to build a lineup that tells a winning story through game script and stacking.
For a deeper dive into GPP strategy, check out the Tournament Strategy episode that Borg and Betz put out last season, and make sure to stay locked into the DFS and Betting Podcast.
A final note before diving into the picks. Don’t ignore the Cash Picks article put out by Kyle Borgognoni. His article pairs perfectly with my GPP picks article, as it’s typically a good idea to mix in some value plays, especially if they fit the GPP-winning story you write.
Quarterbacks
C.J. Stroud @ JAC – $8,000
Stroud is suffering through a sophomore slump compared to the expectations most had for him entering the season, but we only care about this week for DFS and he gets the best matchup possible. He takes on the Jaguars, who rank dead last in defensive EPA/dropback and allow a league-worst 6.6 fantasy points above expectation to quarterbacks. For reference, the next worst team (Tampa Bay) allows 3.8. He is also due for some positive regression, as he has produced -5.08 fantasy points over expectation (FPOE) over the last four weeks, according to Marvin Elequin’s model. To quote his Expected Points and Opportunity article, “In short, it should be a productive week for the Texans’ offense, likely leading to plenty of fantasy points for C.J. Stroud and his receivers.”
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