FanDuel GPP Picks for Week 11
Favorite Games of the Week:
Lions at Panthers
Falcons at Saints
Patriots at Texans
Additional Favorite Spots of the Week:
Steelers (at Jaguars)
Chargers (at home vs. Jets)
Vikings (at home vs. Cowboys)
Packers (at Colts)
Matt Stafford at Panthers $7,500
This Lions at Panthers game is my favorite of the week and I’m pumped about it since there should be leverage to be had. Many were likely going to overlook it anyway, and that should definitely be the case now that both Teddy and Stafford are banged up. We’ll monitor the injury report but for now, I expect both to play. Stafford ranks 12th in passing yards per game (267) and 11th in pass TDs per game (1.9) and leads a Lions offense ranked 14th in DVOA. He gets to play against a Panthers defense that ranks 27th in overall defensive DVOA and 24th in pass DVOA.
Cam Newton at Texans $7,600
Cam’s 19.5 FanDuel points per game rank 19th most in the league thanks in large part to his nine rush TDs. When the Patriots get in close, they design goal-line runs for Cam and there is no sign of that stopping anytime soon. Cam could go absolutely nuclear in this spot against a bad Texans defense all around. Houston ranks 28th in overall defensive DVOA, 22nd in pass DVOA, and dead last in Run DVOA.
Deshaun Watson vs. Patriots $7,700
The Patriots at Texans could potentially be another very fun one for fantasy. Watson ranks eighth in passing yards per game (282.1), ninth in pass TDs per game (2), and leads a Texans offense ranked 15th in DVOA. He gets to play at home against a Patriots defense that ranks dead last in overall defensive DVOA and 30th in pass DVOA.
James Conner at Jaguars $7,000
Conner ranks 18th in the league in opportunities per game (17.7) and the Steelers are 10 point favorites this week against an awful Jaguars team and defense that ranks 31st in overall defensive DVOA and 20th in run DVOA. Despite the pass-happy game plan, Conner still played on 88% of the offensive snaps last week. This is a fantastic time to play Conner at a low ownership percentage.
Derrick Henry at Ravens $8,200
The big dog ranks third in opportunities per game (24.6) and fourth in FanDuel points per game (17.4) out of all RBs on the main slate this week. Anytime you can play King Henry at a low ownership percentage, you must consider it. This is a tough matchup on paper but without Calais Campbell, Damien Harris just shredded this defense last week for 121 yards. Campbell projects to miss Week 11 as well.
Mike Davis vs. Lions $7,400
Davis has slowed down over the past month and is likely to come in at a relatively low ownership percentage. That makes him an intriguing tournament play this week at home in a great fantasy game against a Lions defense that ranks 25th in overall defensive DVOA and 27th in run DVOA.
Salvon Ahmed at Broncos $5,600
Ahmed saw 22 opportunities and played on 76% of the offensive snaps last week. The Dolphins are currently 3.5 point favorites on the road in this one. Expect Ahmed to be super low owned. There’s some leverage to be had here.
D.J. Moore $7,100, Robby Anderson $6,300, and Curtis Samuel $5,600 vs. Lions
Targets per game on the season: Robby 8.6, D.J. 6.9, and Curtis 5.3. Targets per game over the past three weeks: Robby 9, D.J. 5.3, and Curtis 6.3. All three are in great spots at home against a Lions defense that ranks 25th in overall defensive DVOA and 23rd in pass DVOA. Anderson is my favorite tournament play since his usage hasn’t changed, his production has just dipped recently. That happens with WRs. This could be a blowup spot for him. And I like Samuel as well. His usage has picked up and he takes on additional responsibilities with McCaffrey out. Samuel posted a rush TD in back-to-back games before McCaffrey returned against the Chiefs as well.
Will Fuller $7,100 and Brandin Cooks $6,100 vs. Patriots
Targets over the past three weeks: Cooks 8.7 and Fuller 6.3. Both are solid plays in an exciting fantasy game at home against a Patriots defense that ranks dead last in overall defensive DVOA and 30th in pass DVOA. But it’s Cooks’ price that really doesn’t make any sense. He’s too cheap and it’s something I’d like to take advantage of.
Davante Adams at Colts $9,500
Adams leads the league in targets per game (11.6) and all WRs in target share (34%). A bit banged-up this week after not going nuclear in a great matchup against the Jaguars, many will fade Adams in a tougher spot on the road against the Colts. This immediately puts Adams on the tournament radar because anytime we can gain some leverage by playing him, we have to think about it. Adams ranks fifth out of all players on the main slate this weekend in FanDuel points per game (22.4).
Mike Williams vs. Jets $5,900
This is a spot where Justin Herbert could go absolutely nuclear at home against a Jets defense that ranks 29th in overall defensive DVOA and dead last in pass DVOA. The Jets have allowed the ninth-most FanDuel points per game (32.9) to the WR position. And Williams offers big-play potential. Mike Will ranks fifth in the league in deep targets (20+ yards) (18).
Jakobi Meyers at Texans $6,000
Meyers has averaged 10.3 targets per game over the past three weeks and played on 98% of the offensive snaps last week, even with N’Keal Harry‘s return to the lineup. This is a fun fantasy game and one where Cam Newton could find rare success through the air with Meyers against a Texans defense that ranks 28th in overall defensive DVOA and 22nd in pass DVOA.
DeVante Parker at Broncos $6,200
With Preston Williams on IR, Parker is bound to have a big game soon. Tua has thrown two TDs in each of his past two starts and Parker has a decent projected matchup against A.J. Bouye. Parker can likely be rostered at less than seven percent owned this weekend.
Mark Andrews vs. Titans $6,500
Nick Boyle is on IR and that could actually be extremely significant. Last year’s Ravens utilized three TEs and now two of them are gone. Boyle is hurt and Hayden Hurst is on the Falcons. Baltimore’s passing offense operates within the middle of the field and that’s Andrews’ territory. Coming off a nine target, seven reception game for 61 yards, Andrews could blow up at home in a favorable spot this week.
Eric Ebron at Jaguars $5,400
Ebron played on 85% of the offensive snaps last week and has seen six targets in back-to-back games. Ebron gets to play against a Jaguars defense that has allowed the fourth-most FanDuel points per game (12.5) to the TE position.
Hayden Hurst at Saints $5,500
Hurst has seen at least seven targets in three straight games, gets to play in a great fantasy game, and has a favorable matchup against a Saints defense that has allowed the seventh-most FanDuel points per game (12.2) to the TE position.
Chargers vs. Jets $4,500
The Chargers defense has struggled this season and continues to be banged-up. Still, they get to play at home this week against a Jets offense that ranks 31st in DVOA. After Joe Flacco had a flash in the pan performance against an awful Patriots’ defense a few weeks ago, people likely won’t be flocking to roster the Chargers D/ST here. That makes them a solid tournament play.
Eagles at Browns $4,000
The Eagles defense ranks 10th in run DVOA. If they can minimize the Browns run game, they can help us win tournaments. Baker Mayfield, especially without Odell Beckham on the field, is a turnover machine waiting to happen when asked to be more than a game manager. This is a sneaky tournament D/ST play.